weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I dunno. I still wouldn't go higher than 1-3 here... I'm not going to rely on wrap around for 8" here. Yeah that's true...I really wouldn't relay on wrap around any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 And Ray. Enjoy fellas In order Date, 2m temp, 850 temp, pressure, rh, 700rh, 6 hr qpf, 500 height, 1000-500 thk FRI 06Z 01-APR 1.5 -1.8 1007 97 96 0.13 544 538 FRI 12Z 01-APR 0.8 -1.7 998 97 100 0.52 540 541 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.9 -2.8 987 94 81 0.50 530 540 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.8 -6.3 988 87 92 0.25 523 532 SAT 06Z 02-APR 0.7 -5.4 988 85 79 0.04 522 531 1.44"....little more than I thought...thx. That is KBED, right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 1.44"....little more than I thought...thx. That is KBED, right... Yes sir, and no problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Given the slightly colder trends of the other models and now the Euro dropping the hammer, I think I'm going pretty big for Union...like 5-9. Perhaps they could get even more, but I think that is a decent guess right now. The 30h flirt is bothering me to go too much higher. There's a little mini QPF max there too. That seems like a reasonable range for now. 5" in case they DS or warm, but 9" if something like the euro happens...or at least a hedge towards it. It's still highly fluid, but gotta think at 1000ft and being in extreme nrn CT, they have a better shot in the lower levels too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I guess we can avoid this for awhile then... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 i think run can work for the SNE and NNE folk. Good work Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I prob pull about 10" of cement out of that 1.44" of QPF.....what do you guys think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 There's a little mini QPF max there too. That seems like a reasonable range for now. 5" in case they DS or warm, but 9" if something like the euro happens...or at least a hedge towards it. It's still highly fluid, but gotta think at 1000ft and being in extreme nrn CT, they have a better shot in the lower levels too. Having forecasted there for 4 years now, Union is a little sicko spot. They are like the weenie ridge of NE CT. They can pull off 4 or 5" when everyone else gets 1-2"...even in those SW flow events. They seem to hold it off just a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I guess we can avoid this for awhile then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Scooter how do I look at 925mb? 6z looks like rain to me... snow NW of Springfield? 06Z is really tough. You might be a mix at that point. I think you flip to sn after, but 925 temps look like they are around 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LOL at the Will pic. Looks like he was about to embrace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What does it mean for us bboughton, this is for Boston metro: It's better for us, but we still may have boundary layer issues. If we can get a real strong burst of lift, we could have a 33F paste. Lift is going bonkers at 12z. Thanks! Great to see this, I believe the 0z Nam over-corrected. Given the post Will made earlier regarding forecasts prior to 1997, it is certainly possible for this to dramatically change with just a few ticks more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LOL Well now you guys have an image of me sucking on a tailpipe when a storm goes sour for me, lol. I can picture that being posted the next time we see a Dec 19-20, 2009...or a storm that I was barely holding onto snow while you guys were doomed anyway hoping I would fail...then you can post that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Thanks missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LOL at the Will pic. Looks like he was about to embrace. Well, in the original pic he was...just not a tailpipe, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well, in the original pic he was...just not a tailpipe, lol. I've probably reached tailpipe mode here now...we are close enough and the models have trended good enough in this short lead time to get my expectations up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I've probably reached tailpipe mode here now...we are close enough and the models have trended good enough in this short lead time to get my expectations up. The EC kinda puts a wrench in things...especially in CT. What do you forecast for union? 3-5"? 8-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The euro destroys Mike's hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I prob pull about 10" of cement out of that 1.44" of QPF.....what do you guys think... Will, Scoot, Eck.....whenever you get a sec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The EC kinda puts a wrench in things...especially in CT. What do you forecast for union? 3-5"? 8-12? I think I'm going to compromise...5-9 sounds decent right now. I think they will get blasted for a few hours anyway in the warm conveyor belt initial push along the ML warm front. I guess they could get as little as 3", but I'm starting to think in light of non-GFS guidance that they might get that in one hour on the front end. All other guidance has a monster omega burst...GFS was probably convectively contaminated and even the low res ensembles had a monster burst. Tough call though. Because they probably taint during the period of heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I really am kind of angry. I'd go for a walk but I'm afraid to be shot by a high school kid who went to high school where I did eating pound cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The EC kinda puts a wrench in things...especially in CT. What do you forecast for union? 3-5"? 8-12? Gun to your head...Winter Hill total at 900+ feet in N ORH at Holden line, about 3-4 miles NNE of the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will, Scoot, Eck.....whenever you get a sec... 10" still is pushing it at your elevation. If you were maybe 500', I could see that. I'm having trouble with you going higher than 8" at the max for now. It doesn't mean it can't happen, but there are a few things that would hold me back..BL obviously one of them. Perhaps tomorrow might be the point where you can up the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Gun to your head...Winter Hill total at 900+ feet in N ORH at Holden line, about 3-4 miles NNE of the airport. you want a range or a number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 you want a range or a number? Eh, give both...range is obviously the best way to forecast, but lets hear both. Scooter give your number and range too if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 10" still is pushing it at your elevation. If you were maybe 500', I could see that. I'm having trouble with you going higher than 8" at the max for now. It doesn't mean it can't happen, but there are a few things that would hold me back..BL obviously one of them. Perhaps tomorrow might be the point where you can up the total. This starts blasting away at night, though.....those 2m temps on the models are a little warm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 How much do you guys think Tolland, CT will get? 00z Euro looked pretty sweet to me... Ask Kevin in about 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I really am kind of angry. I'd go for a walk but I'm afraid to be shot by a high school kid who went to high school where I did eating pound cake. WTF You are so strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I really am kind of angry. I'd go for a walk but I'm afraid to be shot by a high school kid who went to high school where I did eating pound cake. this sounds like Judge Judy today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will, how would you interpret the EURO for my area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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