weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Goes right over ACK and drives midlevels north but after the damage is done. Very nice front ender for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 toasty in almost all of ct, strange, low moved se, seemed to develop further south as well, ds racing from eastern jerz up towards ct at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS still rain here. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 at 36hrs the 850 0c line still seems quite favorable for a NW Ma. thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I lied its like near identical so far but a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will is going to get 18+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's maybe a tad se of the 18z GFS run by 12z Friday, but a hair warmer at 850 over the BOS area. I wonder if we'll deal with nuances like this with any fluctuations of the dynamics, however these fluctuations are huge for areas that are borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 toasty in almost all of ct, strange, low moved se, seemed to develop further south as well, ds racing from eastern jerz up towards ct at 36 I would have thought based on the mid levels features it would have ticked colder than 18z. It did not. Seems to have ticked a bit warmer though almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's amazing that Kevin and me could get virtually no accumulation but Will could get a foot. Dumbfounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's better than 18z for ern areas closer to Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's better than 18z for ern areas closer to Ray. Prob no more snow than previous run because it's also drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Not locking in but I'm thinking like a 1-3 kinda deal metro HFD points immediately SE with 3-6 NW of town (say NW of BDL and most of Litchfield County) with 6-12" in northern Litchfield County NW of Torrington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will is going to get 18+ Well not this run, but give me a NAM/RGEM blend and I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's better than 18z for ern areas closer to Ray. Still looks like a pounding for the E. slope of the Berks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Prob no more snow than previous run because it's also drier. It's thermal profile is better for you than Kevin..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It's thermal profile is better for you than Kevin..lol. NAM did that, too.....RGEM favored Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 at 48hrs sub980 and interior Maine getting crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Off to bed. Next to last snow weenie night of the year? I'm not putting much stock into next week yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 NAM did that, too.....RGEM favored Kev. If you guys are both cold enough in the mid-levels to snow, then he is going to beat you. The way to get him is to have it taint there in the MLs while you are pounding out an isothermal snow bomb for hours longer than him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 im going to get more snow in april then i did in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What a bizarre looking qpf setup on the GFS...that initial burst all gets concentrated SE. We'll have to steal dendrite's toaster from him with that big snowhole in central NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Check out the 48 hour total on the gfs.. the effing dreaded boxing day dry qpf V formation for NH.. awesome Still locking 12+ here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 NAM did that, too.....RGEM favored Kev. You know it will probably come down to nowcasting for some. It always does when you have isothermal layers near 0C. I might be sh*t out of luck, but perhaps you can grab some decent snow. MPM and Pete are going to cash in I think. They actually get into good mid level frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 anyone else concerned about the wind threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Here's to rooting for NAM/RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Off to bed. Next to last snow weenie night of the year? I'm not putting much stock into next week yet. I told my parents on Eastern LI that they would just get rain out of this one but watch out for 6-12" on the 29th anniversary of Aprl '82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What a bizarre looking qpf setup on the GFS...that initial burst all gets concentrated SE. We'll have to steal dendrite's toaster from him with that big snowhole in central NH. Was just thinking that. Doesn't make too much sense given the inflow and mid level features. Probably some convective problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 im going to get more snow in april then i did in march You and me both. Not hard to do considering last March was >1" here and this year is only 3.5" in Greenfield. Anything over 6" here from this storm and I'll lock this year in as a strong A- imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Was just thinking that. Doesn't make too much sense given the inflow and mid level features. Probably some convective problem. Yeah its probably full of sh**, especially given other guidance and even the 18z GFS ensembles. It looked like this run had convective issues pretty early on. Even around 18-24h, it didn't look right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Just poking around at the 850 theta-e and Andy's pwats....I don't know what SD they are, but that looks like one hell of an influx of moisture into SNE. Someone is going to cash in perhaps out in the deformation area, if that can get wrung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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