snowNH Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The precip shield is really compact. Reminds me a bit of 1/12 Yeah... I think Anyone North of the pike should feel really good that they will get a 6"+ snowstorm out of this one. GFS is now the western outlier with the Euro sitting perfect and the NAM out well east. GFS and NAM negotiation calls for a euro track which is good. Also, GFS sucks with dynamics (bombing lows) so its thermal profile is going to be terrible with this one. We'll have to rely on the NAM for a good thermal output. I know its not 1/12 or boxing day, but remember how that trended colder and colder every run in because of the dynamics. The low crossed the cape and plymouth/bos was snowing. We could see a similar situation here. Whats good is that GFS is hammering us with wrap around snows. At that track the dry slot would probably be from ORH to MHT points east, but wrap around could save us. Lets hope the trend west stops here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hopefully we can get some good qpf out here. Snow disappearing quickly now. 36.8/17 Looks like you've got a little more than I do here, probably owing to your slightly higher latitude. My lawn is totally bare here at 1150' in Lenox save for some piles in the shady areas, but there are some scattered patches in the woods where it is several inches deep and the ponds are still ice covered (not safely so). I was on MA-116 in Savoy at 2K earlier today and there's still a solid 8-12" snowpack up there that is shiny and frozen solid. It may be even deeper in the woods away from the road. Heck, they're still ice fishing there as I was driving by a pond near the Savoy/Plainfield line. Great area for snow and cold. By the time I was in Northampton, not a drop of snow with buds on the trees and temps in the mid-40s (no ice on the ponds either). It was 28 at 2K. High was about 37 with off and on upslope flurries here all afternoon. 12Z Euro slams this areas with major deformation, comma head snows. Verbatim we should do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You're ex was dumb? Your Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That is just a massive omega bomb for a while there...I could go about 1 tick cooler to feel better, but man, that is a ton of precip. This run looks like 14-15'' of omega bomb cement here and in N ORH. I'd die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Anyone that is smart would toss this run like you tossed the girls promdress and brasierre on prom night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 http://cmos.metapres...27349416635502/ Thanks! I can only access the abstract, but here's a relevant excerpt: Radiosonde and aircraft data combined are the main contributors to the skill of short-range forecasts over North America. However, as the effect of satellite observations over the North Pacific Ocean moves downstream over the continent, their impact on forecasts becomes dominant for forecast lengths longer than 36 h over western North America, and longer than 72 h over the eastern part of the continent. And interestingly, data was collected January-February 2007... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What a crush job here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think we still have time to pull a CT River Valley track out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think we still have time to pull a CT River Valley track out of this. Why in the sam hell would you ever post that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 GFS is a regular Ash annihilator, Oak obliterator, Pine pulverizer, Spruce splinter, Sycamore slaughterer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Why in the sam hell would you ever post that? To keep everyone on their toes. We aren't a lock yet to get hammered. I think we're looking pretty good, but there's still time left for bad things to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Why in the sam hell would you ever post that? So your brainwashing doesn't lead to a mass weenie suicide. Being realistic ... I know it's a strange concept for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 To keep everyone on their toes. We aren't a lock yet to get hammered. I think we're looking pretty good, but there's still time left for bad things to happen. Careful, you might cause a few lives to be lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 To keep everyone on their toes. We aren't a lock yet to get hammered. I think we're looking pretty good, but there's still time left for bad things to happen. With the kicker upstream I just don't see how this thing can come much farther west than the BM... That argues for this to remain an offshore track..I still think a whiff is more likely than a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So your brainwashing doesn't lead to a mass weenie suicide. Being realistic ... I know it's a strange concept for ya What are the hippies and gypsies living on the houseboats down by the river saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 On the opposite end of the 18z guidance...we have the NOGAPS giving congrats to ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Nice SWFE for the NNE peeps early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Nice SWFE for the NNE peeps early next week. BOX says warmth and rain for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 With the kicker upstream I just don't see how this thing can come much farther west than the BM... That argues for this to remain an offshore track..I still think a whiff is more likely than a rainer Agree 100%, plus we still have some confluence maintained to our north. I think a whiff and a rainer are equally UNlikely. Completely serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 garbage in garbage out the only thing that matters is the KING, another 6-7 hrs for the die hards and many questions will be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 LOL BOS has an isothermal layer up to almost 700mb at 12z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 garbage in garbage out the only thing that matters is the KING, another 6-7 hrs for the die hards and many questions will be answered. KING FTW, you always used to say this, Joe. Interesting that the 12z ECM ENS were so far offshore given how tight the GFS wants to track this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 BOX says warmth and rain for you lol ... such a hater. It's April, it wouldn't concern me if it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 garbage in garbage out the only thing that matters is the KING, another 6-7 hrs for the die hards and many questions will be answered. Even 30 miles east is good for the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 garbage in garbage out the only thing that matters is the KING, another 6-7 hrs for the die hards and many questions will be answered. I have to say, I really do like where the EC ensemble mean sits right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I have to say, I really do like where the EC ensemble mean sits right now. Watch the 18z ensembles be 50 miles se of the BM..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 To keep everyone on their toes. We aren't a lock yet to get hammered. I think we're looking pretty good, but there's still time left for bad things to happen. Yeah... they're the 18z runs, so take them with a huge grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I have to say, I really do like where the EC ensemble mean sits right now. They've been the most accurate (more than the OP) outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Can someone explain to me why we don't take the 18z runs as seriously as the 12z and 00z ones? Yeah... they're the 18z runs, so take them with a huge grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Watch the 18z ensembles be 50 miles se of the BM..lol. River time?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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