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Tulip Trouncer Threat IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Climo is messin with a lot of people's thoughts. Best shot at sig April snow in a decade will do that. Overnight dump increases the odds IMO. Man I hope the dynamics get insane. Despite my tongue in cheek forecast this has great potential, and yes hubbub I still think you get 14.

I hope this things rips a hole in the atmosphere...

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I was in Connecticut in 97, and I was 9 years old.

It was pretty amazing. Rain mixed with snow around Noon Monday after a warm Sunday in the mid 60s. By mid afternoon it was all snow and by 5 it started to accumulate. We were still in Standard Time until the first Sat in April then. I come home (from the North End area where there was no accums) to about 3-4 inches of slop on my deck and snowing heavily. I head over to my friend's house to watch the NCAA finals and not the wet pavement in the alley behind my house. Snow is heavy and it is growing colder. Three hours laster I pass the same alleyway and there is about a foot down. Tsnow the entire time lasting till morning. Going home in blizzard conds I marveled at the misery of people trying go get around. Completely shut down Boston for 4/1...Green Line stopped running due to so many power outages from downed lines. An epic event. After the snow stopped, even though temps remained near freezing, we lost 6 inches by dark. April.

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That is my honest take....if I thought Dec 1996, my guesses would reflect that.

I think lat will help due to the trends to develop it later.

Yeah to be honest with you, I'd rather be where you are now than at elevation in CT.

I really don't think this is done trending yet, either. Whenever these things start to look like late bloomers, it usually continues that way for a few runs.

I know the RUC is awful but its like a complete miss tomorrow... its headed in the direction of the NAM from a few days ago. And the RUC is typically too far NW with coastal lows, at least that's what Messenger and Will always say.

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hpc agrees with the new eastern solutions.

Even on this gray raw day the Stadium looks beautiful....28 its destiny.

Gfs is flopping. Look in sc/nc 6hr qpf forecasts ending 18z. Big miss by the gfs because it has the little 500mb spin modeled that doesn't exist. It carries that over the Delmarva and then offshore jersey and over us later. May well be all feedback.

IMO gfs is up to it's old tricks. How that effects the forecast I don't know. Maybe it would have been colder and east without it, maybe warmer and west.

I don't care much either way just pointing it out.

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Hubbdave up to Jaffrey is going to be ground zero I think.

What do you think for places Just east of there will? Like MBY lol towards ports and portland

I really don't know how a WSW is not up for here to be honest

Jerry.. please post ggem maps!

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Yeah, the RUC last night also had the first wave going through ACK and giving SNE snow today. It's garbage outside of 6Hr

Yeah to be honest with you, I'd rather be where you are now than at elevation in CT.

I really don't think this is done trending yet, either. Whenever these things start to look like late bloomers, it usually continues that way for a few runs.

I know the RUC is awful but its like a complete miss tomorrow... its headed in the direction of the NAM from a few days ago. And the RUC is typically too far NW with coastal lows, at least that's what Messenger and Will always say.

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...CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1...

 

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF NAM AND GFS

 

THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY

OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...AND LESS INTENSE WITH THE

ULTIMATE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.  THE

NAM...GFS...GEM REGIONAL...AND UKMET ARE SLOWER THAN THE 00Z/31

ECMWF TO PHASE THE ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE

INITIAL WAVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH DELAYS THE RAPID

DEEPENING PHASE AND THE CHANCE FOR A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO

CLOSE OFF AND HOVER NEAR LONG ISLAND.  THE 00Z/31 ECENS MEAN WAS

ALSO SKEWED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE SHEARED SOLUTIONS...AND

PERHAPS MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE 00Z/31 UKMET BROKE DRAMATICALLY

WITH THE SLOWER...INTENSE SOLUTION IT HAD LOCKED ONTO FOR MANY

DAYS.  AS A RESULT...WILL RECOMMEND A SOLUTION ALONG THE LINES OF

NEW NAM AND GFS.  THE DETAILS OF THOSE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT...SO

HOPEFULLY ONE OF THE OTHER NEW RUNS WILL OFFER A MORE SOLID

FORECAST.

 

 

 

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...CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF NAM AND GFS

THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM REGIONAL HAVE ALL TRENDED SLIGHTLY

OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...AND LESS INTENSE WITH THE

ULTIMATE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE

NAM...GFS...GEM REGIONAL...AND UKMET ARE SLOWER THAN THE 00Z/31

ECMWF TO PHASE THE ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE

INITIAL WAVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH DELAYS THE RAPID

DEEPENING PHASE AND THE CHANCE FOR A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO

CLOSE OFF AND HOVER NEAR LONG ISLAND. THE 00Z/31 ECENS MEAN WAS

ALSO SKEWED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MORE SHEARED SOLUTIONS...AND

PERHAPS MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...THE 00Z/31 UKMET BROKE DRAMATICALLY

WITH THE SLOWER...INTENSE SOLUTION IT HAD LOCKED ONTO FOR MANY

DAYS. AS A RESULT...WILL RECOMMEND A SOLUTION ALONG THE LINES OF

NEW NAM AND GFS. THE DETAILS OF THOSE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT...SO

HOPEFULLY ONE OF THE OTHER NEW RUNS WILL OFFER A MORE SOLID

FORECAST.

I like that....I like it alot.

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NOAA - for Marlborough, MA:

This Afternoon: A chance of rain, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 50. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain before midnight, then snow between midnight and 1am, then rain and snow after 1am. Low around 32. East wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Friday: Rain, possibly mixed with snow. High near 36. North wind between 10 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

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