CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 New BOX map looks good. I probably would go a little more bullish around ORH but overall good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Agreed, not a fan either. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS will come further east. I have no data to back it up, just a hunch. I'm thinking 6" here. Still not a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Similar on ours too. has some heavy rain BDL/HFD south and east alongthe Pike to BOS. Even ORH looks to at least mix with rain if not go over Yeah it's driving mid level warmth very far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Similar on ours too. has some heavy rain BDL/HFD south and east alongthe Pike to BOS. Even ORH looks to at least mix with rain if not go over Sounds NAM based..toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Analysis for 12z. Very impressive jet streak digging the long wave trough. That's 180kt at GGW in Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Sounds NAM based..toss It's a WRF model but I'm not sure why I'd toss it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ryan, you've done a great job analyzing this system. A lot of people...even down to the coast...even here are/have been expecting snow. In order to get good snow this time of year the moon and the stars have to align perfectly and it just aint happening. Nobody should be surprised. The final third of this season beyond February 2nd has been terrible and not even the weather equivalent of Karl Rove can spin this any other way. When's it supposed to warm up?? I respectfully disagree. I remember the April 1, '96 storm and Boston got hammered with nearly 2'. Maybe for you on the south coast you will likely get rain, but BOX is showing me with .7". I find that hard to believe. I also think it's better to be safe than sorry. I honestly believe I have a ~50% chance of seeing a foot of tree snapping power line falling mashed potatoes. Edit, appears BOX upped my totals to about 4". Reasonable, but I still think shy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 New BOX map just posted. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's a WRF model but I'm not sure why I'd toss it lol Because it's initilized off the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Because it's initilized off the NAM Actually it's not. GFS boundary conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Not a shocker based on my own analysis a while ago: UPDATE AT 910 AM... THE 06Z GFS IS COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 00Z ECMWF 850-700 MB 1540 LINE IS A TAD COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF OUR CURRENT SNOW/RAIN LINE. AS A RESULT...AM UPPING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN HAMPDEN...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN WORCESTER... AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN MA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NH...AND HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT. NAM 2M TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THOSE AREAS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE EXPANSION OF ADVISORIES ABOUT ONE TIER EASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 heavy snow friday for inland ct over six inches people and tv weather people will be surprise but i wont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 heavy snow friday for inland ct over six inches people and tv weather people will be surprise but i wont Looks like you and Kevin are on the same page. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Actually it's not. GFS boundary conditions. Lol. Rgem did the same type thing. It bumped east with precip but temps are similar to the old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like you and Kevin are on the same page. Good luck! you are very patient... at least it seems that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Not a shocker based on my own analysis a while ago: UPDATE AT 910 AM... THE 06Z GFS IS COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 00Z ECMWF 850-700 MB 1540 LINE IS A TAD COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF OUR CURRENT SNOW/RAIN LINE. AS A RESULT...AM UPPING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN HAMPDEN...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN WORCESTER... AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN MA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NH...AND HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT. NAM 2M TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THOSE AREAS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE EXPANSION OF ADVISORIES ABOUT ONE TIER EASTWARD. Nice.....CCB of reality finally got cranking over BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Don't get too excited. They said that before the previous update, which had smaller snow totals than this one. Nice.....CCB of reality finally got cranking over BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The anticipation for the GFS is killing me. Don't get too excited. They said that before the previous update, which had smaller snow totals than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Lol. Rgem did the same type thing. It bumped east with precip but temps are similar to the old run GFS boundary conditions aside...I've always thought the NAM suffered more because of it's NMM core physics than its initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS boundary conditions aside...I've always thought the NAM suffered more because of it's NMM core physics than its initialization. Yeah it's convective parameterization can lead to some wild and unstable solutions. Sometimes, however, it can be superior. Just depends on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Kevin, your area is tricky. Maybe the GFS goes se again, but there's a weird feeling with this one. I certainly would feel better if it went se for that 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Kevin, your area is tricky. Maybe the GFS goes se again, but there's a weird feeling with this one. I certainly would feel better if it went se for that 6-8". Yeah I'd like to see the GFS and Euro tick SE and keep things wrapped up to start talking about 6" totals there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like the GFS ticked a bit colder esp. for NW areas like interior SE NY and Litchfield County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 you are very patient... at least it seems that way This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 New BOX map just posted. tad more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS went se for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS is all strung out. Storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Coldest GFS, yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS is all strung out. Storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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