Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Trends continue.........east but weaker, less dynamic, although the gfs is colder, not nearly the qpf, looks like a mix here, but mass looks good all the way to boston perhaps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 East of CHH by about 30-40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Kevin, your area is tricky. Maybe the GFS goes se again, but there's a weird feeling with this one. I certainly would feel better if it went se for that 6-8". Yeah I'd like to see the GFS and Euro tick SE and keep things wrapped up to start talking about 6" totals there. Well it did..so 6 + it is!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like the GFS ticked a bit colder esp. for NW areas like interior SE NY and Litchfield County Gfs drives the precip from lift that should have already been rocking out precip over nc/sc by now. Where is it? Follow thru 0-24 at 700vv. Nam is much more subdued there and maybe correct? Look at h3 on the gfs 500mb Vorticity....nw south carolina. Nam doesn't have that spinup neither does the ruc. Gfs is likely having some feedback issues....what role do they play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Wow GFS is balls cold perfect 850 track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Next run will diminish it to a simple wind shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 major qpf bombs off the se coast at hr 12 double barrel lows, feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'll take less QPF because I wasn't getting 15", anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Light on QPF and compact though which is odd because of how wound up the 850 low looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Light on QPF and compact though which is odd because of how wound up the 850 low looks 5-9 now..Euro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 wicked dry slot on the GFS tomorrow morning compared to the previous run. 850mb 0c line straddles my area for much of the storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 gfs snows on western ct, even down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 wicked dry slot on the GFS tomorrow morning compared to the previous run. 850mb 0c line straddles my area for much of the storm lol. That is to be expected, whenever the H7 low goes west of you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 gfs snows on western ct, even down here It's close.... but probably not much. 850s are warm to start down on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Light on QPF and compact though which is odd because of how wound up the 850 low looks might be that massive qpf bomb that it sends across SE areas robbing some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 might be that massive qpf bomb that it sends across SE areas robbing some Yeah based on that 850 low track I think it's probably screwing western areas a bit too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's close.... but probably not much. 850s are warm to start down on the coast. heavy heavy north of the merritt win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's still got that little QPF max along the track, perhaps it's due to strong low level convergence? Recall the Boxing Day storm had this too. GFS says we are mostly done by 12z. It's more of a 6-8 hr thump. I'm still a little unsure of the QPF situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's close.... but probably not much. 850s are warm to start down on the coast. I think its a mix anywhere west of bdr on the coast, new caanan, wilton, shelton, trumbull and especially up towards ridgefield and dxr should get a slushy coating to couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS sorta sucks balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Like the Catskills get 0.3" of liquid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is it just me, or is that GFS a complete snow storm for BOS and most of mass except the Cape? It's close.... but probably not much. 850s are warm to start down on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 might be that massive qpf bomb that it sends across SE areas robbing some Yeah that's what makes me a little uneasy here. You don't want it mucking up the advection processes. Something to watch. I guess I can't complain since it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Seems like thing have trended towards the KING (shocker), just less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think its a mix anywhere west of bdr on the coast, new caanan, wilton, shelton, trumbull and especially up towards ridgefield and dxr should get a slushy coating to couple inches GFS is still very warm around 800mb on the coast. By the time temps drop it looks like the precip is just about over. Even HFD looks to start as rain and flip to a couple slushy inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Not a shocker based on my own analysis a while ago: UPDATE AT 910 AM... THE 06Z GFS IS COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 00Z ECMWF 850-700 MB 1540 LINE IS A TAD COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF OUR CURRENT SNOW/RAIN LINE. AS A RESULT...AM UPPING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN HAMPDEN...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN WORCESTER... AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN MA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NH...AND HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT. NAM 2M TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THOSE AREAS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE EXPANSION OF ADVISORIES ABOUT ONE TIER EASTWARD. 4th person to post this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS always seems to lower QPF right before a storm, and the NAM bumps it up.. Although, I think it is a little better of a run than 06Z was, a little better on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is it just me, or is that GFS a complete snow storm for BOS and most of mass except the Cape? GFS is all snow for BOS. Warmer for HFD/TOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 4th person to post this. No reposting is done when you guys have 4'of upslope or we see a 978mb nuke over Boston. Post that stake pic denoting the 9' OTG @ Mansfield....I missed it the first 12 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS drives a hellaceous snow shield into east coastal MA ala 12/26/10. The rest of you can eat my toe cheese... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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