A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Can someone explain to me why we don't take the 18z runs as seriously as the 12z and 00z ones? Because they've shown some ridiculously extreme solutions this winter and usually are quite different from the 12z and 0z runs.... they've actually had more of a cold bias this winter.... so having the 18z GFS show this kind of solution is a bit weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 KING FTW, you always used to say this, Joe. Interesting that the 12z ECM ENS were so far offshore given how tight the GFS wants to track this. Even 30 miles east is good for the 18z run. gfs is garbage. I would bet the house the king will have it right, long ways to go, just having a little 18z gfs fun with some, but its truly garbage.... this may be the last chance for snow for 90% of us, so I am cheering everyone on. The only thing that was concerning was the 700 track, but that just shows how bad the gfs can be at times, at 12z it was a perfect track to crush the ct coast..........King King King King King King King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 gfs is garbage. I would bet the house the king will have it right, long ways to go, just having a little 18z gfs fun with some, but its truly garbage.... this may be the last chance for snow for 90% of us, so I am cheering everyone on. The only thing that was concerning was the 700 track, but that just shows how bad the gfs can be at times, at 12z it was a perfect track to crush the ct coast..........King King King King King King King The 18z breaks continuity more often than not with the 12z and 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Looks like you've got a little more than I do here, probably owing to your slightly higher latitude. My lawn is totally bare here at 1150' in Lenox save for some piles in the shady areas, but there are some scattered patches in the woods where it is several inches deep and the ponds are still ice covered (not safely so). I was on MA-116 in Savoy at 2K earlier today and there's still a solid 8-12" snowpack up there that is shiny and frozen solid. It may be even deeper in the woods away from the road. Heck, they're still ice fishing there as I was driving by a pond near the Savoy/Plainfield line. Great area for snow and cold. By the time I was in Northampton, not a drop of snow with buds on the trees and temps in the mid-40s (no ice on the ponds either). It was 28 at 2K. High was about 37 with off and on upslope flurries here all afternoon. 12Z Euro slams this areas with major deformation, comma head snows. Verbatim we should do very well. Hi Mitch, We had some nice flurry action with big dandelion fluff type flakes throughout the day @ 2k. Stayed below freezing as well. What's your take on the snow outlook here? Ice fishing continues on quite a few ponds/lakes here. Starts to get sketchy now as springs can scour the ice out from underneath with no way of knowing when viewed from above. Some meathead usually puts his truck through the ice in March. Last year I think it was on Goose pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 River time?? wow he's horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I would lol if this wound up being my biggest storm in several years Of course I would need 17" but it could happen. It could also destroy my Wachusett goal if it is all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Watch the 18z ensembles be 50 miles se of the BM..lol. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 [/b] Hi Mitch, We had some nice flurry action with big dandelion fluff type flakes throughout the day @ 2k. Stayed below freezing as well. What's your take on the snow outlook here? Ice fishing continues on quite a few ponds/lakes here. Starts to get sketchy now as springs can scour the ice out from underneath with no way of knowing when viewed from above. Some meathead usually puts his truck through the ice in March. Last year I think it was on Goose pond. Snow dream ftw? What is your take on this? Enjoy your trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 BOX says warmth and rain for you Although, the office that forecasts for me says it may well be snow. NEXT STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MOST OF OUR AREA REMAINING IN THE COLD AIR. STILL WAY TO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE...BUT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SNOWFALL EVENT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 DT just rolled out his prelim thoughts. And yes he's calling it a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Watch the 18z ensembles be 50 miles se of the BM..lol. They actually are!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Terrible run for the CP...Berks/Litchfield cty/N ORH hills/Monads get destroyed though. Mainly rain for most of us on the GFS flipping to snow. Berkshires gets slammed. Tell me more.lol 12+"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Its amazing how far E the 18z GFS ensemble mean is after that OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 DT just rolled out his prelim thoughts. And yes he's calling it a HECS. hm. ok, for who and how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Snow dream ftw? What is your take on this? Enjoy your trip! Big Snow BOMB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Its amazing how far E the 18z GFS ensemble mean is after that OP run. Damn, what in the hell is going on? just about 48 hours till start time here, or should I say "possible" start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 DT just rolled out his prelim thoughts. And yes he's calling it a HECS. According to John, the 18z GFS ensembles aren't just farther east than the OP, they're also much flatter than the 12z.... looks like the 18z GFS up to its usual tricks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 hm. ok, for who and how much? Put the shorts and Tevas away Joe. Time to shovel snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Big Snow BOMB. Pete when are you leaving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Its amazing how far E the 18z GFS ensemble mean is after that OP run. 18z up to its usual tricks no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 hm. ok, for who and how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Put the shorts and Tevas away Joe. Time to shovel snow. Tevas suck. flips always and forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Thanks Bob, looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 DT just rocked my world... Of course he blew chunks last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I luv DT..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Tevas suck. flips always and forever. Dodging reality. Spring cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I love it people worried about supression, and now harping the rain scenario. relax til tonight, or better yet tomorrow night. or better yet Friday when it's happening. It'll be April after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Dodging reality. Spring cancel. As a Bills fan, I understand you know all about dodging reality, but I asked you before when you were leaving for AK, are you going to miss the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Its amazing how far E the 18z GFS ensemble mean is after that OP run. Good sign. Also a good sign that some of our favorites like the GGEM or UKMet aren't wound up over BGM or HPN lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Good sign. Also a good sign that some of our favorites like the GGEM or UKMet aren't wound up over BGM or HPN lol Yeah I'd be a little more nervous if we had a Hudson Valley cutter or two on our favorite amped up models. Even though its the nogaps, I also like that its hitting ACK right now...that's about where you want it at this time range. The consensus of the models is in a good spot right now. We just need it to actually track there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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