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Tulip Trouncer Threat IV


Baroclinic Zone

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That system in PA and OH is producing some really impressive obs...a ton of 1/2 and 1/4 +SN obs there. Won't really impact us much except maybe some light qpf, but impressive to see those visibilities lighting up the sfc plot

Will, the name gave us down here almost half inch liquid from this first s/w, do you buy that at all?

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Hey guys, missed the 2-5pm posts while at a seminar, though got a glimpse of the 12z Euro excitement just before...

Impressions:

1- Euro and Euro ensembles have been most consistent in the past 18 hours

2- NW trend has halted, and perhaps seeing a correction back SE

3- NAM still having difficulty, organizes low too late in an inconsistent fashion... this may however be keeping a further SE track

Given #1, any reads on Euro ensembles for Boston metro? The low res maps are worthless.

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There's no high terrain in northern Essex County, MA is there?

There are some more rural towns there and also State Forests lands (one being in North Andover/Middleton, Harold Parker ) that are notoriously colder and icier than surrounding towns. Parts of that forest are 300-400' Highest hill is 420'. Far better location in marginal events than areas surrounding such as Wilmington, or Reading.

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850 low goes from LI to BOS - not a great track for the CP, 700 low goes from roughly NYC to west of ORH, not so good for mby, pretty solid for the berks, monads. need those levels further south and east if we have a chance for anything more than 1-3"

Edit: Looks like wrap around stuff could be pretty decent for some of us. (definitely not what we'd want to rely on for accums)

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GFS looks a shade SE of the 12z run, but not by much. Its a little more realistic with its WCB precip on this run though. Not spitting out like 1.5" in 6 hours well inland...keeps it confined more toward the Cape which makes a little more sense.

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There are some more rural towns there and also State Forests lands (one being in North Andover/Middleton, Harold Parker ) that are notoriously colder and icier than surrounding towns. Parts of that forest are 300-400' Highest hill is 420'. Far better location in marginal events than areas surrounding such as Wilmington, or Reading.

Ahh.. they do seem to have a tendency to jackpot in Essex County. Seems like the region of the coastal plain that sort of transitions to a decidedly snowier area... they have a tendency to jackpot there. Places like Topsfield, Georgetown, Haverhill and Andover seem to come in with higher snowfall totals than their elevations would imply... but that might be purely attributed to their latitude advantage over other MA coastal plain locations.

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That system in PA and OH is producing some really impressive obs...a ton of 1/2 and 1/4 +SN obs there. Won't really impact us much except maybe some light qpf, but impressive to see those visibilities lighting up the sfc plot

Some of the hi res models have a couple inches of snow in CT by dawn tomorrow with that precip.. You'd think the dry air would eat up alot of it..but maybe not?

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I think verbatim much of the precip for boston on the 18z GFS falls as snow or rain/snow mix but has a hard time accumulating due to surface temperatures. Mets, thoughts? Seems like the upper levels warm after the dry slot punches through.

It really thumps between 06z and 12z...overnight, so it actually might be accumulating for BOS. We'll have to see how much boundary layer flow tries to warm from the east but obviously SSTs this time of the year are less impactful.

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Some of the hi res models have a couple inches of snow in CT by dawn tomorrow with that precip.. You'd think the dry air would eat up alot of it..but maybe not?

I think it will probably just be weenie snow in the air...I doubt there's enough to measure from that stuff, but you never know. Its been ripping out in PA and OH.

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I think it will probably just be weenie snow in the air...I doubt there's enough to measure from that stuff, but you never know. Its been ripping out in PA and OH.

That's a really nice s/w with that, but yeah it looks like it may shear out a bit. Maybe better chance of snow, down by Kev?

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Looks like a period of snow down here tonight after 11 pm or so, I could easily say interior portions of sw ct getting 1-3 inches above 3 or 4 hundo, especially around ridgefield, where some areas tickle close to 1k.

Dendrites tonight, Yankee baseball tomorrow :thumbsup:

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I think it will probably just be weenie snow in the air...I doubt there's enough to measure from that stuff, but you never know. Its been ripping out in PA and OH.

Interesting to see the hi-res stuff pirnt out like 3-4 inches of snow in parts of CT by tomorrow morning...

I'd bet against that..but I'd also bet there will def be snow in the air much of the day tomorrow..that wouldn't stick all that well

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