Jim Martin Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 494 WWUS20 KWNS 292018 SEL2 SPC WW 292018 LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-300300- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 72 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 320 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LA/MS. VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SEVERE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020. ...GUYER/HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I've been watching that area since about 2 pm CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 428 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT * AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER ST. JAMES PARISH...OR 9 MILES WEST OF RESERVE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... RURAL ST. JAMES PARISH AT 440 PM CDT RURAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH AT 440 PM CDT Stolen from MSP on Texas/Mexico thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 A nice slow moving, right turning tornado warned supercell has been truckin' along WNW of New Orleans having decent rotation at times and ingesting in little cells to it south and having no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Making a beeline for New Orleans. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 515 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011 LAC089-095-292230- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-110329T2230Z/ ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST LA-ST. CHARLES LA- 515 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES AND CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISHES... AT 511 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RESERVE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LAPLACE BY 520 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED REPORTED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. POWER WAS REPORTED OUT IN RESERVE BY A NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 72... VALID 292347Z - 300145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 72 CONTINUES. A SYNOPTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DRAPED FROM NEAR LCH TO JUST NORTH OF BTR TO 25 MILES SSE OF ASD. THIS FEATURE IS LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER SERN LA. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE 23Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NUDGED INTO SRN MS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...A SECONDARY/MESOSCALE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM S-CNTRL INTO SERN MS...AND IS FOLLOWED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED. MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /52 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PER VWP AT LIX/ IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MATERIALIZES EAST OF A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS WW72 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. THE CONVECTION COULD ALSO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS...WITH AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS. ..COHEN.. 03/29/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 806 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011 LAC075-087-300115- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110330T0115Z/ ST. BERNARD LA-PLAQUEMINES LA- 806 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISHES... AT 802 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PLAQUEMINES PARISH...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 pretty cool radar loop of that guy as you can see the last meso occlude and the RFD/gust front surge out and completely choke it off and it weakens quickly. It also had a pretty nice BWER in the notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 HOLY SH*T 0732 PM TSTM WND GST BELLE CHASSE 29.85N 90.00W 03/29/2011 M100 MPH PLAQUEMINES LA EMERGENCY MNGR PARISH GOVERNMENT OFFICE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 100 MPH AT THE END OF AVENUE G AND MAIN STREET NEAR PLAQUIMINES PRIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just ran 01Z Severe Weather Threat Analysis across the S. TX through S. MS area. Showing the highest threat for severe weather over the Lafayette, LA/Beaumont, TX/New Orleans to Baton Rouge, LA. Current surface CAPE's around 1400-1700(j/kg), EHI are in that favorable zone of 1.2 to 1.7 and 0-3KM SRH around 220. So a good amount of shear and potential for F2 type Tornadoes across this area. Outside of this, winds around 50kts and hail around 1" are possible. City specific analysis is uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 HOLY SH*T 0732 PM TSTM WND GST BELLE CHASSE 29.85N 90.00W 03/29/2011 M100 MPH PLAQUEMINES LA EMERGENCY MNGR PARISH GOVERNMENT OFFICE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 100 MPH AT THE END OF AVENUE G AND MAIN STREET NEAR PLAQUIMINES PRIDE. Wow thats pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 major damaged report from Cantore twitter. 2 Walmart Stores reporting MAJOR damage tonight in LA. One in Belle Chasse, LA and the other near Harvey, LA #LAwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 smart model whiffed on the rio grande action...nasty supercell out there tonight Just ran 01Z Severe Weather Threat Analysis across the S. TX through S. MS area. Showing the highest threat for severe weather over the Lafayette, LA/Beaumont, TX/New Orleans to Baton Rouge, LA. Current surface CAPE's around 1400-1700(j/kg), EHI are in that favorable zone of 1.2 to 1.7 and 0-3KM SRH around 220. So a good amount of shear and potential for F2 type Tornadoes across this area. Outside of this, winds around 50kts and hail around 1" are possible. City specific analysis is uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 smart model whiffed on the rio grande action...nasty supercell out there tonight It wasn't that great of a storm out there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 From NOLA.com http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2011/03/strong_thunderstorms_bring_pro.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 From NOLA.com http://www.nola.com/..._bring_pro.html Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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