powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 06z GFS actually looks more like the Euro now. I'm not sure what model supports no headlines for S ORH county...none that I can see. They probably think it will trend warmer. Nzucker gets more snow than ORH per current NWS forecasts... in the zones, point 'n clicks, and headline statements.. lol. There's no way that happens, absolutely no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This is a 6" event here....big deal. NWS has 3-5 by point and click. I know exaggerating can be fun when you are trolling, but it's more effective when you are honest with everyone. I honestly feel you will receive more than 6" out of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 southern shortwave is entering Alabama now...looks quite impressive on water vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Nzucker gets more snow than ORH per current NWS forecasts... in the zones, point 'n clicks, and headline statements.. lol. There's no way that happens, absolutely no way. Well he did say that the warm push was much more impressive in MA than his BY...6-10 on mt zucker....1-2 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well he did say that the warm push was much more impressive in MA than his BY...6-10 on mt zucker....1-2 for me. Mt Zucker....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I see Kevin is riding the snowiest model of the overnight runs. I technically have him in my 1-3 zone but with his elevation he could do 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Mt Zucker....lol. Those 300 foot hills can be mighty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I honestly feel you will receive more than 6" out of this event. You could be right. Just looking at the setup gives me concerns though, has for days. It's more or less a 6hr heavy slug of snow...outside of that is going to have trouble accumulating, even if there is .4" over the other 8 hours around that, it will be wasted (esp under 1000') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Kevin, what's your t/td?? When i left it was 35.4/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Wow 6z NAM trended much warmer for places like NW CT. Ouch. Basically all rain for me and Kevin. GFS looks better though. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah, it's hard to get a lot of snow here in the heart of winter, let alone April, so I don't normally have a problem with conservative estimates for MBY. But my point and click is for "less than an inch". Even if we go to 33 or something for a bit, BOX is out on a big limb saying advy criteria won't even verify. Even though I've been telling people all week that if anything materialized the hilltowns would cash, that's always the case around here, and I'm feeling pretty good when even CT rain is mentioning my locale as staying all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This is a 6" event here....big deal. NWS has 3-5 by point and click. I know exaggerating can be fun when you are trolling, but it's more effective when you are honest with everyone. Be honest with yourself. Look at the snow that fell in Boston, providence and Hartford in march. From a historical perspective it's right near the top of all time winters. Lol The sad truth is, this is where numbers "lie.". If Boston pulls x inches tonight it will look good in the record books 30 years from now for those that didn't live through it. Truth is winter was mostly a dud after 2/15 until right now. I take it from the comments we are still seeing some movements in the models. Probably not done and if the papers are right it's this run at 12z that should see the most dramatic slam towards the end game. We should really all end the sniping and trolling. Just my take on it, it goes to far and it should go in the ragtime thread. Anyone that doesn't follow gets one warning and then a day off. Friends don't put friends in the position if having to police their comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What's the best take on start time of precip regardless of type? 35.2/21 7-10 pm for you...light 'til about midnight or so then the fit hits the shan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The way this is going in here, Theres going to be another run on toasters at 12z it looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Perhaps the rationale is in this statement from the AFD: EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS. THIS WILL BE KEY TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...AS THE LOWER LEVELS WILL NEED TO COOL DOWN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW CAN FALL.-- End Changed Discussion -- 35.3/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I would be surprise if all of inland ct and mass woke up friday morning with heavy snow and national weather service had to put warnings out fast . im still going for over 6 inches for inland ct . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Man the RUC is really one of the more hilarious models... by 4pm today the leading edge of the precipitation is already into southern/central NH and VT. Dryslots SNE by 10pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Glad to still have a snowpack as the snow will accumulate instantly. Looks and feels like snow. Indeed. Those places still with snow cover will see the fresh snow pile up a little better, I would think. Cold white surface as opposed to a warmish brown surface and all that. Spring snows are funny like that--the rich get even richer. I mentioned this sort of thing in the NNE thread. We only got to 39F yesterday likely due to still having solid cover (23"), reflecting the sun's rays back out, thus keeping the snow around, which helps keep it cooler, which helps keep the pack, which keeps it cooler, blah-blah. I tell ya, if we get a foot of snow out here in the hill-country, there'll be ski touring to be had for some time to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I see Kevin is riding the snowiest model of the overnight runs. I technically have him in my 1-3 zone but with his elevation he could do 3-5 He is defintely in a trickier zone. High bust potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Kind of cool to see local area soundings at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 He is defintely in a trickier zone. High bust potential there. Yeah with his elevation I'd say 3-5 is a good bet. Almost every model gives him at least some rain so I think that's probably the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 7-10 pm for you...light 'til about midnight or so then the fit hits the shan. Thanks! 35.3/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Darn... my workplace is only getting 2-4" or so as per point and click, while I'm in the 5-10" range. The drive to work Friday will really really suck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's really a tough forecast ever for BDL. GFS is mainly snow but the NAM is a torch around 800mb. Awfully borderline so I think conservative is the way to go. I like my numbers from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 12z area soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah with his elevation I'd say 3-5 is a good bet. Almost every model gives him at least some rain so I think that's probably the way to go. I feel 'good' about 3-6" for me. Although not likely I still believe I could wake up to find an 1" of slush or find the woodshed collapsed from 9" of mashed potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oswego Wx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks Snowman. This is stressful forecast to say the least. Seems fair. Thought Channel 30's forecast this morning was good. Problem with this situation is going to be verification. Temps at the surface will be marginal across CT, so once the precipitation lets up just a little, melting will resume and snow may change to rain accelerating snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I tell ya, if we get a foot of snow out here in the hill-country, there'll be ski touring to be had for some time to come. Ain't that the truth. Snowpack at the fabled Mansfield stake looks to go over 100" provided 6" falls at 3,700ft. The 12 foot stake will only have the top 3 feet showing! Of course, nothing like 2000-2001 where an attachment was necessarily because 12 feet wasn't enough. I'll never forget watching the evening news on WCAX sometime in March 2001 and watch them attach another yard stick to the top of the stake. Our VP of Mtn Ops said we need more snow "like we need a hole in the head" right now... they've got a ton of construction projects to do and they need to be up working on the summit later this month to complete certain tasks before the Bicknell Thrush birds return to the mountain for mating. The birds have a reservation with us starting in early May, so this stuff needs to melt quickly as soon as the mtn closes, haha. And with 3 feet still on the ground at 1,500ft and 8-9 feet over 3,000ft, its going to take a while for this to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I feel 'good' about 3-6" for me. Although not likely I still believe I could wake up to find an 1" of slush or find the woodshed collapsed from 9" of mashed potatoes. I have you right on the border from 1-3 and 3-6. I think the elevations just west of you have abetter shot of 3-6. I posted a map last night in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 With these temps at only 9:00a.m., and a rainy start, after it does change to snow a fair amount may be melting on contact wasting some of the wintry qpf. Just my uneducated observationn/thinking. That was yesterday I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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