CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LOL I just emailed a co-worker about that. What weenies we all are for thinking that at once. Given how the 850 low went east, I wonder if the temps aloft would have cooled if we had the 18z dynamics. One thing is that the 700mb low still stays relatively far west. The storm is not stacked as it crosses so I guess it's possible that you see a relative min over SNE. It's possible I guess but I think there are convective feedback issues east of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 You're getting better @ that. I don't mean a CF, it's more due to temps just aloft. I'm just saying you could be in the middle of a huge snowfall gradient. Whether you're on the good side is still questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 No, its actually good for you on its ptype algorithm. It has snow line SE of you at 12z friday morning while we're getting destroyed. Both Canadian runs are really good, the GGEM is probably a bit better for you than RGEM but both are snowy. How's the GGEM down here? Can't really tell on the B&W charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Cross sections from the 00z NAM at 12z Friday, including potential vorticity and potential temperature. The first runs from eastern VT through western MA and CT. The second runs from western ME through eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GEFS holds serve from 12z http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ryan how do you feel about southern Litchfield County at this point? 3-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 How's the GGEM down here? Can't really tell on the B&W charts. It looks like a case where Collinsville is snowing and HFD is raining, but you are right on the line at 12z friday....but I think it implies a pretty nice thump before that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I just saw the NWS has a winter storm watch up here. wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I don't mean a CF, it's more due to temps just aloft. I'm just saying you could be in the middle of a huge snowfall gradient. Whether you're on the good side is still questionable. You love take those sneaky, passive aggressive Scooter jabs at me, tho.....you are getting more and more nonchalant about it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I gotta think GYX goes big time here (KLEB) in the overnight.... GGEM/RGEM/NAM all look fantastic... Even GFS is like 8+.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ryan how do you feel about southern Litchfield County at this point? 3-5"? Yeah 3-6 probably... but watertown maybe a bit lower. You guys are in a relative snow hole down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I just saw the NWS has a winter storm watch up here. wtf? Been up since 4pm or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It looks like a case where Collinsville is snowing and HFD is raining, but you are right on the line at 12z friday....but I think it implies a pretty nice thump before that time. Love those mornings lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GEFS are pretty useless at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 4AM was just updated at 4PM Been up since 4pm or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 You love take those sneaky, passive aggressive Scooter jabs at me, tho.....you are getting more and more nonchalant about it. lol I'm thinking out loud here..lol, no passive aggressive stuff. There isn't an agenda to get your hopes down, and doesn't mean you can't cash in..just saying there's going to be a big gradient somewhere near your area, I think. Unless models trend east or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Did Ray have any meltdowns this winter? I believe I had one... but I forget which storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm thinking out loud here..lol, no passive aggressive stuff. There isn't an agenda to get your hopes down, and doesn't mean you can't cash in..just saying there's going to be a big gradient somewhere near your area, I think. Unless models trend east or west. I agree. I thought you just threw the part about it being NW to bust on me, even thought it really could....you do that sometimes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah 3-6 probably... but watertown maybe a bit lower. You guys are in a relative snow hole down there. Awww, well at least I live on the north side of town with decent elevation lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Did Ray have any meltdowns this winter? I believe I had one... but I forget which storm. I had one when Boxing Day shredded (many did and I thk you did)...a mini one at the end of the epic stretch, but i was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I had one when Boxing Day shredded many did and I thk you did)...a mini one at the end of the epic stretch, but i was pretty good. Yeah I may have had one on Boxing Day too. If I wasn't so lazy I'd go look for it now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 mm5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah I may have had one on Boxing Day too. If I wasn't so lazy I'd go look for it now lol. You did...you lost it when you started to get graupel, then once you saw RAD shredding, you huffed and puffed off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I agree. I thought you just threw the part about it being NW to bust on me, even thought it really could....you do that sometimes. lol whats your gut feeling for the area Ray? Im hoping I have enough latitude up here to stay snow for awhile, but I know there will be quite a gradent in the area .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I agree. I thought you just threw the part about it being NW to bust on me, even thought it really could....you do that sometimes. lol I do that to Kevin once in a while, just to insert a little reality. I'm not out to be a debbie downer to him or anyone, but I'm only doing it....usually because the threat is real. I won't rain or anyone's parade (no pun intended) if the situation sucks for me. Of course I want snow, but I enjoy weather and the forecasting that goes along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I had one when Boxing Day shredded (many did and I thk you did)...a mini one at the end of the epic stretch, but i was pretty good. I had a meltdown at the beginning of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 whats your gut feeling for the area Ray? Im hoping I have enough latitude up here to stay snow for awhile, but I know there will be quite a gradent in the area .. 6-12"....you're 10-12 and more like 7-10" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I do that to Kevin once in a while, just to insert a little reality. I'm not out to be a debbie downer to him or anyone, but I'm only doing it....usually because the threat is real. I won't rain or anyone's parade (no pun intended) if the situation sucks for me. Of course I want snow, but I enjoy weather and the forecasting that goes along with it. I don't view you as a DD....I know that you are just messing, even if you feel the threat is real. There is a diff when there is malintent and we know who qualifies for that....you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 IMBY: GFS: Decent, esp when corrected for convective boo boo NAM: Good GEM: Very good RGEM: meh EURO: very good (pending) UK: Good I feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I don't view you as a DD....I know that you are just messing, even if you feel the threat is real. There is a diff when there is malintent and we know who qualifies for that....you don't. Ryan def trolls Kevin but its definitely a return favor since he trolls Ryan a lot. That battle every winter is part of the scenery in our threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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