A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At this point it's not as much an east/west shift that concerns me it's being able to develop a strong cold conveyorbelt as the mid level lows close and deepen. The models are jogging east a touch but they're also slower in wrapping the system up. For CT/SE NY/NYC that's a big deal and a huge problem... once you get to ORH/GAY it's not as much of a problem. And those aren't my numbers that's just what the Euro tells me. I agree.... we've seen this trend on the models since yesterday where it develops later.... as opposed to the runs the other day which had it deepening further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd like the east movement to stop and maybe take a bit of a step back. I'm being greed. I admit it. 46.4/20. Dude, you're ground zero for the deformation band; that was in NYS and VT on prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd like the east movement to stop and maybe take a bit of a step back. I'm being greed. I admit it. 46.4/20. Congrats on a big snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 about the 32F hang up ... I've seen 6" fall in just 4 hours at 34F. It doesn't have to be ideal at the surface folks. This is what I was just arguing to DT on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 about the 32F hang up ... I've seen 6" fall in just 4 hours at 34F. It doesn't have to be ideal at the surface folks. The models often don't cool the sfc enough anyway in these late season events. It will try and show it staying 34-35F but in reality when you have 1/8 +SN, it pretty much just goes to 32F pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 We'll just have to agree to disagree you're making no sense to me. I didn't understand that. He was essentially saying that NYC could get more snow than HFD - outside the heavier QPF and lift the temperatures were colder and there could be more snow farther SW? How is that possible in April unless it's a cf passage event? Don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd like the east movement to stop and maybe take a bit of a step back. I'm being greed. I admit it. 46.4/20. Haha, me too. But its ok to be greedy this time of the year... never know when the next one will come along. Plus, I'd really like to completely fill this creek bed behind our office at 1,500ft. Right now there's only 8 feet of snow on the right wall of the creek bed, it would look a lot better at 10 feet, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is what I was just arguing to DT on FB. Obviously it's way too early to hand out congrats, but you never wavered, even when the GFS went to total crap. Heck, even Will was doubting it (who can blame him though.... everything lurched west yesterday.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd like the east movement to stop and maybe take a bit of a step back. I'm being greed. I admit it. 46.4/20. Your not being greedy, There won't be a lot of happy people if it ends out where the Nam is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The models often don't cool the sfc enough anyway in these late season events. It will try and show it staying 34-35F but in reality when you have 1/8 +SN, it pretty much just goes to 32F pretty quickly. I remember this in April 1996-- it was supposed to be around 33-34 and the heavy snow got it down to 31-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I didn't understand that. He was essentially saying that NYC could get more snow than HFD - outside the heavier QPF and lift the temperatures were colder and there could be more snow farther SW? How is that possible in April unless it's a cf passage event? Don't get it. No I wasn't saying that NYC would get more snow than Hartford. I was just saying that you can't rip forecasts from eastern locales like CT and apply them to the same latitude in NJ or SE NY, since the 850 line has a sharp NE-SW orientation. For example Caldwell NJ (CDW) gets much more QPF as snow than White Plains NY (HPN) even though they are at the same latitude. Both do rip for a while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro tracks the D7 storm through BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Obviously it's way too early to hand out congrats, but you never wavered, even when the GFS went to total crap. Heck, even Will was doubting it (who can blame him though.... everything lurched west yesterday.) I was nervous, but I just stuck to the idea that these types of top-end winters don't end this quickly. I had my last sig snowfall in 3rd week of Feb....I knew it couldn't be over, yet. We'll see...not verified, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Dude, you're ground zero for the deformation band; that was in NYS and VT on prior runs. Thanks, Ray--I'll shut up then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow dude you're in full out troll mode. I made a coherent post that argued your point with facts and you reply with an incidental mis-statement which was obvious what I meant meaning that the NAO was becoming less negative to neutral which is a strong sign for an east coast storm. Mods? you blame me for your post that was an obvious weenie error? you can't be serious ..the irony is interesting considering the point I was making and you were responding to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Haha, me too. But its ok to be greedy this time of the year... never know when the next one will come along. Plus, I'd really like to completely fill this creek bed behind our office at 1,500ft. Right now there's only 8 feet of snow on the right wall of the creek bed, it would look a lot better at 10 feet, haha. Is that Pete hiding behind the trees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is what I was just arguing to DT on FB. What is that jackass saying? since he blocked me on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 No I wasn't saying that NYC would get more snow than Hartford. I was just saying that you can't rip forecasts from eastern locales like CT and apply them to the same latitude in NJ or SE NY, since the 850 line has a sharp NE-SW orientation. For example Caldwell NJ (CDW) gets much more QPF as snow than White Plains NY (HPN) even though they are at the same latitude. Both do rip for a while though. I agree in principle with what you're saying but (as Im sure you realize), Hartford isn't in Coastal CT..... if you draw a latitudinal line straight east from the Bronx (for example) you'll end up somewhere on the North Shore of LI..... if you draw a line straight east from Peekskill, you'll be in Coastal Southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Doe the Euro still torch us next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I was nervous, but I just stuck to the idea that these types of top-end winters don't end this quickly. I had my last sig snowfall in 3rd week of Feb....I knew it couldn't be over, yet. We'll see...not verified, yet. My 80.1" will be knocking at you 89.5"'s backdoor after this You might be getting 7"+ so I don't think I will catch you... but it might be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What did the Euro end up showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What is that jackass saying? since he blocked me on FB He's arguing that Boston is still screwed on the EURO because of the April sun. I countered with the point regarding omega compensating.....I'd go 3-6" in Boston proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is what I was just arguing to DT on FB. Did you see the asswipe's comment on my map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I agree in principle with what you're saying but (as Im sure you realize), Hartford isn't in Coastal CT..... if you draw a latitudinal line straight east from the Bronx (for example) you'll end up somewhere on the North Shore of LI..... if you draw a line straight east from Peekskill, you'll be in Coastal Southern CT. Yeah I don't think Hartford sees that much rain. I am just saying this storm could be a different story for someone in Middletown CT compared to someone in Peekskill NY (Westchester)....they're both at the same latitude but that surge of warmth at 850mb is really strong with the low centered south of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 My 80.1" will be knocking at you 89.5"'s backdoor after this You might be getting 7"+ so I don't think I will catch you... but it might be close I don't think it will be close...I'll be near 100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 No I wasn't saying that NYC would get more snow than Hartford. I was just saying that you can't rip forecasts from eastern locales like CT and apply them to the same latitude in NJ or SE NY, since the 850 line has a sharp NE-SW orientation. For example Caldwell NJ (CDW) gets much more QPF as snow than White Plains NY (HPN) even though they are at the same latitude. Both do rip for a while though. I think with enough experience you can, and that is what you are missing....once you have been doing this for 15-20 years you know when the extrapolations make sense and then when there are warning flags not to..in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah I don't think Hartford sees that much rain. I am just saying this storm could be a different story for someone in Middletown CT compared to someone in Peekskill NY (Westchester)....they're both at the same latitude but that surge of warmth at 850mb is really strong with the low centered south of CT. Dude we get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Did you see the asswipe's comment on my map? You know how abrasive he is...just his persona; if you would like to correspond with him, it's imperative that you overlook it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 He's arguing that Boston is still screwed on the EURO because of the April sun. I countered with the point regarding omega compensating.....I'd go 3-6" in Boston proper. Did he put out his 2nd call map yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 He's arguing that Boston is still screwed on the EURO because of the April sun. I countered with the point regarding omega compensating.....I'd go 3-6" in Boston proper. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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