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Tulip Trouncer Threat IV


Baroclinic Zone

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Definitely a toaster run for Kevin and Ray...while I measure naked in huge aggregates.

Do you think models like the NAM are ignoring the climo sensibility that says that Ray would generally stay cold enough in a storm like this, with not much of a difference between his area and ORH? It seems like a lot of the guidance really wants to rip that warm tongue into NE CT and E MA, but I wonder if that warmth will stay somewhere, and there'll be a boundary with heavy snow on the north side around Ray.

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Needless to say, I maybe hitting the road tmw.

Its the NAM...lol. I knew it was going to come in with an amped up qpf bomb at some point. Other guidance (most notably the best model) is in your camp, so I wouldn't sweat a ridiculous NAM run.

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