weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well, I'm out....Big weenie....big, big weenie incoming. Will, txt me some weenie info....I'll ready for the big one. good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Did anything good come through there? I just remember that day perfectly. I went to my sisters that day, she lived liked a quarter mile from BDL at the time...a storm came close to there but missed...all the good stuff was in MA that day. I don't think we got hit good that day. I remember a bad storm north of us though IIRC. We got a pretty pedestrian strong thunderstorm IIRC. I think just north of me got a much better storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I don't think we got hit good that day. I remember a bad storm north of us though IIRC. We got a pretty pedestrian strong thunderstorm IIRC. I think just north of me got a much better storm though. That kind of blows...MA got hit pretty damn good that day. What's weird about that day too is it was more on the cloudy side, at least down here in CT. 7/3/97 may be the best severe wx outbreak to hit our region in recorded history I believe...I always wonder what would have happened had there been more in the way of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Anyways, no more AP type comments...for the morning crowd. I don't want to have to moderate a bunch of posts tomorrow AM...late night is a bit of a different animal. Lets focus back on the storm. SREFs came a slight tick NW at 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Seems like any idea of a precursor event has been ended...radar basically empty right now. Had some rain/snow mix earlier down here but just cloudy right now with a temp of 40.4F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I hope socks has figured out the extremely difficult forecast for the Bronx and coastal Westchester County. We're much colder at 850mb on the 0z UKMET than you guys, sorry. Problem is going to be if the CCB develops in time for those of us back here. But there will be a big surge of warmth into CT to watch out for. I'm definitely leaning towards chasing this storm but would be disappointed if I left and my house saw a good snowfall. But I just think the risk of getting nothing here is too high with the CCB being a bit later to develop and BL temperatures near 40F. It seems like the models yesterday that hit NYC and extreme SNE showed a similar track but exploded the low pressure more over the Mid-Atlantic, so that dynamic cooling was already underway. I'm a bit puzzled that models have trended so much warmer with a similar track of the Nor'easter, but it looks like the GFS wants to track the H5 low right over NYC which is a rainstorm for here. We'll see if we can tick this SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GYX goes warning and 8-15... BTV for the eastern zones seems to have gone 10-14... I went 9-18... I only get one forecast a day and wanted to cover the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 We're much colder at 850mb on the 0z UKMET than you guys, sorry. Problem is going to be if the CCB develops in time for those of us back here. But there will be a big surge of warmth into CT to watch out for. I'm definitely leaning towards chasing this storm but would be disappointed if I left and my house saw a good snowfall. But I just think the risk of getting nothing here is too high with the CCB being a bit later to develop and BL temperatures near 40F. It seems like the models yesterday that hit NYC and extreme SNE showed a similar track but exploded the low pressure more over the Mid-Atlantic, so that dynamic cooling was already underway. I'm a bit puzzled that models have trended so much warmer with a similar track of the Nor'easter, but it looks like the GFS wants to track the H5 low right over NYC which is a rainstorm for here. We'll see if we can tick this SE. There is almost 0% chance you get more snow than Ryan in HFD. When you cool, its over. HFD has a shot at an omega bomb, you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 There is almost 0% chance you get more snow than Ryan in HFD. When you cool, its over. HFD has a shot at an omega bomb, you don't. Oh I agree...I would definitely go for more in Hartford. I was thinking maybe 1-3" here if we're lucky and 3-6" in Hartford, esp BDL to the north. That wasn't the argument I was having with him. The main point is that there could be some locations in western CT, SE NY, and NNJ that do much better than their counterparts at the same latitude to the east. For example, I'd feel much more comfortable being in Putnam County NY for this storm than Meriden CT. There's definitely a sharp surge of warm air ahead of the low as it tracks NE towards the CT coastline, and that could cause problems. BTW, how much does the 0z ECM give as frozen for HPN or CDW? Do you think the models are underdoing the amount of CCB precip that affects our area? It seems like a 988mb low south of LI with 850s crashing below 0C should be giving us something to get excited about, yet everyone seems to think it's over for NYC metro. Is this just because the models aren't developing the mid-levels until this passes us? Or do BL temps remain too warm even with heavy precip and -1C 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 There is almost 0% chance you get more snow than Ryan in HFD. When you cool, its over. HFD has a shot at an omega bomb, you don't. So IO have hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 There is almost 0% chance you get more snow than Ryan in HFD. When you cool, its over. HFD has a shot at an omega bomb, you don't. This is wrong of course. Ignoring any number of bizarre occurrences, you can kind of see how it could happen just looking at the 700mb and 850mb charts and their progression on the latest NAM. And the elevation of HFD sure doesn't help things. I do think HFD (especially elevated northern areas) has a better shot at plowable snow but I don't think either location will do particularly well. But still, it's kind of dumb to say that HFD will DEFINITELY do better than any other location when HFD could easily get skunked. Heck, PHL and NYC could get a coating while the SE half of CT gets squat. I know you know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 6z NAM just pisses me off...just so close to getting a good deal of snow but just a tad too warm in the 800-850mb layer. This blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This is wrong of course. Ignoring any number of bizarre occurrences, you can kind of see how it could happen just looking at the 700mb and 850mb charts and their progression on the latest NAM. And the elevation of HFD sure doesn't help things. I do think HFD (especially elevated northern areas) has a better shot at plowable snow but I don't think either location will do particularly well. But still, it's kind of dumb to say that HFD will DEFINITELY do better than any other location when HFD could easily get skunked. Heck, PHL and NYC could get a coating while the SE half of CT gets squat. I know you know this. The 6z NAM actually proves my point well...Hartford mixes a lot but the CCB wrapping around to NYC keeps them colder. Looks as if the suburbs would see a wet snowfall tomorrow, maybe 1-3", and then perhaps something more significant, on the 6z NAM. I don't understand why people are making fun of my thoughts on this forum, I think it's incredibly valid to point out that the track of the surface and mid-level lows argues for someone in W CT/SE NY to do better than someone in central CT at the same latitude. It is sort of disgusting to get mocked for this, I always try to contribute valuable information and not be biased... of course Ryan can't deal with anyone criticizing his forecast. Here is 6z NAM, looks interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Here is H7 on the 6z NAM, strong signal for deformation snows over the Hudson Valley and perhaps NNJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 6z NAM actually proves my point well...Hartford mixes a lot but the CCB wrapping around to NYC keeps them colder. Looks as if the suburbs would see a wet snowfall tomorrow, maybe 1-3", and then perhaps something more significant, on the 6z NAM. I don't understand why people are making fun of my thoughts on this forum, I think it's incredibly valid to point out that the track of the surface and mid-level lows argues for someone in W CT/SE NY to do better than someone in central CT at the same latitude. It is sort of disgusting to get mocked for this, I always try to contribute valuable information and not be biased... of course Ryan can't deal with anyone criticizing his forecast. Here is 6z NAM, looks interesting: I think this is possible, if not likely. Just look at how NWS Albany handled Dutchess and Litchfield counties in their forecast. Litchfield and eastern Dutchess are hillier, and generally colder/snowier, but they have an advisory whereas western Dutchess has a warning. It might depend on whether the frontside or backside is the better snow producer. Best lift and most intense precip probably occurs with the frontside surge. But does this favor New England or further west, and do the 850s support snow at this point? Then when the mid-levels cool, how much lift is left on the backside? And finally, does the surface support accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think this is possible, if not likely. Just look at how NWS Albany handled Dutchess and Litchfield counties in their forecast. Litchfield and eastern Dutchess are hillier, and generally colder/snowier, but they have an advisory whereas western Dutchess has a warning. It might depend on whether the frontside or backside is the better snow producer. Best lift and most intense precip probably occurs with the frontside surge. But does this favor New England or further west, and do the 850s support snow at this point? Then when the mid-levels cool, how much lift is left on the backside? And finally, does the surface support accumulation. In my mind, I'd rather be behind the 700 low than in front of it, unless I'm guaranteed to stay all snow. The 6z NAM at 30 clearly shows why Western Dutchess needs that warning...all of the Hudson Valley is on the backside of the H7 and H85 low and thus set for deformation snows, even Westchester, whereas CT is ahead of those mid-level centers where warmth is still being advected north. By the way, it's not far off at 30 from being a snow bomb down here as well, as 850mb temperatures quickly crash with the CCB cranking after just barely ticking above 0C as the storm approaches. I think if the storm bombs a bit earlier and maybe 25-50 miles east, NYC metro can do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I must be reading the snow projection wrong on the NAM. How much does that say for Northwest CT? In my mind, I'd rather be behind the 700 low than in front of it, unless I'm guaranteed to stay all snow. The 6z NAM at 30 clearly shows why Western Dutchess needs that warning...all of the Hudson Valley is on the backside of the H7 and H85 low and thus set for deformation snows, even Westchester, whereas CT is ahead of those mid-level centers where warmth is still being advected north. By the way, it's not far off at 30 from being a snow bomb down here as well, as 850mb temperatures quickly crash with the CCB cranking after just barely ticking above 0C as the storm approaches. I think if the storm bombs a bit earlier and maybe 25-50 miles east, NYC metro can do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I must be reading the snow projection wrong on the NAM. How much does that say for Northwest CT? The extreme NW corner of CT at highest elevation is 1.75" QPF, almost all snow. Most places in NW CT probably see about 1" of their QPF as snow, so probably 8-10" snowfall, depending on altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is the NAM west of the Euro? The extreme NW corner of CT at highest elevation is 1.75" QPF, almost all snow. Most places in NW CT probably see about 1" of their QPF as snow, so probably 8-10" snowfall, depending on altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 06 nam is colder than the 0z run more snow in ct they should have kept the watch up for northern ct or a warning ecmf model was colder storm too last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 06 nam is colder than the 0z run more snow in ct they should have kept the watch up for northern ct or a warning No it isn't... Were still too war, between 800-850mb for snow...it would be close but it would nice to see it 3-4C colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is the NAM west of the Euro? I don't have access to intermediate frames of the ECM sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 ECMWF would be more snow than other models from last night runs . upton even said that if you go by that model they would have more snow by that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 AWT ... winter storm warnings up for all of Maine and NH except for the immediate coast where advisories are posted. My final call for mby is 10-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Hard to believe BOX has nothing issued here. Hopefully when the next shift shift comes on they realize the error. Someone who didn't follow the wx wold think Northern CT and ORH area would be getting no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Hard to believe BOX has nothing issued here. Hopefully when the next shift shift comes on they realize the error. Someone who didn't follow the wx wold think Northern CT and ORH area would be getting no snow I love reading your posts in the early AM...you're up early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I mean the Euro gives me 10 inches of snow..what is going on at Box? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Hard to believe BOX has nothing issued here. Hopefully when the next shift shift comes on they realize the error. Someone who didn't follow the wx wold think Northern CT and ORH area would be getting no snow It seems like they forgot about Tolland County... not sure what's up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I love reading your posts in the early AM...you're up early today. I'm always up 4:45 ish but many days I run and then shower before logging on. Didn't run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm always up 4:45 ish but many days I run and then shower before logging on. Didn't run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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