CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It would destroy Kevin, lol. A compromise between the NAM and RGEM though would probably prompt him to take an electrical bath since that would probably crush the southern ORH hills while he gets tainted. So close, yet so far. 12" for Union... 4" of slush for Mt Tolland slantsticked to 6"? RGEM would pretty much destroy both me and Kevin lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well, time for the heavy hitters. GFS should have some crying or cheering in about 20 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will, can you justify the clown map implying 9", here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 12" for Union... 4" 2" of slush for Mt Tolland slantsticked to 6" 8"? RGEM would pretty much destroy both me and Kevin lol Yes. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will, can you justify the clown map implying 9", here... Its giving you an isothermal snow bomb for a few hours..obviously you are on the line...north of you it stays colder longer so they get like 15"+ and south of you much less. When the gradient is like that, I'd always take the situation with a lot of skepticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 My experience with the NAM is that these borderline 0c flirt kind of deals always wind up a degree or two warmer than progged. I can't even count the number of times the NAM verbatim has been a foot with a deep isothermal barely subfreezing sounding. If we were a solid -2 or -3 at 850 I'd be singing a totally different tune. Those sneaky 800mb warm tongues suck. They always ruin the party. Now if it's not modeled properly that's another story, but that also could be lift dependent. That's what makes this forecast tough for your area and Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Those sneaky 800mb warm tongues suck. They always ruin the party. Now if it's not modeled properly that's another story, but that also could be lift dependent. That's what makes this forecast tough for your area and Kevin. Yeah always a challenge. NAM nails 1 in 10 storms with it's cold soundings usually. If I see the NAM ticking colder and showing -2 or -3c at 850 during the brunt of the storm I think we get blitzed. It's close to happening but we need to see a slight tick east and a slightly faster deepening of the storm to really crank that CCB in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Fookin' GFS... i stay up for it and it starts late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Yes. Kevs ruler is perfectly straight. Im offended. Gfs is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Small differences through six.. nothing of note imo.. lets see the next frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Hydro problems for Westerly on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Still timing discrepancies to hammer out...NAM faster than GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS will be as far or more west than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS will be as far or more west than NAM. I think only slightly NW so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Will, can you justify the clown map implying 9", here... It may be a bit of a stretch but given the dynamics involved I could see you 12/16/07'ing your way to 8 or 9 with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Before we can see how it translates downstream... is that feedback issues over Alabama/Georgia at 18hrs? EDIT: scratch that had a cached file Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Massive shadow downslope for HFD on RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Not bad through hr 30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS will be as far or more west than NAM. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS will be as far or more west than NAM. Actually no. It's a nice trend it seems. Through 30...appears to have moderate snow to NH border, heavy precip in CT/RI. H85 line from about PVD-WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Actually no. It's a nice trend it seems. Through 30...appears to have moderate snow to NH border, heavy precip in CT/RI. H85 line from about PVD-WSW. Slightly north jerry ... less amped also. Qpf shield is further north at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Why? I was looking and interpreting it incorrectly. Now through 33 and even BOS is still snowing heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 It looks like that last piece of s/w energy at hr 30 is more concentrated and trying to develop the low a little south. Kind of tough to see what it will do afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Still toasty here in CT. I don't think this run will do it for us, unfortunately. Up north you may be luckier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Slightly north jerry ... less amped also. Qpf shield is further north at 30 LOL...you use your ride to buy a SV subscription? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Dead nuts on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 GFS still rain here. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 All the precip is getting shoved east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Gully Washer for me awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Goes right over ACK and drives midlevels north but after the damage is done. Very nice front ender for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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