CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks Snowman. This is stressful forecast to say the least. What did you lock in? Kevin is saying 5-9 for Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Oops--wrong map. With these temps at only 9:00a.m., and a rainy start, after it does change to snow a fair amount may be melting on contact wasting some of the wintry qpf. Just my uneducated observationn/thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Here's my map from last night. Before I get flamed by Kevin is that at his elevation 3-5" would not surprise me there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 From BOX lolol To be honest I thought their numbers were reasomnable here. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ...UPDATE AT 910 AM... THE 06Z GFS IS COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 00Z ECMWF 850-700 MB 1540 LINE IS A TAD COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF OUR CURRENT SNOW/RAIN LINE. AS A RESULT...AM UPPING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN HAMPDEN...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE...AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN MA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NH...AND HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT. NAM 2M TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THOSE AREAS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE EXPANSION OF ADVISORIES ABOUT ONE TIER EASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Somebody over at GYX is following our thread here, Its not Eck either... That's exactly what I said this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Here's my map from last night. Before I get flamed by Kevin is that at his elevation 3-5" would not surprise me there. I think he'll flame you for a 3-5 call for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lol... RUC is awful. You dont want this... look at how far north that 0C H85 line is. And is that even the right low pressure system it is keying on? There is the Snap reference again..."I will attack and you don't want that". I like the RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ummmmm----why is the WSW up until 2:00a.m. Saturday? 35.3/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 There is the Snap reference again..."I will attack and you don't want that". I like the RUC he was talking to Jerry and yes, the RUC is warm for the coastal plain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I see Kevin is riding the snowiest model of the overnight runs. I technically have him in my 1-3 zone but with his elevation he could do 3-5 Explain reasons why not to go with the euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 . And with 3 feet still on the ground at 1,500ft and 8-9 feet over 3,000ft, its going to take a while for this to melt. We'll be goin' till July. Good luck to the thrushes though. Certainly wouldn't wish them any harm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 From BOX lolol To be honest I thought their numbers were reasomnable here. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ...UPDATE AT 910 AM... THE 06Z GFS IS COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 00Z ECMWF 850-700 MB 1540 LINE IS A TAD COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF OUR CURRENT SNOW/RAIN LINE. AS A RESULT...AM UPPING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN HAMPDEN...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE...AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN MA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NH...AND HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT. NAM 2M TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THOSE AREAS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE EXPANSION OF ADVISORIES ABOUT ONE TIER EASTWARD. AWT..I am sure they were reading this thread this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Explain reasons why not to go with the euro?? Well even the Euro brings you rain and it keeps the best forcing in Litchfield County where the CCB gets going. To be honest I'm not going to rely on getting wrap-around from the Euro after flipping to rain because that so rarely happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 AWT..I am sure they were reading this thread this AM Their snow map looked good the advisories/warning just didn't seem to jive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Be honest with yourself. Look at the snow that fell in Boston, providence and Hartford in march. From a historical perspective it's right near the top of all time winters. Lol The sad truth is, this is where numbers "lie.". If Boston pulls x inches tonight it will look good in the record books 30 years from now for those that didn't live through it. Truth is winter was mostly a dud after 2/15 until right now. I take it from the comments we are still seeing some movements in the models. Probably not done and if the papers are right it's this run at 12z that should see the most dramatic slam towards the end game. We should really all end the sniping and trolling. Just my take on it, it goes to far and it should go in the ragtime thread. Anyone that doesn't follow gets one warning and then a day off. Friends don't put friends in the position if having to police their comments. Expectations http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhKaMsEMwOI Reality (and the stages of denial to go along with it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 looking at the WV...i'm pretty sure the 06z GFS initialized better than the 06z NAM. You can see the 2 shortwaves digging into the backside of the trough...one in ND..and one in Nebraska. If anything, the southern shortwave might be a bit stronger than the 06z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Their snow map looked good the advisories/warning just didn't seem to jive. I don't like the map at all. I guess they expect western areas to get screwed on qpf? 35.5/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Here's my map from last night. Before I get flamed by Kevin is that at his elevation 3-5" would not surprise me there. Pretty much what i was thinking for NW CT..However new meso model 06z run has more sleet mixing in across NW CT to S'rn Berkshires (just about to the MASS Pike). We'll see. Also this new run has some very good bands forecast across most of Interior ENY, WNE (N'rn Berkshires-North to SVT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Pretty much what i was thinking for NW CT..However new meso model 06z run has more sleet mixing in across NW CT to S'rn Berkshires (just about to the MASS Pike). We'll see. Also this new run has some very good bands forecast across most of Interior ENY, WNE (N'rn Berkshires-North to SVT). Yeah 6z NAM is warm. So we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well even the Euro brings you rain and it keeps the best forcing in Litchfield County where the CCB gets going. To be honest I'm not going to rely on getting wrap-around from the Euro after flipping to rain because that so rarely happens. Well the Euro gives my area 10 inches..and typically is too warm ..so I'll ride that..but go 5-9..so even a bit under the Euro amts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Haha, that seemed like the way to go even early this morning before the 6z GFS. From BOX lolol To be honest I thought their numbers were reasomnable here. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ...UPDATE AT 910 AM... THE 06Z GFS IS COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 00Z ECMWF 850-700 MB 1540 LINE IS A TAD COLDER THAN THE 00Z GFS. THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF OUR CURRENT SNOW/RAIN LINE. AS A RESULT...AM UPPING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR EASTERN HAMPDEN...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE...AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN MA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NH...AND HARTFORD AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT. NAM 2M TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THOSE AREAS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS EVENING...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT. THIS WILL NECESSITATE THE EXPANSION OF ADVISORIES ABOUT ONE TIER EASTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah 6z NAM is warm. So we'll see. Funny thing is we initialize with GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 09z SREFs went east. Still a spread at 850 temps over eastern areas, but the 0C line at 850 now goes from BOS to TOL/HFD as opposed to LWM- northwest CT om the 03z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well the Euro gives my area 10 inches..and typically is too warm ..so I'll ride that..but go 5-9..so even a bit under the Euro amts. You could be right I'm thinking that we'll have mid level issues and the Euro got the comma head snows cranking west of you (trhey really pounded Litchfield co) so I'm not sold the Euro is that good for you in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 09z SREFs went east. Still a spread at 850 temps over eastern areas, but the 0C line at 850 now goes from BOS to TOL/HFD as opposed to LWM- northwest CT om the 03z runs. they're a lot better I think...go close to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 09z SREFs went east. Still a spread at 850 temps over eastern areas, but the 0C line at 850 now goes from BOS to TOL/HFD as opposed to LWM- northwest CT om the 03z runs. Love how everything is trnding colder and east as go time approaches. We discussed this exact thing happening yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 09z SREFs went east. Still a spread at 850 temps over eastern areas, but the 0C line at 850 now goes from BOS to TOL/HFD as opposed to LWM- northwest CT om the 03z runs. I'm still worried about a sneaky warm layer above that. The NAM showed big problems above 850mb around here even up to Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 they're a lot better I think...go close to the benchmark. Yeah it will be interesting to see how they look on the PSU site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 that backside energy dumping into the trough over Nebraska is helping this slight trend east IMO...without that the low probably be cut through SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It got worse. Yeah it will be interesting to see how they look on the PSU site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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