Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 How is the smart model initialized? Does it actually model physics like, say, some version of the WRF or GFS? Or does it just take some kind of weighted mean of an existing model(s) and its severe weather related outputs, like deep shear, CAPE, helicity, CINH. Like a computerized version of a person looking at SPC RUC based conditions, (SREFs?) forecast soundings, etc. Was it written from scratch, or is it based off of available model code. Forgive my ignorance, I haven't modeled anything since college on a computer, and those were oilfield related using Fortran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 How far out does the Smart Model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hello all, per request and good suggestions, I wanted to explain how my model output works and how the graphics I post are built for future reference. To Start I ingest the NAM, GFS, WRF text data from Surface to 300mb. I take the current run and the previous run. Then it grabs the 24 history of surface observations, upper air (if available) and some PIREPS and ArtyMET. Then I compare the actual observed data with the previous and current model output to identify trends and how much each surface parameter was off. For example if the NAM was going for winds 120 at 8 knots but the observed wind was 190 at 13 kts. The model was off by -60 degrees and -5 knots. I do this comparison for Winds, Temperature, Clouds, Visibility, precipitation amounts, altimeter, present weather. Then based off of performance and establishing overall under or over forecasting of each parameter, I take that value and apply it to the current model run and then output the data into a spreadsheet, which is broken down hourly. These calculations take place every hour as I get new surface observation, Upper Air, and PIREPS/Artymet. So the output changes hourly, I only post when significant changes occur. As for the severe weather graphics and snowfall forecast. I use the same NAM, GFS, WRF, and RUC SVR, current observation trends for temps, dew point and pressure, and Pireps. It compares 28 environmental indicies and synoptic conditions, and each is valued differents, and produces a threat value, with 1.00 meaning that ll the indicies and synoptic conditions are met for a significant Tornado threat. This is updated hourly as surface conditions changes and as weather reports come in. The graphical map outlines areas in Green (1-1.5" Hail, 50-60kts, F1 Tornado threat) that show at .3 or higher value, Orange (1.5-2", 60-75kts, F2 Tornado Threat) for .5 or higher, .7 or higher for Red( 2-3" Hail, 75-85kts, F3/F4 Tornado Threat, and .9 for Purple. (3"+ Hail, 85kts+, F5/F6 Tornado Threat). Every 10 days I compare how the values related to what the storm reports showed to fine tune the numbers. As for the snowfall predictions it takes the average temperature and give a best guess of snowfall ratio and adds up the 24 hour precip total and inputs the snowfall ration to give the snow amounts you see on the .pdf's. This is a general scope of what it does, any specific questions please let me know, still have plenty of work left to do on it. And would love any additional guidance or performance critique. Thx. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 ^ Thx Are PIREPs public domain? I got the distinct impression ACARS data isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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