cpickett79 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Surprised (pleasantly) to see those high amounts out here in GC. I'd have expected them to be lower given the pretty significant drops in qpf that the NAM/GFS are showing. I suppose I can hope the cooler/eastern shifts boost my ratios. 41.2/26 mix of sprinkles and weenie flakes. agree and also it says something like (john says) that it's 40 and snow is already mixing in w/ lite precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think the 6" is a bit conservative for here too. N ORH county looks good with near a foot but I don't think it dwindles down that quickly to here since I think the mixing should be little or non existent here...the gradient should probably be pushed south and tightened in S ORH county near the CT border. But obviously it could be a fine line between the haves and have nots. I'm just kind of looking at everything now but the GFS has a period of S+ it seems between 09z and 12Z. That alone might argue for a few inches. I honestly could see him getting 3" or 8", but my guess is taking the over on 3 for him. Hopefully the euro follows through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 some of those snowfall maps have the look of a SW flow event and not a true nor'easter. Yeah because this is acting like a SWFE. The mid level low centers don't close off and generally past west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 JB already calling bust on his updated map which had 12+ for a good chunk of interior NE, NY and NE PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 NOAA scaling back? lol - That just about takes me out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will, what was the verdict on the GEM and UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Time for my third map.... going to make it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I don't mind. lol It's because of the trend toward later development. figures lol...that snowfall map that was posted looks completely off...I'm still in some trouble if the 12z GFS verifies. I need similar intensity and a nudge east or an earlier wrap up in the same location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Time for my third map.... going to make it now May as well pretend that eastern CT doesn't exist on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 would like mid level lows to close off otherwise i dont' see anyone getting a foot or much over 1 inch qpf..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Time for my third map.... going to make it now Good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will, what was the verdict on the GEM and UK UK is east of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 figures lol...that snowfall map that was posted looks completely off...I'm still in some trouble if the 12z GFS verifies. I need similar intensity and a nudge east or an earlier wrap up in the same location. mine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 UK is east of the benchmark. LOL I'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro comes in around 2 or around 3? Refresh my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will, what was the verdict on the GEM and UK GEM looked pretty good...snowy and high qpf...Ukie looked a little more iffy, had the ML 0C line getting up near the pike but our areas are probably ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro comes in around 2 or around 3? Refresh my memory. It will be in by 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro comes in around 2 or around 3? Refresh my memory. Verdict in about 25 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 mine? lol no...yours looks fine...the one with the GFS snowfall that jackpots me with 10-12" when in reality I'm right along the 850mb 0C isotherm for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah because this is acting like a SWFE. The mid level low centers don't close off and generally past west. Makes no difference to my locale but I don't think it's looking great. The more offshore and diffuse low which may be where we are heading won't have the dynamics needed in the lowlands. Odd situation that has the weird feeling Scott described earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The Canadian was pretty impressive for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lol no...yours looks fine...the one with the GFS snowfall that jackpots me with 10-12" when in reality I'm right along the 850mb 0C isotherm for hours. Oh ok, hahaha I was worried for a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Makes no difference to my locale but I don't think it's looking great. The more offshore and diffuse low which may be where we are heading won't have the dynamics needed in the lowlands. Odd situation that has the weird feeling Scott described earlier Yeah for people who thought they were getting 12"+ in SNE it's not good. For Maine it looks like it organizes in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LOL our in-house algorithm says congrats Ray on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Water Vapor, radar suggest wagons south and east, not sure how much qpf gets into western mass or for that matter north of rte 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 39/26, It's been spitting snow from 2k down to 1400' since this AM. Nice flakes at times but hasn't done much, just ambience. Chimney smoke is dropping toward the ground and drifting West. Snow Wind. Sure feels like snow, sure looks like snow. I think it going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lol no...yours looks fine...the one with the GFS snowfall that jackpots me with 10-12" when in reality I'm right along the 850mb 0C isotherm for hours. That map was whacked.....gradient seemed to simply contour the coast line, which is generally the idea, but it considered the ocean too much imo....especially this time of yr. Needs to factor mid levels more heavily and marine influence less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Makes no difference to my locale but I don't think it's looking great. The more offshore and diffuse low which may be where we are heading won't have the dynamics needed in the lowlands. Odd situation that has the weird feeling Scott described earlier This is what has me a little nervous for the Ct River Valley even though I have good latitude (14 mi from VT). Needless to say the least favorable outcome for me would be 10 hours of snow that amounts to little or no accumulation because the storm is weaker east and I get downsloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 UK is east of the benchmark. :thumbsdown: Big time bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Makes no difference to my locale but I don't think it's looking great. The more offshore and diffuse low which may be where we are heading won't have the dynamics needed in the lowlands. Odd situation that has the weird feeling Scott described earlier violently agree.....here's hoping the euro is strong. will we EVER EVER get a storm that is modeled well like 4 days out and is a generally 6-12 inches of snow for nearly all of SNE....does this not F$%%(N happen anymore. or how about a snow storm modeled well about 3 days out with SNE confident of a moderate or greater snow...has this happened in the last 2 years (since i moved back) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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