Spring 1/3 over. miserable so far

[rainstorm]

cold and rainy and it looks like the rain cold pattern will continue. the most miserable spring since i moved here.

[MN Transplant]

cold and rainy and it looks like the rain cold pattern will continue. the most miserable spring since i moved here.

March '09 was colder and rainier for Norfolk than this year, including a string from Mar 13 - 25 where the temps only cracked 50 3 times.

[iammrben]

May 2003 was pretty ****ty, too. No sun for something like 25-30 days straight, which kept temps in the 50s and 60s and gave everyone raging cases of SAD.

[FrederickWX]

I'm not holding out much hope for April - looking like below normal temps generally continue. Wouldn't be surprised to see us set up on a semi-permanent frontal boundary for most of the month - people who love/need spring sunshine and warmth are going to be ready to hang themselves in a few weeks as the clouds and chilly weather dominate.

[Riptide]

I'm not holding out much hope for April - looking like below normal temps generally continue. Wouldn't be surprised to see us set up on a semi-permanent frontal boundary for most of the month - people who love/need spring sunshine and warmth are going to be ready to hang themselves in a few weeks as the clouds and chilly weather dominate.

Long-range GFS is honking warmth and epic severe weather, NAO is also going positive. The end of next week should start feeling more spring-like.

[Ian]

I'm not holding out much hope for April - looking like below normal temps generally continue. Wouldn't be surprised to see us set up on a semi-permanent frontal boundary for most of the month - people who love/need spring sunshine and warmth are going to be ready to hang themselves in a few weeks as the clouds and chilly weather dominate.

i dunno, the first half of the month looks mild/warm to me (after this weekend). we could flip back or get screwed by a cutoff or something but +NAO signal keeps getting more pronounced: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

[RodneyS]

cold and rainy and it looks like the rain cold pattern will continue. the most miserable spring since i moved here.

Actually, March 2011 was above normal temperature-wise in much of the mid-Atlantic until the last few days. For example, Reagan National averaged a high of 56.8 F through the 22nd versus a normal high of about 54.1 for those 22 days. Since then, however, the average high has been only 48.0, with today likely to bring the average down to about 47.7 for the last nine days of the month, versus a normal high of about 59.6 for March 23-31. It has been rainier than normal, but DC will probably check in at only about the 25th rainiest on the all-time list, which dates to 1871.

I think it feels worse than it actually has been because generally temperatures warm up throughout March, rather than cooling down at the end.

[clueless]

i dunno, the first half of the month looks mild/warm to me (after this weekend). we could flip back or get screwed by a cutoff or something but +NAO signal keeps getting more pronounced: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

That chart is a thing of beauty.

[Riptide]

Actually, March 2011 was above normal temperature-wise in much of the mid-Atlantic until the last few days. For example, Reagan National averaged a high of 56.8 F through the 22nd versus a normal high of about 54.1 for those 22 days. Since then, however, the average high has been only 48.0, with today likely to bring the average down to about 47.7 for the last nine days of the month, versus a normal high of about 59.6 for March 23-31. It has been rainier than normal, but DC will probably check in at only about the 25th rainiest on the all-time list, which dates to 1871.

I think it feels worse than it actually has been because generally temperatures warm up throughout March, rather than cooling down at the end.

Well said. There really was no significant period of cold or warmth, unlike the end of February which was very warm.

[Ian]

Well said. There really was no significant period of cold or warmth, unlike the end of February which was very warm.

i'd say the last week is fairly significant cold. avging about a -9?

[North Balti Zen]

i'd say the last week is fairly significant cold. avging about a -9?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Um, this.

[FrederickWX]

i dunno, the first half of the month looks mild/warm to me (after this weekend). we could flip back or get screwed by a cutoff or something but +NAO signal keeps getting more pronounced: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

Hope you're right Ian. WIth a positive NAO and positive AO, you would think that things would go warm.

[Riptide]

i'd say the last week is fairly significant cold. avging about a -9?

The water kept things moderated here for sure, especially at night.

[rainstorm]

JB is now saying may will be cooler than normal.

[WxUSAF]

JB is now saying may will be cooler than normal.

I'll break out the shorts and sun block

[clueless]

I'll break out the shorts and sun block

Next week seems to get to just about average, but barely. I hope you are right.

[North Balti Zen]

A further agreement with "miserable" for the month just passed...even a lot of the warm days were not entirely pleasant as howling winds marked a number of those days as well. Just a crappy start to the proceedings.

[RodneyS]

Actually, March 2011 was above normal temperature-wise in much of the mid-Atlantic until the last few days. For example, Reagan National averaged a high of 56.8 F through the 22nd versus a normal high of about 54.1 for those 22 days. Since then, however, the average high has been only 48.0, with today likely to bring the average down to about 47.7 for the last nine days of the month, versus a normal high of about 59.6 for March 23-31. It has been rainier than normal, but DC will probably check in at only about the 25th rainiest on the all-time list, which dates to 1871.

I think it feels worse than it actually has been because generally temperatures warm up throughout March, rather than cooling down at the end.

The last nine days of March finished with an average high of 47.3 degrees at DCA, or about 12.3 degrees off the 1971-2000 normal high for that period. According to my daily high temperature records for Washington, DC, which date back to 1872, this average high for March 23-31 is the lowest since 1906, when the last nine days of March averaged a high of 44.7. Prior to that, 1887 averaged a high of 46.7 for those nine days, and 1883 set the record low maximum for March 23-31 with an average high of only 44.1. However, all three of those Marchs were well below average throughout the month. So, if you consider the drop in temperature between the first 22 days of March and the last nine days, what happened this year was more unusual than in those years. In fact, the drop in the average high temperature between March 1-22 and March 23-31 this year of 9.4 degrees has been exceeded only twice in DC history -- in 1990, when the drop averaged 11.3 degrees; and in 1894, when the drop averaged 13.8 degrees.

So, what happened this year in late March in DC temperature-wise was very unusual, although not unprecedented. However, for the month as a whole, the average high was 54.0, which places March 2011 in the middle historically, as the 72st warmest March out of 141 years. Further, the average (high and low average) temperature was 45.6, which places March 2011 as the 62nd warmest March. Precipitation was lower than anticipated yesterday, and so March 2011 precipitation at DCA finished at 4.40 inches, which places it 38th historically. All in all, not a particularly unusual month if you view it as a composite, but pretty interesting when you break it down between the first 22 days and the last nine days.

[FrederickWX]

The last nine days of March finished with an average high of 47.3 degrees at DCA, or about 12.3 degrees off the 1971-2000 normal high for that period. According to my daily high temperature records for Washington, DC, which date back to 1872, this average high for March 23-31 is the lowest since 1906, when the last nine days of March averaged a high of 44.7. Prior to that, 1887 averaged a high of 46.7 for those nine days, and 1883 set the record low maximum for March 23-31 with an average high of only 44.1. However, all three of those Marchs were well below average throughout the month. So, if you consider the drop in temperature between the first 22 days of March and the last nine days, what happened this year was more unusual than in those years. In fact, the drop in the average high temperature between March 1-22 and March 23-31 this year of 9.4 degrees has been exceeded only twice in DC history -- in 1990, when the drop averaged 11.3 degrees; and in 1894, when the drop averaged 13.8 degrees.

So, what happened this year in late March in DC temperature-wise was very unusual, although not unprecedented. However, for the month as a whole, the average high was 54.0, which places March 2011 in the middle historically, as the 72st warmest March out of 141 years. Further, the average (high and low average) temperature was 45.6, which places March 2011 as the 62nd warmest March. Precipitation was lower than anticipated yesterday, and so March 2011 precipitation at DCA finished at 4.40 inches, which places it 38th historically. All in all, not a particularly unusual month if you view it as a composite, but pretty interesting when you break it down between the first 22 days and the last nine days.

Out of curiosity, how did April 1906 fare?

[RodneyS]

Out of curiosity, how did April 1906 fare?

It warmed up dramatically. March 1906 maximum temperatures (44.0) were the third coldest ever in DC, and March 1906 average temperatures (37.6) were the sixth coldest ever. However, April 1906 maximum temperatures (66.5) were the 45th warmest, and April 1906 average temperatures (55.5) were the 61st warmest. The 22.5 degree maximum temperature warm-up was the third greatest ever between March and April, and the 17.9 degree average temperature warm-up was the seventh greatest ever. March 1906 ended with a high temperature of only 45 degrees, but high temperatures during the first four days of April 1906 were 51, 55, 58, and 73, respectively. Also, it's interesting to note that March 1906 precipitation was comparable to March 2011 (4.62 inches vs. 4.40 inches). April 1906 had a pretty much average precipitation of 3.03 inches. So, we'll see if April 2011 is similar to April 1906.

[WVclimo]

It warmed up dramatically. March 1906 maximum temperatures (44.0) were the third coldest ever in DC, and March 1906 average temperatures (37.6) were the sixth coldest ever. However, April 1906 maximum temperatures (66.5) were the 45th warmest, and April 1906 average temperatures (55.5) were the 61st warmest. The 22.5 degree maximum temperature warm-up was the third greatest ever between March and April, and the 17.9 degree average temperature warm-up was the seventh greatest ever. March 1906 ended with a high temperature of only 45 degrees, but high temperatures during the first four days of April 1906 were 51, 55, 58, and 73, respectively. Also, it's interesting to note that March 1906 precipitation was comparable to March 2011 (4.62 inches vs. 4.40 inches). April 1906 had a pretty much average precipitation of 3.03 inches. So, we'll see if April 2011 is similar to April 1906.

Good stuff. Thanks for the info.

[Riptide]

Man, the 12z GFS really went to town with the severe weather next Tuesday.....

[Ian]

Man, the 12z GFS really went to town with the severe weather next Tuesday.....

looks like it moved more toward the euro which implies probably not much svr threat tuesday itself. the timing is a bit off with the frontal passage overnight mon or early a.m. tues. monday could be the day i guess..

[Riptide]

looks like it moved more toward the euro which implies probably not much svr threat tuesday itself. the timing is a bit off with the frontal passage overnight mon or early a.m. tues. monday could be the day i guess..

It probably looks warmer than it actually is? 564+ heights but you need to reach that maximum and factor in cloud cover. The low pressure is also distant but the squall line stretches all the way down into Florida.