dendrite Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 wow congrats dendrite The dreaded congrats 24hrs before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Dude you're not getting anything on the NAM. You know enough meteorology (at least I thought you did) to not rely on the 850 0c line as the end all be all. Come on man. You honestly have been more irritating than Kevin this storm (which is a remarkable feat). did you text kev with the good news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Might be able to thump for a few hours around 03z here before the warmer mid-level air moves in, but I hope this is not a signal to the rest of the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The dreaded congrats 24hrs before the event. Bullseye Nova Scotia now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Even though the 850 temps got cooler the 2m temps got a tick warmer. I'm guessing the snow probs struggle with 2m temp progs of 32-33F. That's probably it then. The SREF probs tend to really suck a fat one when there's a marginal boundary layer. I remember before the Feb 23-24 event last year (the paste job before the retro nightmare), they had almost 0% prob for >4", meanwhile 10-18" later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The dreaded congrats 24hrs before the event. Tag, Your it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 did you text kev with the good news? I stay away from him before snow events. We'll pick up our friendship on Friday afternoon after I get in one "I told you so" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I stay away from him before snow events. We'll pick up our friendship on Friday afternoon after I get in one "I told you so" So no news crew in Tolland this time... Did you ever post that vid to Youtube or anyplace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'd love to see a decent snow IMBY, but I'd prefer some great late April skiing up north.I'm thinking a lot of wet snow/rain mix here, some slush, and, hopefully, a big dump for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Might be able to thump for a few hours around 03z here before the warmer mid-level air moves in, but I hope this is not a signal to the rest of the 00z suite. huuuuuuuuuuugE win by the sabres tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Dude you're not getting anything on the NAM. You know enough meteorology (at least I thought you did) to not rely on the 850 0c line as the end all be all. Come on man. You honestly have been more irritating than Kevin this storm (which is a remarkable feat). The NAM is hurting us in the 850-800 layer. It's got a pretty strong warm tongue coming in. It's actually kind of cold in the 900mb level, but that's what the NAM is doing. The 500 progs didn't have a huge adjustment, but just enough to take that low and force it north I guess. The surface prog reminds me of almost every storm this year..it has an appendage or extension of isobars to the north of the low when it nears the Canal. It's a strong ageostrophic flow signal, but that layer between 850 and 800mb is the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Tag, Your it... I'll be perfectly happy with the ETA. I'm hitting the sack. Hopefully the GFS/EC bury many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 So no news crew in Tolland this time... Did you ever post that vid to Youtube or anyplace? I have the DVD I have to rip it. Maybe tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Dude you're not getting anything on the NAM. You know enough meteorology (at least I thought you did) to not rely on the 850 0c line as the end all be all. Come on man. You honestly have been more irritating than Kevin this storm (which is a remarkable feat). It's amazing that you can't discuss with people who disagree with you. Everyone knows this storm is an extremely close call for W CT/NYC metro/SE NY, so I'm just starting a bit of conversation about the areas that look to be most marginal including parts of SNE. I'm not saying the 850mb 0C line is the end all, I remarked in the NYC threads that the 0z NAM would be rain here at 30 since you need colder 850s for snow in April, and you generally don't snow right on the 850 isotherm anyway unless you have amazing omega. Of course the NAM does give a bit on the backside down towards Greenwich/White Plains, so that looks like snow. But I'm sorry you don't understand the need to discuss when we've got the 850 line literally running from JFK to the South Coast. That's probably it then. The SREF probs tend to really suck a fat one when there's a marginal boundary layer. I remember before the Feb 23-24 event last year (the paste job before the retro nightmare), they had almost 0% prob for >4", meanwhile 10-18" later.... The clown maps for the GFS/NAM also tend to have unnaturally large cut-offs with surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The 00z GFS will be near ACK, and the toasters will slowly rise out of the water. yes would not be surprised... the Euro and ensembles, 18Z RGEM, and even 18Z GoF*ckSne all nudged slightly east this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Well I got my weenie run for the event...it can only get worse from this. well I know I'd be devastated if it slipped to below 2" qpf.... lol. the other models have all been over an inch yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 So no news crew in Tolland this time... Did you ever post that vid to Youtube or anyplace? no, he's coming to my house when I mini-jackpot with a foot . obviously norfolk, cornwall will jackpot but no one lives out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Socks this is not a close call at all for SW CT or immediate metro NYC lol. I'm wondering whether the Litchfield Hills of CT get 3" or 10" at this point you guys are far out of the game as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 The dreaded congrats 24hrs before the event. And from a widely unstable NAM. It's a curse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I'll be perfectly happy with the ETA. I'm hitting the sack. Hopefully the GFS/EC bury many. I want on on this wagon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 My parents will love the 24" of cement on Friday. They're already p*ssed at me for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 well I know I'd be devastated if it slipped to below 2" qpf.... lol. the other models have all been over an inch yes? Yes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Socks this is not a close call at all for SW CT or immediate metro NYC lol. I'm wondering whether the Litchfield Hills of CT get 3" or 10" at this point you guys are far out of the game as far as I'm concerned. How bout for our area? Looks very very close to alot of snow.... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This is classic stuff tonight, tubes trolling Ryan, nam jumps 1,000 miles west, hi res giving me snow tonight, and the gfs will show a snowbomb for most of sne, great great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Socks this is not a close call at all for SW CT or immediate metro NYC lol. I'm wondering whether the Litchfield Hills of CT get 3" or 10" at this point you guys are far out of the game as far as I'm concerned. You can tell that to Upton who is going with winter storm watches here and 2" accumulations even for me. Maybe they know more about our area than some guy on TV in Hartford? I think your track is way too far north/warm, and I also think you're underestimating how far north the 0C 850s will rip in Central CT compared to SW CT...this looks like a warmer version of December 2000 all over again and we know what happened to eastern New England in that storm. I don't see why you think NYC metro is out of the game when the 12z ECM placed the 0C 850 line at 48 hours over JFK and the 12z ECM ENS had it near OKX...that's definitely snow for the NW suburbs with some elevation, as well as many parts of CT. Areas that I'm really concerned about forecasting for are Danbury, Waterbury, White Plains, etc. It's pretty easy not to be aggressive in Manhattan but not so sure about these suburban locales... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 How bout for our area? Looks very very close to alot of snow.... ? I'm thinking it is going to be very difficult to get much snow here. Maybe 1-3" if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 This is classic stuff tonight, tubes trolling Ryan, nam jumps 1,000 miles west, hi res giving me snow tonight, and the gfs will show a snowbomb for most of sne, great great stuff. I am not trying to troll him, I just think slight elevated areas of SW CT and SE NY could be ground zero for this storm if the Euro verifies and that potential should be discussed. BTW if you want to know obs from upstream, here is what I've got: -SNRA 42.9/30 (downtown, don't have an accurate thermometer) Looks like decent flakes are being formed in the upper levels but rapidly melting as they meet the warmer surface. BL is just horrible right now, this is why I'm worried for Dobbs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 How bout for our area? Looks very very close to alot of snow.... ? Not so sure about Newington. Down in the valley really won't do too well in my opinion. Elevation is horrible down there. I'd want to be at 1k+ in CT for this, west and north is better...up in MA and NH/VT/ME elevation might not matter as much cause they're further from the low but around here I think you really need 1-1.5k' to really see a lot of snow in all seriousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Ryan doesn't the Greater Waterbury area look like a tough forecast for a heavy snow accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 You can tell that to Upton who is going with winter storm watches here and 2" accumulations even for me. Maybe they know more about our area than some guy on TV in Hartford? I think your track is way too far north/warm, and I also think you're underestimating how far north the 0C 850s will rip in Central CT compared to SW CT...this looks like a warmer version of December 2000 all over again and we know what happened to eastern New England in that storm. I don't see why you think NYC metro is out of the game when the 12z ECM placed the 0C 850 line at 48 hours over JFK and the 12z ECM ENS had it near OKX...that's definitely snow for the NW suburbs with some elevation, as well as many parts of CT. Areas that I'm really concerned about forecasting for are Danbury, Waterbury, White Plains, etc. It's pretty easy not to be aggressive in Manhattan but not so sure about these suburban locales... WRONG. That ripped DUE n THROUGH SNE.....do your HW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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