OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 At 21 hrs. 1000-850 ct's are just wavering south of MA/nh/vt border. That'd be a ton of rain in all of ct ri and most of MA or am I missing it? lead shortwave still floods eastern areas with warmth even though the surface low ticked significantly east. It doesn't wrap up fast enough. The southern shortwave is stronger than the NAM initialized with, the sub-540dm line using UA and the SPC analysis is further south into Missouri and Illinois that the NAM doesn't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The box map gives me an inch ...lol Yeah, it doesn't match their zone or point and clicks at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Should anyone even be using the NAM for a forecast after the crap it's had with this sytem? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 By 24 it cools in ct but look at precip it's mostly fallen in the warmth. Dryslot per the nam. Ugly ugly rub for 95 through 24h stays pretty cold in western ct the entire run, but serious lack of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lead shortwave still floods eastern areas with warmth even though the surface low ticked significantly east. It doesn't wrap up fast enough. The southern shortwave is stronger than the NAM initialized with, the sub-540dm line using UA and the SPC analysis is further south into Missouri and Illinois that the NAM doesn't have. And thus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 NAM is doing a great job. sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lead shortwave still floods eastern areas with warmth even though the surface low ticked significantly east. It doesn't wrap up fast enough. The southern shortwave is stronger than the NAM initialized with, the sub-540dm line using UA and the SPC analysis is further south into Missouri and Illinois that the NAM doesn't have. Yeah there is a disconnect with the surface low and the mid level lows. I'm not sure if it's feedback or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 And thus? it should wrap up sooner than the NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is BOX's map for real? I'm a little perplexed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 it should wrap up sooner than the NAM does. I imagine initilaization issues have greater impact with short-term forecasts than longer ones. Less time for things to "adjust" to the realities and smooth to what might still be a consisten mid/long-term forecast. Or not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 RH drops off significantly after 6z according to the e-wall maps. ml warming will have it's way with parts of SNE if the NAM has any merit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I don't know... A lot of the attitudes from the collective, as well as AFD tones about the areas hearken to being bowled over by the 57F high in blazing sun yesterday. It was hard to get heads around 1997, too, much for the same duping of psychologies that 2 days in the low 60s did. This is no 1997, BUT, it can snow, and heavily, after a warm day in April given sufficient dynamics. Models are not as warm as KTANs accumulation product or bold statements about only snowing at 700ft. That's almost leaning toward absurd to me. I was just looking at the 00z GGEM, a model with a native warm bias, and it was quite cold... showing very heavy QPF on going with a heavily collapsed 850mb 0c isotherm, seawards. The 00z Euro, though I can only see the 12 hourly increments was not a warm solution - synoptically arguing for a similar dynamicall induce cold punch through partial thickness type evolution. The 06z NAM for BOS on the FRH has +2C, 0C, and +1C at the warmest interval - those are from bottom up, the 980mb, 900mb, and 800mb levels. That highest +1C is synoptically driven warm layer; unless there is a warm tongue above, dynamics would overcome that. The +2C in the 980mb level (about 800-1000 feet up give or take), is likely a residue of having 06 wind trajectory (ENE) at nearly 30 knots from off 40F SSTs. In December 1997, the ETA (of the time) had +3, +1, and 0C at those same levels for the 23rd of the month, and we all know what happened on the 23rd! I am probably the only person on this board that would rather it not snow, but objectively, I don't see a lot of logical support for going warm with this thing. Season is no excuse. Too many examples in the annuls of overcoming that limitation, and given that some of the typically warmer models are drilling cool signals, strikes me as trying to outwit the physics of the models in going warm. The interpretation catch is this: At this time of year, you could get 8" of snow, clear by 11am, and having a balmy 46F late afternoon all but obolish it. Welcome to Denver folks. But, that doesn't mean the storm failed to produce. I suppose sense we are inside 30 hours with this thing, if the NAM comes in say +4, +2, +1 or there about over BOS, I'd have a little more sympathy for the warm reasoning. But if it holds serve on the 06z profile over BOS... I suggest ORH-CEF type line and points N ought to be prepared for a lot of blue snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is BOX's map for real? I'm a little perplexed. That map has me in the 2" range but my point and click and zone has 5"- 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Somebody over at GYX is following our thread here, Its not Eck either... 000 FXUS61 KGYX 310832 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 432 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLC COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE NE...CROSSING THRU THE GULF OF MAINE FRI AFTN. IT WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SUN AND MON...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSES OVER NEW ENG TUE AND WED. && .NEAR AND SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY AS CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE MID ATLC COASTLINE. MODELS ARE FINALLY STABILIZING THEIR TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AFTER GYRATING WILDY FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THERE MAY BE VERY LIGHT PCPN OVER SOUTHERN NH AND XTRM SWRN ME WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT...DYNAMIC COOLING AND EVAPORATION COOLING WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT...SO THE PTYPE MAY GO BACK AND FORTH BTWN -RA AND -SN DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER WRN NH...AS VRY DRY AIR RMNS IN PLACE E OF THIS REGION. VERY STRONG 300 MB JET WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE COUPLED JET AS WELL...WHICH WILL AID IN THIS STRENGTHENING AS A 130 KT JET IS CURRENTLY EXITING OFF THE NEW ENG COASTLINE...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL JET...EQUALLY AS STRONG...DIVES OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. THE NAM...WHICH WAS THE FURTHEST E WITH THIS SYSTEM YDA...IS NOW THE FURTHEST WEST...TRACKING THE SFC LOW OVER THE CAPE COD CANAL. WILL SUBSCRIBE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO TRACK AS THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...BUT AS IS THE CASE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BOUNDRY LAYER TEMPS ARE IN QUESTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN PTNS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BLO MOS GUIDNC HOWEVER...AIDED BY THE CLEAR SKIES LAST NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY INSOLATING CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT ALL COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR THE COASTALINE. WILL HIT THE RAPID CHANGES IN SNOWFALL ACCUMS AS ONE MOVES FROM THE COAST TO THE INTERIOR. ALSO...ELEVATION LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN SNOWFALL TOTALS...WHICH WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS. USED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS OF 8-9 TO 1 ALONG THE COAST...WHERE THE GROUND IS THE WARMEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST SNOW GROWTH. THE PCPN WILL BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN UPCOMING STATEMENTS/WARNINGS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS LATE SEASON...APRIL FOOL`S TULIP TROUNCING SYSTEM TO CONSIDER A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO. :lmao: are you sure you didnt add that in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 both the srefs and nam have trended east and drier, nam much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ouch the NAM is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ouch the NAM is awful Well, it certainly was east yesterday, too....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That BOX map is creating huge backups on the Tobin and a run on toasters at Target/Walmart Home Depot is reporting a shortage of rope and chairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ouch the NAM is awful yeah it doesn't exactly scream maple mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I only can see the 850 temps on NCEP, but 850-700 critical thicknesses cooled off a bit. Something went on with the 09z SREFs because there is a spread in temps aloft. Must be some runs that trended one way or another, so we might have to be careful if that skewed the mean. Most of it seems to be attributed to a late-blooming low pressure system. There are a lot of members that really hammer NH and ME... definitely going to be a close call the further south and east you go if this develops a deformation band or CCB quick enough. That always seems to happen in these storms... they deepen later than models think they will and thus the entire evolution gets pushed north and east. In this case, a weaker low passing SNE is better because it doesn't pump the warm air as deep into the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lack of heavy precip, tough to get any dynamical cooling with that nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Awaiting the requisite posts from BIrv and Messenger saying: "I told you so! I told you so!" and they did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 yeah it doesn't exactly scream maple mauler. drip drip drip for ORH, HFD, and every inbetween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 yeah it doesn't exactly scream maple mauler. As one with a qpf fetish, it's cut mine in half...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 yeah it doesn't exactly scream maple mauler. I think it's garbage, to be perfectly honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ouch the NAM is awful No snow at BDL tomorrow AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Nam clown maps are going to be funky, book it. mt zucker jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 No snow at BDL tomorrow AM? Very little... you should be in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I feel bad for southern NE, but the NAM is amazing for Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 :lmao: are you sure you didnt add that in lol Nope, it's there http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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