CNYWxGuy Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Quite a difference in Track / Outcomes, but the common denominator between the GFS and Euro is yet another strong LP system affecting the NEUS by the middle of next week.... 12z GFS... 12z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I had to post this H5 map = weather porn if I've ever seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 0z Euro pushes a Sub 988mb LP into Ontario / Quebec... Surface temps on the Euro reach to around 60°F from BGM to ALY on Tuesday Afternoon before what looks to be a squall line pushes thru on Tuesday Evening along a cold front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 After tonight's storm , bring on spring...Im suprised im not in a mental institute after this winter with the models.. It felt like spring and smelt like spring overnight with some light rain, i love the smell of rain lol Time to move on and kinda hope this is a nice mild rainstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 lots of rain on the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 A widespread / significant severe weather event looks like a good bet with this system across areas of the MS / TN / OH Valleys as currently outlooked by SPC. Not sure just yet, but depending on the strength and track of the system, it's conceivable there could be some severe weather possibilities up this way, maybe... Yes it could be active in MS and OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 12Z GFS screams High Wind Event for Much Of the Eastern Great Lakes, specifically Upstate NY late Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 12Z GFS screams High Wind Event for Much Of the Eastern Great Lakes, specifically Upstate NY late Monday night. Perhaps...perhaps not. I have just looked at data in a very casual way. LP track may be too far north but then again its strength is impressive for sure. I'll check delta-p fields, HFC , stability and gradient wind data later today. I also like the possibility of a low-top QLCS or CFRB with damaging winds and possible spinups for NYS...moving west to east during Monday night Tuesday AM. Definitely holds promise of some interesting SPRING weather possibilities that ain't snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 12Z GFS screams High Wind Event for Much Of the Eastern Great Lakes, specifically Upstate NY late Monday night. Perhaps...perhaps not. I have just looked at data in a very casual way. LP track may be too far north but then again its strength is impressive for sure. I'll check delta-p fields, HFC , stability and gradient wind data later today. I also like the possibility of a low-top QLCS or CFRB with damaging winds and possible spinups for NYS...moving west to east during Monday night Tuesday AM. Definitely holds promise of some interesting SPRING weather possibilities that ain't snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 After a closer perusal of 12z data (in WINGRIDDS) (alas 12z NAM didn't ingest properly waiting on 18z)... low top convective potential still looks okay IMO for NYS during Tuesday AM. Focusing in on ENY and the HV, it appears that we have a Low Cape High Shear (LCHS) potential that is moderate. Soundings for Tues 06z have an inverted-V look for ALB, GLOVERSVILLE and POU : Steep L/R from 1000-850 millibars of around 6.5-7. An axis 48-52 TT across ECNY to extreme Western VT/MA. Speed shear but since most of the area appears to be in the warm sector there isn't much if any LL shear AOB 850 (although last nights 06z NAM did have light to moderat directional shear in N-S oriented valleys). Theta-e decrease with height was moderate at most sites so downburst potential is high. Hodo's weren't hooked to much (Albany did have a very broad hooked one) thus chance for brief spinups is probably low to slightly above nil. Threat appears to be mostly from downbursts/microbursts. Post cold frontal winds could be strong too favorable tracks of HFC and delta-p along with dry slotting combined with minimal directional shear through height but winds increasing with height thru 700-500 hPa could lead o some intense winds gusts of at least 55 mph and maybe as high as 65-70 mph (esp higher elevations of NYS). Here are the SkewT and Hodo for Albany from the 18z-2 April NAM (med res): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 18Z NAM maybe speeding up FROPA a bit by 3-6 hours: Here are some of the charts from the 02 Apr 18z NAM run to assess the Post cold frontal WIND POTENTIAL First SKEWT: Potential for deep mixing to near 700 hPa. Nearly "coincidental" H5 and H3 jets (both very strong over or just east of Albany) H850 winds, temp (red) and DP grey. Note widespread 40 + kt westerly winds 50kts across 'Dacks and 55-60 kts along I-90 thru MV! H7 similar strong winds note 12 hour temp changes of -8 to -10/11C across NYS H5 HFC of 260 meters across NYS! Surface katallobaric changes (delta-p): H700 RH (possible only negative factor) moderately moist across EC-E NY BUT Westerly flow and downslope may increase drying. Strong H5 PVA/VORT sliding ENE-NE across EC-E NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I updated my blog: Wx4cast's Blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 The severe weather will start today...and go thru Tuesday....When I checked earlier MLCAPE values in some places were in the 3000 to 4000J/Kg range, a strong LLJ (65-80 knots) will move tons of moisture into the system. Now take The instability Andy was talking about and the ingredients are there for a very large severe weather outbreak. The CF will be moving fairly quickly, so as capping inversion get weaker and LLC increases we will see numerous TS spring up. The Ozarks will see the worse of it....But parts of the OH valley and PA will see severe weather too.....The treats will include Wind, large hail, MCS and tornadoes...many of which could be of the nocturnal variety. Right now, it looks like NYS will miss the brunt of this....but it will be a close call and it will have to be watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 The severe weather will start today...and go thru Tuesday....When I checked earlier MLCAPE values in some places were in the 3000 to 4000J/Kg range, a strong LLJ (65-80 knots) will move tons of moisture into the system. Now take The instability Andy was talking about and the ingredients are there for a very large severe weather outbreak. The CF will be moving fairly quickly, so as capping inversion get weaker and LLC increases we will see numerous TS spring up. The Ozarks will see the worse of it....But parts of the OH valley and PA will see severe weather too.....The treats will include Wind, large hail, MCS and tornadoes...many of which could be of the nocturnal variety. Right now, it looks like NYS will miss the brunt of this....but it will be a close call and it will have to be watched closely. I never trust warm fropas happening at night fall-spring across NYS. Could still see QLCS/LT CFRB action here. Models often don't "show" it until either the day of the even or even until 6 or 12 hours out. Ah..to be chasing in MO or AR with an experienced chaser but then again you're right a lot of nocturnal potential for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I never trust warm fropas happening at night fall-spring across NYS. Could still see QLCS/LT CFRB action here. Models often don't "show" it until either the day of the even or even until 6 or 12 hours out. Ah..to be chasing in MO or AR with an experienced chaser but then again you're right a lot of nocturnal potential for sure. You're right, we're not out of the woods....and this will have to be watched. It's challenging to chase in the Ozarks and I don't know of many who will chase down in that area at night.....It's hard enough to see and keep up with the cells during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 This should be the first real outbreak of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I never trust warm fropas happening at night fall-spring across NYS. Could still see QLCS/LT CFRB action here. Models often don't "show" it until either the day of the even or even until 6 or 12 hours out. Ah..to be chasing in MO or AR with an experienced chaser but then again you're right a lot of nocturnal potential for sure. You're right with the mid to upper air dynamics beast of the QLCS variety are a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Flood Watches issued for all of W NY / NC NY / MV and ALY portion of the Dack region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...HAMILTON...MONTGOMERY...FULTON... HERKIMER...NORTHERN WARREN...AND WESTERN SCHENECTADY. * FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON * RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. AS NOTED ABOVE...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVEPRECIPITATION IS THERE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ENTIRE CWA WILL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE FEATURED STEADY OR RISING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN REGIONS TO GET NEAR 60. WITH SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP WITH THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 The mid level lapse rates are steep and the there is just enough lift that we could see a few storms popup when the warm front swing through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Nice evap cooling/wet bulbing going on west thru north of Lake George resulting in a burst of moderate wet snow...sloppy accumulation of up 2" possible this location thru 10 am before change to rain happens. Already have 1" on the ground in Indian Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 About 1/2" on the ground here at 1800' @ 5:30, nothing from 1700' and down. Moderate rain for the past couple hours, I would guess all the new snow is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Temp still only 39° with a little over .4" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Looking at sounding data, lapse rates and instability are such that we could have a few T-storms during the overnight. However, I don't see the strong winds aloft coming down ....but small hail is still a possibility by small I mean pea to marble / M&M size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Over to all snow here, 15 miles west of Syracuse, with some precip still to move through. Gotta beieve that the higher hills get a couple of inches today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Over to all snow here, 15 miles west of Syracuse, with some precip still to move through. Gotta beieve that the higher hills get a couple of inches today.. Flipped to all snow here on the SU hill about 1/2 hr. ago....nice big dendrites!!! I agree that higher hills may get or are getting a little whitening. Nice SLP wave depicted in EPA....probably enough so to hold the surface mositure and lift a bit further west to surprise us a bit in CNY and points north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 NWS was going for 2-3 inches of rain in the southern dacks, did anyone see anywhere near that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Moderate snow here on the hill at 1650 feet. Ground is white on non-paved surfaces. Just starting to stick to the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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