CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Nzucker becomes the first person since CT Blizz that I've put on ignore before a storm. Impressive! I'd like to see the GFS tick east and wind up a bit earlier. A lot to ask for but that would get me a bit excited. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I am not trying to troll him, I just think slight elevated areas of SW CT and SE NY could be ground zero for this storm if the Euro verifies and that potential should be discussed. I think that is quite a stretch, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ryan doesn't the Greater Waterbury area look like a tough forecast for a heavy snow accumulation? The closer can we tag you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think that is quite a stretch, lol. What is he smoking, tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ryan doesn't the Greater Waterbury area look like a tough forecast for a heavy snow accumulation? I think most of CT is out of the game for "big" totals over 6" outside of Litchfield County. It's just not our storm. If we see a sizable shift east in the globals with a wound up and dynamic storm then we may get lucky. We'll see. I'm logged on at 11pm on a Wednesday which means I'm at least somewhat interested! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm thinking it is going to be very difficult to get much snow here. Maybe 1-3" if we're lucky. Yeah I'm becoming less and less impressed for our area...I said 2-5'' with my first call earlier but the truth is the WAA is going to kill us, especially the strength of it, this just isn't a setup for us, with the exception of the higher elevations in CT (Litchfield Hills) were not seeing much snow at all. Congrats to those who are able to see kostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I think that is quite a stretch, lol. haha i know it's like talking to someone on another planet. Anyway I've moved on... back to the storm! I cracked open a Sam and am excited to stay up for a while and watch the models roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 WRONG. That ripped DUE n THROUGH SNE.....do your.HW. Yes, I know it tracked up the CT River Valley, so it wasn't the same as this storm, but it did have that bubble of warmth ahead of the low that changed many people over in CT/RI/MA while NNJ and SE NY got hammered. That is why I am making the comparison. Surely, this won't be as bad for you. I think that is quite a stretch, lol. I don't think they will get huge jackpot amounts but it could be dangerous with high winds near the coastline and snow being unexpected. I am just saying that the hardest areas to forecast, and those that could easily see a warning event without expecting it, are elevated locales in SW CT, parts of Northern Westchester/Putnam, and NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 What is he smoking, tonight. crystal meth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 haha i know it's like talking to someone on another planet. Anyway I've moved on... back to the storm! I cracked open a Sam and am excited to stay up for a while and watch the models roll in. You should do your live shot about 30 miles nw of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 haha i know it's like talking to someone on another planet. Anyway I've moved on... back to the storm! I cracked open a Sam and am excited to stay up for a while and watch the models roll in. Im telling you Ryan, I cracked a nobile pils, i have been a sam fan forever, but this stuff is gold 41/33 calm overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The NAM has to be overdone, has to be. I think the ETA's organization of jackpots is near perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 You should do your live shot about 30 miles nw of you. Winsted, CT may be a nice place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Im telling you Ryan, I cracked a nobile pils, i have been a sam fan forever, but this stuff is gold 41/33 calm overcast Dude I know... Noble Pils rocks. I love that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The NAM has to be overdone, has to be. I think the ETA's organization of jackpots is near perfect Clearly overdone, S NH isn't seeing 1.5" of QPF in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I don't think they will get huge jackpot amounts but it could be dangerous with high winds near the coastline and snow being unexpected. I am just saying that the hardest areas to forecast, and those that could easily see a warning event without expecting it, are elevated locales in SW CT, parts of Northern Westchester/Putnam, and NNJ. If the Euro verified, you might get some 2-4" type amounts, but the precip just isn't overly heavy by that point and its midday when it does occur on the back end. I suppose some of those 1000 foot areas in SE NY would have a shot at warning snows, but most areas lower down would not get significant accums. If we see a stronger CCB then its possible the amounts could be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is nzucker always this terrible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Norfolk Ct should rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 At any rate, I probably won't make it up. But good luck to those who look to get destroyed. Looks like Central NH, Western ME is the place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm at the watering hole, nam is way west right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Winsted, CT may be a nice place to be. Ive said a million times you can park the thing at my house haha. 1k, on a nice NW facing hill...golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Norfolk Ct should rip They will probably get smoked. Could be like two different planets between downtown HFD and Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Norfolk Ct should rip No doubt. They always do. I wonder what they're at for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Is nzucker always this terrible? Coming for a northern visit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 If the Euro verified, you might get some 2-4" type amounts, but the precip just isn't overly heavy by that point and its midday when it does occur on the back end. I suppose some of those 1000 foot areas in SE NY would have a shot at warning snows, but most areas lower down would not get significant accums. If we see a stronger CCB then its possible the amounts could be higher. Yeah we need a bit more intensity....988mb south of LI isn't terrible on the Euro, but -1C 850s is really pushing it in early April. I'm also nervous about how the 18z GFS takes the H7 track right over NYC, which would almost certainly be doom here. Upton does seem pretty aggressive...they are going with 2" here and 6" to my NW for areas like Middletown. You guys seem to disagree, and frankly I might too, not really sure what I think about this storm. I honestly believe it will just come down to nowcasting radar and seeing who gets the heavy banding/dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 They will probably get smoked. Could be like two different planets between downtown HFD and Norfolk. It's like that for most storms haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 At any rate, I probably won't make it up. But good luck to those who look to get destroyed. Looks like Central NH, Western ME is the place to be N ORH county...I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ryan thanks for the insight. You are always give a level headed, educated response when others let these anomalous weather events drive them crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm at the watering hole, nam is way west right? Right over your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'm at the watering hole, nam is way west right? toss the nam. its the charlie sheen of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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