CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm still worried about a sneaky warm layer above that. The NAM showed big problems above 850mb around here even up to Springfield. I only can see the 850 temps on NCEP, but 850-700 critical thicknesses cooled off a bit. Something went on with the 09z SREFs because there is a spread in temps aloft. Must be some runs that trended one way or another, so we might have to be careful if that skewed the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like lots of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 that backside energy dumping into the trough over Nebraska is helping this slight trend east IMO...without that the low probably be cut through SNE. I actually thought something similar, as well. That might help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Final call bdr 1 dxr 4 Litchfield hills 6-12 bdl 6 hfd 4 toll 9 orh 11 pete 16 kgay 8 bos 4 dom 10 greens 8-14 tan 1 mt moosup 4 pvd 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It got worse. I mean the SREF members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It got worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Wow 6z NAM trended much warmer for places like NW CT. Ouch. Basically all rain for me and Kevin. GFS looks better though. Go figure. Dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I only can see the 850 temps on NCEP, but 850-700 critical thicknesses cooled off a bit. Something went on with the 09z SREFs because there is a spread in temps aloft. Must be some runs that trended one way or another, so we might have to be careful if that skewed the mean. Yeah that will be key to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 the 12z nam is going east IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Didn't BOX say they were going to INCREASE totals? I'm reposting this to further express my amazement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 that backside energy dumping into the trough over Nebraska is helping this slight trend east IMO...without that the low probably be cut through SNE. 100% agree. The paper jconsor posted and others like it are a goldmine. Really hammers home we need to always give thought to data density not just in the main s/w involved in cyclogenesis but also the follow up kicker. This year it's the kickers giving models fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well some of the SREF members on the PSU site are just south of JFK, while others have almost a secondary low down by the convection well south of SNE. Lots of spread there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 the 12z nam is going east IMO. Kicker is a moose awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well some of the SREF members on the PSU site are just south of JFK, while others have almost a secondary low down by the convection well south of SNE. Lots of spread there. An even split? Split the difference then:) Marching of temps continues: 36.0/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Versus 0z nam squashed western side of precip way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Didn't BOX say they were going to INCREASE totals? I'm reposting this to further express my amazement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The box map gives me an inch ...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 nam east and much colder, night and day down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 An even split? Split the difference then:) Marching of temps continues: 36.0/25 Not that I expect it, but I made a comment last night any potential convection playing games. Might be something to watch as some of the SREF members target a low well south of SNE. You don't want convection too robust, but that s/w looks powerful enough to really develop a good train of moisture off the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 nam east and much colder, night and day down here. At 21 hrs. 1000-850 ct's are just wavering south of MA/nh/vt border. That'd be a ton of rain in all of ct ri and most of MA or am I missing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 At 21 hrs. 1000-850 ct's are just wavering south of MA/nh/vt border. That'd be a ton of rain in all of ct ri and most of MA or am I missing it? that was through 18, have not seen 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 its way east for sure, and colder here, cant speak for the rest of new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 that was through 18, have not seen 21 By 24 it cools in ct but look at precip it's mostly fallen in the warmth. Dryslot per the nam. Ugly ugly rub for 95 through 24h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Sure looks east to me....... 36.2/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Congrats, Ray...... scroogie on the qpf out here through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 NAM is doing a great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is BOX really giving me .7"? Just reviewed the NAM (sorry I'm late to the game) and it's looking like an all snow event for me.... or am I missing something in the thermal profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Didn't BOX say they were going to INCREASE totals? I'm reposting this to further express my amazement. They increased here Might as well be a topo map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The box map gives me an inch ...lol that's what she said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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