CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS is like 6 hours of snow then dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Any chance this verifies? Noyes was 100% convinced that an all snow solution in BOS was impossible because no strong High in place. GFS is all snow for BOS. Warmer for HFD/TOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Like the Catskills get 0.3" of liquid lol Highly unlikely given the track of the mid level low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Any chance this verifies? Noyes was 100% convinced that an all snow solution in BOS was impossible because no strong High in place. It's possible but I wouldn't lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 6 hour storm there on the GFS... still marginal above H85 for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Highly unlikely given the track of the mid level low Yeah i know but one thing to note is that the 700mb low doesn't really close until the thing is over SNE. It's slower to wrap up which is why you see at least initially not as much QPF out west. The 850 low, on the other hand, closes off sooner and just in time for Massachusetts to keep cold at 850. It's more borderline down here for me and Kevin just because of latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's still got that little QPF max along the track, perhaps it's due to strong low level convergence? Recall the Boxing Day storm had this too. GFS says we are mostly done by 12z. It's more of a 6-8 hr thump. I'm still a little unsure of the QPF situation. I think it's some degree of feedback. No doubt it has an erroneous 500mb vmax into the carolinas that travels up over us. By 12 hours it's just east of jersey. Nam doesn't have it. Ruc doesn't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Probability stronger for a BOS snowfall? It's possible but I wouldn't lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Highly unlikely given the track of the mid level low You just cancelled the storm... : ( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Probability stronger for a BOS snowfall? I'd still say 1-3 for BOS but JUST NW probably 3-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah that's what makes me a little uneasy here. You don't want it mucking up the advection processes. Something to watch. I guess I can't complain since it's colder. yeah i noticed yesterday a lot of sref members had some big qpf bullseyes as well. there are some flags with this system for those places with a chance at something meaningful. just hard to tell which ones to ignore and which ones to heed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think it's some degree of feedback. No doubt it has an erroneous 500mb vmax into the carolinas that travels up over us. By 12 hours it's just east of jersey. Nam doesn't have it. Ruc doesn't have it. It could be, hopefully the euro sheds a little light later on. Convection occurs a little more easier this time of year, but regardless something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like you and Kevin are on the same page. Good luck! In the same bathtub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 yeah i noticed yesterday a lot of sref members had some big qpf bullseyes as well. there are some flags with this system for those places with a chance at something meaningful. just hard to tell which ones to ignore and which ones to heed. Worst post of the day. It's easy. Ignore all the signs that point to less QPF or warmer temps and embrace all the signs that point toward colder and snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Worst post of the day. It's easy. Ignore all the signs that point to less QPF or warmer temps and embrace all the signs that point toward colder and snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS always seems to lower QPF right before a storm, and the NAM bumps it up.. Although, I think it is a little better of a run than 06Z was, a little better on QPF. No complaints by me. Double digits all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 gfs clown map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 yeah i noticed yesterday a lot of sref members had some big qpf bullseyes as well. there are some flags with this system for those places with a chance at something meaningful. just hard to tell which ones to ignore and which ones to heed. I'm hoping the next couple of models help out a bit. You kind of get that weird feeling with this storm...for better or worse..lol. I think for my locale it's more the temp issue, rather than QPF. I'd still want to be out by Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 "The ball is comn' outta the GFS' hand really good...again, we like that...that's good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 "The ball is comn' outta the GFS' hand really good...again, wel like that...that's good" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LOL "The NAM is workn' really hard and he's a great kid...I'll tell ya what, we're not gonna run from him. He's gonna help us @ some point this season". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Colder than 97 , dynamics as impressive for only 8 hours though, elevations win but Western CP love. Final calls Litchfield spring is great Libations 3-5 NW but I go to school in final four land Connecticut. 8-10 Ski in Alaska missing out MRG 12-16 MPM godawful QPF Yuck. 10-14 CT. Anything under 8 inches sucks ( is he talking about snow?) Rain. 5-7 CT one more shot at making snowbanks Blizz. 7-12 Cold. Beer and women Mizer 4-6 Will the encyclopedia Orhwx. 12-16 Skier wishes he was in Vermont 2-4 Phil. Cc see ya next winter Weather 1-2 Scott don't shoot the Messenger 2-3 Scooter sometimes sucks to live near the Coastal 4-7 Jerry there is no other WxFella 6-8 Ray Celica will not collapse Benchmark 8-10 Hunchback why is Wa Wa closing 14-18 B suspended longer than Ben Rothlesberger Irving 12-16 Jay I lift heavy things and put them down SBOSWx 14-18 Arnold Maine chicks with farmer jeans are hot 14-16 Powdah just buried with feet of snow freak 16-18 No changes, let it rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 "The ball is comn' outta the GFS' hand really good...again, we like that...that's good" "we're ok with that" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 700 low on the new nam/gfs closes off a full 6 hours later than previous runs. it doesn't close off until 15z tomorrow on the 12z gfs. That is too late for the catskills and even Albany now. Gees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 No changes, let it rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 "we're ok with that" Nice contribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 700 low on the new nam/gfs closes off a full 6 hours later than previous runs. it doesn't close off until 15z tomorrow on the 12z gfs. That is too late for the catskills and even Albany now. Gees. Yup that's going to be a big problem for many forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It could be, hopefully the euro sheds a little light later on. Convection occurs a little more easier this time of year, but regardless something to watch. I think the euro shedded light with the 00z run last night...I knew I shoulda went with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 No complaints by me. Double digits all the way. You're really feelin' it for this one - double digits for PWM proper as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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