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Tulip Trouncer Threat III - April Fool's Joke


Baroclinic Zone

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My expectation is 0.4".

We will see. Too early for your area one way or the other. 18z upper air analysis would tend to indicate both models were a little underdone with heights up this way but more importantly that the nam was maybe too strong with the kicker.

The models haven't demonstrated the ability to be accurate +/-50 miles at this range in the last 30 days. You're within the swing in that regard. I'm not, which is fine by me.

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That was said yesterday at 18z... if someone keeps saying it before each run, its bound to happen eventually, lol.

I'm still astounded at how lack-luster the meso-scale models are... the AWF and NMM are pretty much non-events. Even the ETA and NAM aren't impressive though they do bring some snows to eastern area... the lift is pretty weak though so it may just be a cold light rain.

If any of these solutions happen it would be an epic fail for the global models.

hiresw_p03_045m.gif

Normally we would say it's a feedback issue at this point. The thing is just when you think the NAM is on a streak it flops. Maybe it is about to knock it out of the park but I can't say there are any serious signs of that right now. The meso models have at time done very well but have been brutal at other times.

The ruc is pretty intense/far north with round one but aloft it's on par more with the gfs than the nam.

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