CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 He also said I did indeed taint around hour 30 on the euro..but still came in with 10 inches. 5-9 is my call. Unlss the Euro changes drastically today. if it doesn't..That's my final call It will be important to see what the GFS does. It's been on the colder side of things. If it shoots warm thats a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lol what a disorganized mess on the NAM I see many people inching towards bridges this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think this is our little prestorm trend that will likely go back a bit warmer at 12/18/0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lol what a disorganized mess on the NAM I see many people inching towards bridges this morning I'm not too worried about the NAM to be honest. It is the NAM afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm not too worried about the NAM to be honest. It is the NAM afterall. I've placed it safely in the back of my mind. Heavy weight on the Euro IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 12z NAM is colder of BOS... It also has large QPF numbers for that location. What is actually going on here is that it is narrowed the impact region. Where it doesn't fall hard there will be p-type issue. But places like BED in Mass to ORH and 20 miles or so W of that axis look to get dumped on with this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think models continue to trend a little colder and east, just a gut feeling, means nothing for me here, but may too some. BIG SNOWS, its April after all, turn those frowns upside down, any snow this time of year is a bonus!!! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like there were initialization errors with the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm not too worried about the NAM to be honest. It is the NAM afterall. The first thing that came to my mind is the song "Stand by your man" but substitute NAM and belt out..."CAUSE AFTER ALL...IT'S JUST THE NAM" in place of "CAUSE AFTER ALL...HE'S JUST A MAN.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It really doesn't look like surface temps are a big issue IMO..if you look at the 06z GFS BUFKIT you can see the surface temps even in areas that turn over to rain are quite cold...35 degrees in PVD...but the 860mb temp gets just over 5C. 06z GFS gives ORH 10-14" of snow with no snow in PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 12z NAM is colder of BOS... It also has large QPF numbers for that location. What is actually going on here is that it is narrowed the impact region. Where it doesn't fall hard there will be p-type issue. But places like BED in Mass to ORH and 20 miles or so W of that axis look to get dumped on with this solution. Looks like you are also a fan of FOUS. I use it immediately to get the big picture of the output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like there were initialization errors with the 12z NAM there were...southern shortwave not deep enough in Missouri and IL. Did NCEP comment on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Here's Albany's latest map: Basically cut totals in half for Litchfield County. Ryan may have to bring the truck to a very desolate place to see double digit totals, if it's possible at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Agreed. Wonder why HPC doesn't think those initialization errors could be throwing the NAM off. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1050 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011 ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITS SOLUTION. ...CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1... THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE...AND LESS INTENSE WITH THE ULTIMATE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE 00Z/31 ECMWF TO PHASE THE ENERGY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE INITIAL WAVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH DELAYS THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE. Looks like there were initialization errors with the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 hey now. light snows breaking out across nnj on radar, backed up by obs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm not too worried about the NAM to be honest. It is the NAM afterall. But that said it, the GFS, and you could even argue the EC has been indicating the CCB from Like NNJ up thru the Catskills towards the S'rn greens/N'rn Berkshires. IMO none of the models have wavered on this. (BTW - I'm agreeing with your forecast). The other issue is that everybody is saying NAM is east. What the nam is showing is a TP redevelopment thus it looks like its further east when IMO it isn't. You have the occlusion over LI/SE NE warm air aloft wrapping in. The cold air is back to the West and North of the Ct river Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 there were...southern shortwave not deep enough in Missouri and IL. Did NCEP comment on it? Yeah, but they said it did not appear to be consequential. I understand how they test that, but IMO it's still a load of BS. If the s/w was under represented there would of course be ramification into the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 hey now. light snows breaking out across nnj on radar, backed up by obs! Doesnt get much more exciting that this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Wow our in-house model has really cut back since last night. Horrible. 6-10" in the Berks and north of ORH. Less than an inch BOS. Nothing CEF/BDL/HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Wow our in-house model has really cut back since last night. Horrible. 6-10" in the Berks and north of ORH. Less than an inch BOS. Nothing CEF/BDL/HFD. Is it a WRF initialized on the 12z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 ..UPDATE AT 910 AM... THE 06Z GFS IS COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 00Z ECMWF 850-700 MB 1540 LINE IS A TAD COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF OUR CURRENT SNOW/RAIN LINE. AS A RESULT...AM UPPING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN HAMPDEN...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE...AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN MA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NH...AND HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT. NAM 2M TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THOSE AREAS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE EXPANSION OF ADVISORIES ABOUT ONE TIER EASTWARD. from boston at 9 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It will be important to see what the GFS does. It's been on the colder side of things. If it shoots warm thats a problem. Ryan, you've done a great job analyzing this system. A lot of people...even down to the coast...even here are/have been expecting snow. In order to get good snow this time of year the moon and the stars have to align perfectly and it just aint happening. Nobody should be surprised. The final third of this season beyond February 2nd has been terrible and not even the weather equivalent of Karl Rove can spin this any other way. When's it supposed to warm up?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 But that said it, the GFS, and you could even argue the EC has been indicating the CCB from Like NNJ up thru the Catskills towards the S'rn greens/N'rn Berkshires. IMO none of the models have wavered on this. (BTW - I'm agreeing with your forecast). The other issue is that everybody is saying NAM is east. What the nam is showing is a TP redevelopment thus it looks like its further east when IMO it isn't. You have the occlusion over LI/SE NE warm air aloft wrapping in. The cold air is back to the West and North of the Ct river Valley. Yup. The Euro especially delivered most of its snow in the CCB that cranked during the day tomorrow. I think it's probably totally overdone with that. And yes about the NAM. It's strung out and is a mess aloft which winds up sucking in all sorts of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ryan, you've done a great job analyzing this system. A lot of people...even down to the coast...even here are/have been expecting snow. In order to get good snow this time of year the moon and the stars have to align perfectly and it just aint happening. Nobody should be surprised. The final third of this season beyond February 2nd has been terrible and not even the weather equivalent of Karl Rove can spin this any other way. When's it supposed to warm up?? Yeah no snow at the coast. Socks is running around in his socks telling people in the Bronx they're getting big snow but most people on the shore should know by now they're getting nothing. Winter ended 2/2 oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 12 rgem 24 hr 987 couple miles south of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 But that said it, the GFS, and you could even argue the EC has been indicating the CCB from Like NNJ up thru the Catskills towards the S'rn greens/N'rn Berkshires. IMO none of the models have wavered on this. (BTW - I'm agreeing with your forecast). The other issue is that everybody is saying NAM is east. What the nam is showing is a TP redevelopment thus it looks like its further east when IMO it isn't. You have the occlusion over LI/SE NE warm air aloft wrapping in. The cold air is back to the West and North of the Ct river Valley. tend to agree there. been pretty consistent in that general theme. issues further east have been more regarding subtle shifts in thermal profiles. problem for areas that end up outside the good comma head snows could be lackluster ratios/snow growth given a awfully marginal 10K feet or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 FWIW... RGEM has the same initialization error as the NAM. there were...southern shortwave not deep enough in Missouri and IL. Did NCEP comment on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Wow our in-house model has really cut back since last night. Horrible. 6-10" in the Berks and north of ORH. Less than an inch BOS. Nothing CEF/BDL/HFD. Similar on ours too. has some heavy rain BDL/HFD south and east alongthe Pike to BOS. Even ORH looks to at least mix with rain if not go over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 New BOX map just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Still not a fan. New BOX map just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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