Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Tulip Trouncer Threat III - April Fool's Joke


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Care to elaborate, Scott...

You're near the climatological cool point in the water temps offshore and low level temps will be in the L to M 30s. So not much of a temp gradient i.e. weaker sfc frontogenesis along the coastal fronts. It won't be like those Dec/Jan events with 15-20F swings along the boundary.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What exactly is omega....is it lift in the atmosphere...

From NOAA:

Omega A term used to describe vertical motion in the atmosphere. The "omega equation" used in numerical weather models is composed of two terms, the "differential vorticity advection" term and the "thickness advection" term. Put more simply, omega is determined by the amount of spin (or large scale rotation) and warm (or cold) advection present in the atmosphere. On a weather forecast chart, high values of omega (or a strong omega field) relate to upward vertical motion (UVV) in the atmosphere. If this upward vertical motion is strong enough and in a sufficiently moist airmass, precipitation results.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Care to elaborate, Scott...

Well we just don't have the temp gradients like we would in January. Perhaps it's something like 30-31 on the cold side of the CF and upper 30s on the warm side of the CF. However, convergence will force the air up, so that principle is there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes. We call it omega, because it's represented in equations as the Greek letter omega.

You're near the climatological cool point in the water temps offshore and low level temps will be in the L to M 30s. So not much of a temp gradient i.e. weaker sfc frontogenesis along the coastal fronts. It won't be like those Dec/Jan events with 15-20F swings along the boundary.

What I figured on both accounts; thx.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah I was talking about coast and valleys

3/4 -SN sucks in midday...I agree on that stuff. We had that in the Mar 21 event and it cost us a chance to get more. We ended up with a bit over 2" but it probably could have been 4" if we actually snowed a bit harder or if it was at night.

Hopefully that is not an issue in this storm anyway....I'd think we should be able to generate a pretty large area of heavy snow based on the dynamics at play here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What exactly is omega....is it lift in the atmosphere...

To add to what others have said...in a QG sense the main players are positive differential vorticity advection (i.e. approaching H5 vortmax) and mid-level WAA (850mb or so) will lead to the strongest mid-level omega.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

To add to what others have said...in a QG sense the main players are positive differential vorticity advection (i.e. approaching H5 vortmax) and mid-level WAA (850mb or so) will lead to the strongest mid-level omega.

Am I correct in assuming that positive differential advection is more likely to occur on the back side of a system and mid level WAA is more likely to be found on the front end...ie warm conveyor belt...

The 2nd question I'm sure of, so the main issue is with regard to the 1st question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Am I correct in assuming that positive differential advection is more likely to occur on the back side of a system and mid level WAA is more likely to be found on the front end...ie warm conveyor belt...

The 2nd question I'm sure of, so the main issue is with regard to the 1st question.

When you have a deep bombing low the 2 are often co-located

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3/4 -SN sucks in midday...I agree on that stuff. We had that in the Mar 21 event and it cost us a chance to get more. We ended up with a bit over 2" but it probably could have been 4" if we actually snowed a bit harder or if it was at night.

Hopefully that is not an issue in this storm anyway....I'd think we should be able to generate a pretty large area of heavy snow based on the dynamics at play here.

Yeah sometimes in these storms you see a more concentrated area of jackpot totals under the best forcing while areas on the outskirts that in the dead of winter can nickel and dime their way to a sizable snowstorm get screwed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kevin's ex girlfriend

lmaosmiley.gif

Am I correct in assuming that positive differential advection is more likely to occur on the back side of a system and mid level WAA is more likely to be found on the front end...ie warm conveyor belt...

The 2nd question I'm sure of, so the main issue is with regard to the 1st question.

18Z GFS people...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yaakov / jconsor, is there a place we can find / could you post your data on the 72hr and 36-42hr model accuracy "hurdles" (that models face a "test" at 72 hours out as more data is sampled on west coast, and again at 36-42 hrs)? this was referenced somewhere earlier in this thread

i anticipate it will be quite timely tonight

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...