Arnold214 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Eh, give both...range is obviously the best way to forecast, but lets hear both. Scooter give your number and range too if you wish. well, right now gotta temper expectations just a bit. I'll go 10.3" with a range of 8-12. CCB megaband overhead for a time throws that out the window but I am gonna keep some room for some taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 WTF You are so strange. There was actually a shooting in my town yesterday, some kids from Conard High School (where I went to high school) were at KFC in my town...I think they were in the gang called 223 and one of the kids had a gun...he shot someone in the neck...and the news report said while he shot the dude he was eating a pound cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will, how would you interpret the EURO for my area.. Mostly or all snow...probably 10" or so. Ratios wont be great there with the exception of maybe during a brief window in the predawn hours while you get the omega bomb...you could maybe get down to 31-32F and blitz 12 or 13 to 1 for a couple hours. But most of that will be 7 or 8 to 1 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's tough. I think the problem of a DS flying north is about equal to temps..actually perhaps a little more of a concern then temps. I'll say 8-13 for now. Guess for you is 11.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Mostly or all snow...probably 10" or so. Ratios wont be great there with the exception of maybe during a brief window in the predawn hours while you get the omega bomb...you could maybe get down to 31-32F and blitz 12 or 13 to 1 for a couple hours. But most of that will be 7 or 8 to 1 stuff. Yes, this is what I was thinking....agreed. EURO and GFS agree on a track over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 well, right now gotta temper expectations just a bit. I'll go 10.3" with a range of 8-12. CCB megaband overhead for a time throws that out the window but I am gonna keep some room for some taint. I probably won't get the mega CCB band...I might get some of it as it collapses SE, but I think the brunt of it will be NW of me. The WCB stuff is where I'll probably pick up most of the accum. I'd agree with your guess. I just want to crack 8.5" to get past 100" and I think I have a pretty good shot. You will get in on the CCB though up there. 14-15" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's tough. I think the problem of a DS flying north is about equal to temps..actually perhaps a little more of a concern then temps. I'll say 8-13 for now. Guess for you is 11.1". Hopefully you beat Arnold's guess, you are a smidge more optimistic than him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 How do you guys think Kev does on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This starts blasting away at night, though.....those 2m temps on the models are a little warm, too. It could be, but I mean 8" or 10", it's not terribly far off. It could very well be 10", but I'd start 8" for now. Yes, the euro argues 10" or more, but I can't forecast something like that during this time of year with one piece of numerical guidance..even if it's right. We could always change tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 How do you guys think Kev does on this run Euro probably gives him 10"...but there's taint for a brief period around 30h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I might get 11" while weenie ridge gets 17". Thats about what happened last February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is the Euro similar to the GFS in terms of how much falls as snow down here Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Hopefully you beat Arnold's guess, you are a smidge more optimistic than him. I'll be honest...I put 10.8" at first..lol. I know the euro buries you, but I wonder if you have a 6 hr bomb, but then lighter crap during the morning at 33F. That's the only thing that sort of holds me back. I guess I would like to see more evidence for you, but those guys to your north could get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If where NW Connecticut lives looks good I'm seriously going to his place for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I probably won't get the mega CCB band...I might get some of it as it collapses SE, but I think the brunt of it will be NW of me. The WCB stuff is where I'll probably pick up most of the accum. I'd agree with your guess. I just want to crack 8.5" to get past 100" and I think I have a pretty good shot. You will get in on the CCB though up there. 14-15" there. Looks like both you and Ray have a good chance to crack 100" (maybe at the same time!) When was the last time you guys hit 100"? 2004-05? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Euro probably gives him 10"...but there's taint for a brief period around 30h. What does it have for BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Alright well off to see what fun is in store for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like both you and Ray have a good chance to crack 100" (maybe at the same time!) When was the last time you guys hit 100"? 2004-05? Yes....he and Kev have very good shots, but it's a bit dubious for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Looks like both you and Ray have a good chance to crack 100" (maybe at the same time!) When was the last time you guys hit 100"? 2004-05? got 114.3" in '04-05, 117.3" in '02-'03 and 102.1" in '00-'01....it was a great decade for 100" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If where NW Connecticut lives looks good I'm seriously going to his place for this storm. Seriously, I would consider going there if I were you just to get away from that pound cake eating gun toting kid. People like that make a great case for much stronger gun control laws-- screw that-- kids like that should have guns forcibly removed from their possession-- no matter what it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Seriously, I would consider going there if I were you just to get away from that pound cake eating gun toting kid. People like that make a great case for much stronger gun control laws-- screw that-- kids like that should have guns forcibly removed from their possession-- no matter what it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yes....he and Kev have very good shots, but it's a bit dubious for me. Well, Im hoping you pull off that 11.5".... I know if I was in your situation, I'd be pissed off if I ended the season at 99 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Seriously, I would consider going there if I were you just to get away from that pound cake eating gun toting kid. People like that make a great case for much stronger gun control laws-- screw that-- kids like that should have guns forcibly removed from their possession-- no matter what it takes. That was like the second ever shooting in my town and it was by some moron high school kid who was involved in one of the most laughed at gangs of all time. We talked on facebook...I told him I'm coming to his house I don't want to stay here and see rain...screw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Haha it's OT, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That was like the second ever shooting in my town and it was by some moron high school kid who was involved in one of the most laughed at gangs of all time. We talked on facebook...I told him I'm coming to his house I don't want to stay here and see rain...screw that. I know, Nate is seriously upset because he thinks there will be an all out snow blitz within 50 miles of his house. It's a great time for a road trip Great timing too-- might as well make a three day weekend out of it. Hopefully Opening Day/Night goes as planned tomorrow, as that would be a great lead in to a storm like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Haha it's OT, sorry In Texas where everyone owns a gun, nobody breaks into homes outside of the interior city areas where people are less likely to own them....otherwise you get a shotgun or a rifle in your grill by some rancher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Anyone have an opinion on amounts for the greater Boston area? Are we still thinking slushy mix/cold, wind-swept rain. I know, Nate is seriously upset because he thinks there will be an all out snow blitz within 50 miles of his house. It's a great time for a road trip Great timing too-- might as well make a three day weekend out of it. Hopefully Opening Day/Night goes as planned tomorrow, as that would be a great lead in to a storm like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well, Im hoping you pull off that 11.5".... I know if I was in your situation, I'd be pissed off if I ended the season at 99 inches lol. 10.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 In Texas where everyone owns a gun, nobody breaks into homes outside of the interior city areas where people are less likely to own them....otherwise you get a shotgun or a rifle in your grill by some rancher. Yeah, those people are a lot more responsible. Guns are probably a good thing down there. I'd like to see more gun control laws being applied to these gang thugs though...... they use their guns as a way of obtaining cheap thrills, it seems. I suspect most of them don't have licenses either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think the one thing we'll need to see is a massive and uninterrupted stream of moisture coming up from BID tomorrow evening. If it's somehow disorganized or not that intense, then all bets are off. I just hope it's not a hundred mile wide arc of lift and then just disorganized crap behind it. The 00z euro and even gfs looked better in minimizing that, but that's where I could see a bust, especially given the position of the mid level lows...although the euro closes off H5 overhead which isn't all that bad. I feel like the GFS was a little weird with the QPF placement se of the Cape, but I kind of like that northward bulge in QPF into central mass that's depicted on the euro, during the early stages of the storm. I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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