Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 06z GFS went se again. A little cooler at 850 as well, esp for Kev and Ray. You gotta love and go with the Euro. What are you thinking here? Would you go 5-9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 WTNH's take on things: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Why does HFD have an advisory and ORH nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Why does HFD have an advisory and ORH nothing? We've been asking/wondering that all morning lol.. Noone knows what is going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Boy, this is going to be all nighter just to keep up with the probable snow to rain back to snow crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 WTNH's take on things: Seems fair. Thought Channel 30's forecast this morning was good. Problem with this situation is going to be verification. Temps at the surface will be marginal across CT, so once the precipitation lets up just a little, melting will resume and snow may change to rain accelerating snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Scott, I want a forecast for here, if possible lol. I can't see the Euro detailed data. Would we changeover? I think eventually. The elevation would hurt you, even if mostly snow I think. I probably would have though maybe 2-4 or 3-6 for your area as of now..best guess. It's tough for lower interior spots. I mean it could absolutely rip and you pile fast at 32F or it could struggle to get to 33F and give you 6:1 ratios. Of course if the lift sucks or boundary layer is not that cold, then you'll be lucky for a couple of sloppy inches, but this is one of those days that deserves a wider range for snowfall. 2-6"..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Why does HFD have an advisory and ORH nothing? IDK why they didn't give a warning for Litchfield county over 1k. IDK why Blizz doesn't even have a HWO. lol. IDK why areas down near Westchester County have a WSW. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 There's going to be alot of surprised people tomorrow morning..if things aren't upgraded later today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Seems fair. Thought Channel 30's forecast this morning was good. Problem with this situation is going to be verification. Temps at the surface will be marginal across CT, so once the precipitation lets up just a little, melting will resume and snow may change to rain accelerating snow melt. They're playing pretty conservative IMO. We'll have to see what the 12z runs say but often times I think they don't take into account the ECMWF for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Somebody over at GYX is following our thread here, Its not Eck either... 000 FXUS61 KGYX 310832 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 432 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLC COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE NE...CROSSING THRU THE GULF OF MAINE FRI AFTN. IT WILL EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SUN AND MON...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSES OVER NEW ENG TUE AND WED. && .NEAR AND SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY AS CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE MID ATLC COASTLINE. MODELS ARE FINALLY STABILIZING THEIR TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AFTER GYRATING WILDY FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THERE MAY BE VERY LIGHT PCPN OVER SOUTHERN NH AND XTRM SWRN ME WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT...DYNAMIC COOLING AND EVAPORATION COOLING WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT...SO THE PTYPE MAY GO BACK AND FORTH BTWN -RA AND -SN DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER WRN NH...AS VRY DRY AIR RMNS IN PLACE E OF THIS REGION. VERY STRONG 300 MB JET WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE COUPLED JET AS WELL...WHICH WILL AID IN THIS STRENGTHENING AS A 130 KT JET IS CURRENTLY EXITING OFF THE NEW ENG COASTLINE...WHILE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL JET...EQUALLY AS STRONG...DIVES OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. THE NAM...WHICH WAS THE FURTHEST E WITH THIS SYSTEM YDA...IS NOW THE FURTHEST WEST...TRACKING THE SFC LOW OVER THE CAPE COD CANAL. WILL SUBSCRIBE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO TRACK AS THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...BUT AS IS THE CASE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BOUNDRY LAYER TEMPS ARE IN QUESTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN PTNS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BLO MOS GUIDNC HOWEVER...AIDED BY THE CLEAR SKIES LAST NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY INSOLATING CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT ALL COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR THE COASTALINE. WILL HIT THE RAPID CHANGES IN SNOWFALL ACCUMS AS ONE MOVES FROM THE COAST TO THE INTERIOR. ALSO...ELEVATION LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN SNOWFALL TOTALS...WHICH WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS. USED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS OF 8-9 TO 1 ALONG THE COAST...WHERE THE GROUND IS THE WARMEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST SNOW GROWTH. THE PCPN WILL BECOME HEAVY LATE TONIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN UPCOMING STATEMENTS/WARNINGS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS LATE SEASON...APRIL FOOL`S TULIP TROUNCING SYSTEM TO CONSIDER A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 IDK why they didn't give a warning for Litchfield county over 1k. IDK why Blizz doesn't even have a HWO. lol. IDK why areas down near Westchester County have a WSW. Yikes. It's simple. Those 1000 ft hills could get 500 ft of snow and they wouldn't issue anything because for as many high peaks as there are, there are many more lower elevations that would never reach criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 You gotta love and go with the Euro. What are you thinking here? Would you go 5-9? I might go with 4-7 because of uncertainty but I think it covers it. Always have the ability to adjust from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Somebody over at GYX is following our thread here, Its not Eck either... ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THIS LATE SEASON...APRIL FOOL`S TULIP TROUNCING SYSTEM TO CONSIDER A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO. That's funny! I forget the username, but somebody from GYX other than Ekster pops in here from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I might go with 4-7 because of uncertainty but I think it covers it. Always have the ability to adjust from there. Playing W CT as conservatively as the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I might go with 4-7 because of uncertainty but I think it covers it. Always have the ability to go up from there. Can you believe BOX? I mean what is going on? 4-7 or 5- 9 inches of snow in Tolland and Windham Cty into NW RI and up to ORH and nothing..no advisories..or anything..there will be some power outages etc..and nothing Just strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That's funny! I forget the username, but somebody from GYX other than Ekster pops in here from time to time. Yeah, I got a chuckle out of that, I see you locked in similar to my totals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Show me how much snow BOS, PVD, HFD have had since 2/16. LOL why on earth would you ask Pete what happens in the swamp? All he's had is big winter, big big winter all month! Is that how desperate you are to troll Kevin, No one answered bboughton's questions - I think we see snow flakes but it might be like the other day where it was pouring down at 34-35 and not really accumulating. We could possibly see a quick inch or two overnight that quickly melts once the sun comes up. We need the 850 mb low to travel a bit further south and east for the mid levels to be cold enough here. As it stands, the 850 low is basically tracking right over our head at least per 6z GFS with the 6z NAM a touch further west. As Ryan (CT Rain) has said numerous times in this thread, marginal conditions definitely won't cut it this time of year so we're most likely cooked unless things unexpected shift. At least that's my take for boston after looking at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah, I got a chuckle out of that, I see you locked in similar to my totals.... Yeah, all guidance I've seen shows over 1" QPF. Even poor ratios will deliver 10". Only NCP will spoil this party, and there shouldn't be a whole lot of that. Good early call, amigo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah, all guidance I've seen shows over 1" QPF. Even poor ratios will deliver 10". Only NCP will spoil this party, and there shouldn't be a whole lot of that. Good early call, amigo. Thanks, You may not have to worry, It looks like the models have trended SE some so it should stay cold right to the coast for the most part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Can you believe BOX? I mean what is going on? 4-7 or 5- 9 inches of snow in Tolland and Windham Cty into NW RI and up to ORH and nothing..no advisories..or anything..there will be some power outages etc..and nothing Just strange obviously they don't think so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's simple. Those 1000 ft hills could get 500 ft of snow and they wouldn't issue anything because for as many high peaks as there are, there are many more lower elevations that would never reach criteria. For ENY and WNE its all snow AOA 1K feet snowtools/ptype tools from ALL varied models support this. Below 1K feet precip will start as mostly rain maybe some wet snow but most snowtools indicate all snow here too but not until after Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Can you believe BOX? I mean what is going on? 4-7 or 5- 9 inches of snow in Tolland and Windham Cty into NW RI and up to ORH and nothing..no advisories..or anything..there will be some power outages etc..and nothing Just strange Well we were a little bullish after the euro came out, but I don't like how the SREFs are really stingy from ORH south. Honestly, it's a tough forecast. You can't just ignore guidance that usually is decent this far out. Your area is defintely a tougher forecast. However, the 06z GFS looked better and so did the euro ensembles so go figure. Those models would have me feeling pretty good for ORH, even a little better for your area. I think us three were thinking somewhere near 10-11" for ORH last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LOL why on earth would you ask Pete what happens in the swamp? All he's had is big winter, big big winter all month! Is that how desperate you are to troll Kevin, No one answered bboughton's questions - I think we see snow flakes but it might be like the other day where it was pouring down at 34-35 and not really accumulating. We could possibly see a quick inch or two overnight that quickly melts once the sun comes up. We need the 850 mb low to travel a bit further south and east for the mid levels to be cold enough here. As it stands, it's basically tracking right over our head at least per 6z GFS with the 6z NAM a tough further west. As Ryan (CT Rain) has said numerous times in this thread, marginal conditions definitely won't cut it this time of year so we're most likely cooked unless things unexpected shift. At least that's my take for boston after looking at the models. Pete was trolling me; he knows that winter ended long ago for the coastal plain and I explicitly mentioned in February that the interior would continue oscilating between late winter and Spring conditions. If Pete had any integrity and merit he would bump my posts where he disagreed with me from February. You are right on the bottom part - 2-5" are possible in the inland CP but that just isn't a big event. It's a good event for April 1st, don't get me wrong, but it doesn't make up for the awful March. Reasonable expectations always win out. Of course we can hold out for 6-12" in Boston, which is not impossible I guess. Not looking good. My call: BOS 0-2" BED 2-4" ORH 5-10" LWM 3-6" MHT 4-8" EEN 6-12" HFD 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks, You may not have to worry, It looks like the models have trended SE some so it should stay cold right to the coast for the most part... It would be nice if it'd stay snow in PWM as, of course, I'll be here during a big chunk of the event. I'd rather see tulip trouncing snow falling rather than mundane 35F rain. I noticed Sarah bumped up her map a couple inches. Tsk, tsk ... not enough, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well we were a little bullish after the euro came out, but I don't like how the SREFs are really stingy from ORH south. Honestly, it's a tough forecast. You can't just ignore guidance that usually is decent this far out. Your area is defintely a tougher forecast. However, the 06z GFS looked better and so did the euro ensembles so go figure. Those models would have me feeling pretty good for ORH, even a little better for your area. I think us three were thinking somewhere near 10-11" for ORH last night. Yeah 8-12 for ORH seems good. and 4-8 or 5-9 for here. Hard to go against Euro, Euro ens and RGEM...and now 6z GFS moves SE SREF's are probably biased due to time of year and the algorithm they use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Need to have quick dynamic cooling and then we'll see. Euro could be a big snow dump even in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 For ENY and WNE its all snow AOA 1K feet snowtools/ptype tools from ALL varied models support this. Below 1K feet precip will start as mostly rain maybe some wet snow but most snowtools indicate all snow here too but not until after Midnight. so you think Torrington/Winsted/Litchfield areas around 1k and higher can pull out a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 We can dream here in Portland right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 SPC 4km WRF (which has performed well from time to time this winter) really hammers ORH into extremem nrn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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