CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What exactly is omega....is it lift in the atmosphere... Yes. We call it omega, because it's represented in equations as the Greek letter omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Was just wondering when it ends. Friday or early Sat? Friday PM for you 9-11pm I would think. (Maybe even a couple of hours sooner). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Care to elaborate, Scott... You're near the climatological cool point in the water temps offshore and low level temps will be in the L to M 30s. So not much of a temp gradient i.e. weaker sfc frontogenesis along the coastal fronts. It won't be like those Dec/Jan events with 15-20F swings along the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 If you're snowing 2 or 3" an hour oh yeah you're going to blitz. But 1/2SM or 3/4SM won't cut it this time of year. id say persistent 1/2 mile can away from the usual warmspots (coast) and in the burbs 3/4 mile definteily not, i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What exactly is omega....is it lift in the atmosphere... From NOAA: Omega A term used to describe vertical motion in the atmosphere. The "omega equation" used in numerical weather models is composed of two terms, the "differential vorticity advection" term and the "thickness advection" term. Put more simply, omega is determined by the amount of spin (or large scale rotation) and warm (or cold) advection present in the atmosphere. On a weather forecast chart, high values of omega (or a strong omega field) relate to upward vertical motion (UVV) in the atmosphere. If this upward vertical motion is strong enough and in a sufficiently moist airmass, precipitation results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Was just wondering when it ends. Friday or early Sat? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD2LRROpph0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 id say persistent 1/2 mile can away from the usual warmspots (coast) and in the burbs 3/4 mile definteily not, i agree yeah I was talking about coast and valleys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Care to elaborate, Scott... Well we just don't have the temp gradients like we would in January. Perhaps it's something like 30-31 on the cold side of the CF and upper 30s on the warm side of the CF. However, convergence will force the air up, so that principle is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yes. We call it omega, because it's represented in equations as the Greek letter omega. You're near the climatological cool point in the water temps offshore and low level temps will be in the L to M 30s. So not much of a temp gradient i.e. weaker sfc frontogenesis along the coastal fronts. It won't be like those Dec/Jan events with 15-20F swings along the boundary. What I figured on both accounts; thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 yeah I was talking about coast and valleys 3/4 -SN sucks in midday...I agree on that stuff. We had that in the Mar 21 event and it cost us a chance to get more. We ended up with a bit over 2" but it probably could have been 4" if we actually snowed a bit harder or if it was at night. Hopefully that is not an issue in this storm anyway....I'd think we should be able to generate a pretty large area of heavy snow based on the dynamics at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What exactly is omega....is it lift in the atmosphere... To add to what others have said...in a QG sense the main players are positive differential vorticity advection (i.e. approaching H5 vortmax) and mid-level WAA (850mb or so) will lead to the strongest mid-level omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 To add to what others have said...in a QG sense the main players are positive differential vorticity advection (i.e. approaching H5 vortmax) and mid-level WAA (850mb or so) will lead to the strongest mid-level omega. Am I correct in assuming that positive differential advection is more likely to occur on the back side of a system and mid level WAA is more likely to be found on the front end...ie warm conveyor belt... The 2nd question I'm sure of, so the main issue is with regard to the 1st question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Am I correct in assuming that positive differential advection is more likely to occur on the back side of a system and mid level WAA is more likely to be found on the front end...ie warm conveyor belt... The 2nd question I'm sure of, so the main issue is with regard to the 1st question. When you have a deep bombing low the 2 are often co-located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What exactly is omega....is it lift in the atmosphere... Kevin's ex girlfriend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 3/4 -SN sucks in midday...I agree on that stuff. We had that in the Mar 21 event and it cost us a chance to get more. We ended up with a bit over 2" but it probably could have been 4" if we actually snowed a bit harder or if it was at night. Hopefully that is not an issue in this storm anyway....I'd think we should be able to generate a pretty large area of heavy snow based on the dynamics at play here. Yeah sometimes in these storms you see a more concentrated area of jackpot totals under the best forcing while areas on the outskirts that in the dead of winter can nickel and dime their way to a sizable snowstorm get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Kevin's ex girlfriend Dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Dumb Congrats on 105" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Kevin's ex girlfriend Am I correct in assuming that positive differential advection is more likely to occur on the back side of a system and mid level WAA is more likely to be found on the front end...ie warm conveyor belt... The 2nd question I'm sure of, so the main issue is with regard to the 1st question. 18Z GFS people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That trough looks a little sharper down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ct mets, Field and Dupriest very very very very conservative. "possible" Field> possible litchfield hill accumulations. Dupriest 40 rain/snow inland 44 at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Dumb Ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hopefully we can get some good qpf out here. Snow disappearing quickly now. 36.8/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I still think that we could all get royally screwed by this thing and the Poconos get crushed. Too early to get too excited... but I'm definitely paying attention to this one now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 First time ever that a thread went OT and was educational. I think omega is directly related to snow production in late march April in another sense due to radiation and thickness of cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Dumb You're ex was dumb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z GFS looks a bit toasty early on...0C line already up past NYC near the south coast by that point. It was down near ACY on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 yaakov / jconsor, is there a place we can find / could you post your data on the 72hr and 36-42hr model accuracy "hurdles" (that models face a "test" at 72 hours out as more data is sampled on west coast, and again at 36-42 hrs)? this was referenced somewhere earlier in this thread i anticipate it will be quite timely tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ouch 18z GFS is going to be a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z GFS is also faster.... raining hard pretty much everywhere south of the Mass Pike by 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ouch 18z GFS is going to be a torch Yes Sir As will and scooter have said from day one, they were afraid of rain over an OTS solution, south coast of ct all rain through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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