ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Scooter and William... staying up for the Euro??? I'm off tomorrow but not sure I can justify it for a storm that will gibve me rain haha Oh I'll be up for the Euro. I'm having trouble with the Union forecast. I could see them getting a pretty good omega burst even if they flip. The forecast is problematic enough for here, but I feel a bit safer forecasting the N ORH county towns for a pretty good snowfall and not safe at all down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS followed the EURO w regard the to that long range rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Sounds delicious for KLEB... It has like 6" for Will and 20" for AFN. <2" for Ray and Kev though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Oh I'll be up for the Euro. I'm having trouble with the Union forecast. I could see them getting a pretty good omega burst even if they flip. The forecast is problematic enough for here, but I feel a bit safer forecasting the N ORH county towns for a pretty good snowfall and not safe at all down there. I could see 3-5 for Union maybe? My gut tells me the best chance of 3-5 is NW of HFD not NE though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Could not be worse than the sea salt infested severe nightmare I lived at for 18 years 2 mi SSE of KBOS Like I said it all depends, in two years here Ive maybe had 5 good thunderstorms and one was this past Jan 26 in a snowstorm. In your rump chuck em high chuck em low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Scooter and William... staying up for the Euro??? I'm off tomorrow but not sure I can justify it for a storm that will gibve me rain haha Yeah probably. I don't know why, but I'll enjoy the torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It has like 6" for Will and 20" for AFN. <2" for Ray and Kev though Sounds like And maybe even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It looks like you are only a 30-50 mile model tic from being in the thump zone. I'm thinking as it stands now everyone N of Northampton is 6"+. Intensity of precip will make all the difference in the Springfield area. If it rips 25-35dbz for a while before dawn you get plastered. Our in-house 00z MM5 is damn warm but it crushes the area along the ORH County/NH Border and down through like Northampton points north. Hoping this scenario comes to fruition. Good way to end the winter and finally lock into Spring weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah probably. I don't know why, but I'll enjoy the torture. lol yeah me too i guess. Blah.The dog is laying next to me on the couch looking at me like why the F are you still on the laptop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What is the correction vector on that toaster? Is electrocution preceded by a Sonoran heat release? Sounds like And maybe even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think I might stay up for the Euro Finished with my crazy Wednesday (8 hours of classes along with a quiz in Dynamics and Synoptic and a map discussion and a gen ed midterm), and tomorrow I don't have class until 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I could see 3-5 for Union maybe? My gut tells me the best chance of 3-5 is NW of HFD not NE though I have 3-5 for Union currently, but that is the old forecast, not sure if I keep that for the new one. I do think they could snow like gangbusters for 3-4 hours which of course could get them a quick 4-6 if its heavy enough during that first several hours. Its a very tight rope they are walking. Hell the difference between Union and Tolland could be a couple to 3 inches easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Sounds like And maybe even :lmao: Fookn Hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LMAO @ the TIP pic...gona get me every time....I may look foreward to bad runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I have 3-5 for Union currently, but that is the old forecast, not sure if I keep that for the new one. I do think they could snow like gangbusters for 3-4 hours which of course could get them a quick 4-6 if its heavy enough during that first several hours. Its a very tight rope they are walking. Hell the difference between Union and Tolland could be a couple to 3 inches easily. 3-5 is probably safe pending euro. It's definitely a close call though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 CCB pivoting from eyes to my chin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LMAO @ the TIP pic...gona get me every time....I may look foreward to bad runs. I can't stop laughing at it. I saved those pics just to use them later on and next winter. It will definitely make terrible model runs easier to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I can't stop laughing at it. I saved those pics just to use them later on and next winter. It will definitely make terrible model runs easier to take. All on my desktop! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LI's get low on the FOUS. I wonder if someone gets TSSN out of this. The RGEM has one hell of a snow gradient from 128 tp 495 it seems. Man this seems like it has the making for a huge variability in sensible wx over eastern mass. Something tells me the snowfall gradient near Ray is going to be BIG. Maybe it's 10 or 15 miles to his nw, but I get that sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Just looking it over again, that 00z GFS run is def a little se of 12z, but I think it may have failed to really cool because the loss of dynamics negated the se tic.....just a thought......that is likely a convective attributed error, as you guys said...soooooo Thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LI's get low on the FOUS. I wonder if someone gets TSSN out of this. The RGEM has one hell of a snow gradient from 128 tp 495 it seems. Man this seems like it has the making for a huge variability in sensible wx over eastern mass. Something tells me the snowfall gradient near Ray is going to be BIG. Maybe it's 10 or 15 miles to his nw, but I get that sense. You're getting better @ that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GEM actually went about 30 miles SE from 12z good images not out yet, but here are the shat ones: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Just looking it over again, that 00z GFS run is def a little se of 12z, but I think it may have failed to really cool because the loss of dynamics negated the se tic.....just a thought......that is likely a convective attributed error, as you guys said...soooooo Thoughts... I agree, whatever weird convective thing it had going on prevent the lift from being as intense as the previous runs and if we see that intense lift, its going to cool the MLs more. We are seeing it on other runs right now. GGEM came SE a bit but has monster lift over SNE and the 0C line is good enough SE for all snow here and probably for you too. It has snow as ptype to at least 128 12z Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Just looking it over again, that 00z GFS run is def a little se of 12z, but I think it may have failed to really cool because the loss of dynamics negated the se tic.....just a thought......that is likely a convective attributed error, as you guys said...soooooo Thoughts... Yeah I think that's a good point. It looks like there were some convective feedback issues offshore which lead to a relative min in omega over most of SNE with the best forcing out over the Atlantic and west of SNE on the backside of the 700mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GEM actually went about 30 miles SE from 12z good images not out yet, but here are the shat ones: http://www.weatherof...ast/530_100.gif That looks good....I'm sure it will show rain to Montral because it's good like that, but the track is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 LI's get low on the FOUS. I wonder if someone gets TSSN out of this. The RGEM has one hell of a snow gradient from 128 tp 495 it seems. Man this seems like it has the making for a huge variability in sensible wx over eastern mass. Something tells me the snowfall gradient near Ray is going to be BIG. Maybe it's 10 or 15 miles to his nw, but I get that sense. I was thinking that eastern NH has a shot at thundersnow in that band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah I think that's a good point. It looks like there were some convective feedback issues offshore which lead to a relative min in omega over most of SNE with the best forcing out over the Atlantic and west of SNE on the backside of the 700mb low. Lol...we posted that at like the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Any of the models showing a snow event for Boston? LOL I'm clinging to this pipe dream I was thinking that eastern NH has a shot at thundersnow in that band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yeah I think that's a good point. It looks like there were some convective feedback issues offshore which lead to a relative min in omega over most of SNE with the best forcing out over the Atlantic and west of SNE on the backside of the 700mb low. LOL I just emailed a co-worker about that. What weenies we all are for thinking that at once. Given how the 850 low went east, I wonder if the temps aloft would have cooled if we had the 18z dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 That looks good....I'm sure it will show rain to Montral because it's good like that, but the track is nice. No, its actually good for you on its ptype algorithm. It has snow line SE of you at 12z friday morning while we're getting destroyed. Both Canadian runs are really good, the GGEM is probably a bit better for you than RGEM but both are snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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