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Tulip Trouncer Threat IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Are you going to be in Winter Hill for this? Or driving to Weenie Ridge?

I'll probably park myself on winter hill at 900+ feet. If weenie ridge gets ripped in this, usually I will too, but on rare occasions the line might set up between us. In storms like this though, the line often sets up almost over ORH...the south side gets 5-6" of slop while North Worcester gets 10-12"...I've seen that a few times and it happened last February. But I think 900+ feet on the northern edge of the city should be ok.

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I'll probably park myself on winter hill at 900+ feet. If weenie ridge gets ripped in this, usually I will too, but on rare occasions the line might set up between us. In storms like this though, the line often sets up almost over ORH...the south side gets 5-6" of slop while North Worcester gets 10-12"...I've seen that a few times and it happened last February. But I think 900+ feet on the northern edge of the city should be ok.

Yup. I fully expect to get 4-5" while you get a foot. Congrats.

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There's a good chance that I would drink Noble Pils even if it flowed through a sewer pipe.

Best Sam seasonal after Octoberfest.

But to keep this weather related...let's say I do decide to priceline a flight up there...best spot?

Monadnocks of SW NH or the foothills of SW ME I think would be the two "safest" places to get ripped. Any further NW and you might risk getting skunked by less qpf and further SE could involve taint issues...like that I am trying to avoid.

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I'll probably park myself on winter hill at 900+ feet. If weenie ridge gets ripped in this, usually I will too, but on rare occasions the line might set up between us. In storms like this though, the line often sets up almost over ORH...the south side gets 5-6" of slop while North Worcester gets 10-12"...I've seen that a few times and it happened last February. But I think 900+ feet on the northern edge of the city should be ok.

Wow, interesting. I think you are OK personally, but then again I am hugging the 12z ECM/ECM ENS. I don't even bother using the GFS since it seems to want to take wrong forecasts to the grave these days. I assume you are talking about the 2/24 storm last February, as the 2/25 Snowicane was probably all rain, even at elevation. Even the Green Mountains went to rain in that, unfortunately. That 2/24 coastal was a fun one, however. Very interesting how the banding ripped north up the Hudson Valley, must have been some deep southerly flow, Will...just crushed the Champlain Valley even with unfavorable BL wind direction that normally would have downsloped us. Andrew and I were the two people who went aggressive for Middlebury, he forecast 12-16" and I forecast 20" a couple days before on our radio show, NWS was going 3-6". We got lucky with that forecast, stayed all snow and got the 20". Had to drive home in it to make it back to NYC for Snowicane, very treacherous roads in VT.

I think a lot of people are going with the American guidance in this storm, which is why they are concerned. I think we'll see the GFS continue to trend south as it did on 3/24, ended up tracking off VA when it had the low off NJ.

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Hmm think you are understating, maps I see say 3-8 from Central CT N

The NAM sucks for you and me. It's a valley nightmare. The hills just west like West Simsbury, Granby, and Burlington get hit hard.

We never get above freezing at 850 here on the NAM but that won't cut it. Need -2 or -3 I think to get big snows here in the valley.

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NW CT... The NAM destroys you. Harwinton is probably ripping snow at 1000 feet while Collinsville is pouring.

Call me Chris...thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

and I've felt good about this all along at 970'. The top of my hill literally right up the road is almost 1100 I think. It should be wild.

One of my teachers in high school told us a story about him coming to school one day...rain all the way up from Manchester into collinsville then 11" of snow in Burlington at about 1k...if you're not familiar Collinsville is about a 10 minute drive from Lewis Mills High School. He didn't even check to see if school was closed cause it was raining, but when he got there there was a foot of slop and a closed school.

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