moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Could be time to break out the back braces for some? Shovel an 2 inches at a time - max. Or just keep in mind that it's April and the sun will do it's work quickly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I still don't know what your point is? The call for NYC is pretty easy IMO as is the call for your backyard. I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to say "Well it's an easy call for NYC, even HFD is just a couple inches slop at this point" which makes the classic inference that Hartford is a colder clime than NYC metro and thus the latter would consequently get less. The whole storm is way colder to the west, like Dec 2000 or 2/25/10, so you have to take that into account...Greenwich could get more than Hartford in this case...12z ECM definitely puts some life into those that previously gave up in SW CT/SE NY/NYC etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Congrats to the interior of ct and mass outside the cape!!!! :snowman: :snowman: Still think 3.5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Negative NAO can drop to neutral. classic weenie phrase, iconic ;D How's your early spring call working out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 <br />Can someone post total QPF from the Euro, interested in southern ME.<br /><br /><br /><br />You're close to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 How's your early spring call working out? Winter ended in Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Or this could just happen like the meso-scale models show... absolutely nada. This is 6z Friday on the 12z NMM from NCEP's page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to say "Well it's an easy call for NYC, even HFD is just a couple inches slop at this point" which makes the classic inference that Hartford is a colder clime than NYC metro and thus the latter would consequently get less. The whole storm is way colder to the west, like Dec 2000 or 2/25/10, so you have to take that into account...Greenwich could get more than Hartford in this case...12z ECM definitely puts some life into those that previously gave up in SW CT/SE NY/NYC etc. 50 miles from being a significant event is a really close call.... let's see if this trends further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Zeus might owe someone a 6 pack... it will be close in Waltham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to say "Well it's an easy call for NYC, even HFD is just a couple inches slop at this point" which makes the classic inference that Hartford is a colder clime than NYC metro and thus the latter would consequently get less. The whole storm is way colder to the west, like Dec 2000 or 2/25/10, so you have to take that into account...Greenwich could get more than Hartford in this case...12z ECM definitely puts some life into those that previously gave up in SW CT/SE NY/NYC etc. NYC is not colder than Hartford. Maybe they are colder than Groton CT at 48h. HFD is like 33-34F at the sfc at 12z while NYC is probably upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah Euro probably starts it around midnight but I won't be shocked if there's a few hours of weenie snow before that time...models have been showing some lighter qpf extending well ahead of the main show. Heaviest looks between about 06z and 15z. So actually it's about a 75% nighttime snowfall..that is perfect timing dude.. Perfect to max out amounts.. Things are setting up ideally it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Watch that -NAO dropping to neutral, it could help the weenie trendz Wow dude you're in full out troll mode. I made a coherent post that argued your point with facts and you reply with an incidental mis-statement which was obvious what I meant meaning that the NAO was becoming less negative to neutral which is a strong sign for an east coast storm. Mods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 We'll we still have several model runs to go through over the next several hours. Does anyone think the NWS will issue winter wx adv or winter storm warnings for interior SNE? I know we are still walking a fine line between a driving rainstorm and a late season heavy, wet snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Interesting set of runs with the Euro a 6-12 for the hills in my area. Reading Ryan I often wonder how it ever snows in Hartford in April, so much going against them. Tough spot but JMHO they do better than he thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NYC is not colder than Hartford. Maybe they are colder than Groton CT at 48h. HFD is like 33-34F at the sfc at 12z while NYC is probably upper 30s. I mean 850mb temps, looking at 48hrs. Looks like a warm surge into CT while NYC metro is in the CCB. I also wouldn't compare Hartford surface temps to NYC as that's just unfair given the heat island...I'd think the surface temp here and Hartford could be the same despite HFD being much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 No reason to think the east shift by all the globals at 0z wont continue. Someone said a 50 mile shift is all that's needed. At this point it's not as much an east/west shift that concerns me it's being able to develop a strong cold conveyorbelt as the mid level lows close and deepen. The models are jogging east a touch but they're also slower in wrapping the system up. For CT/SE NY/NYC that's a big deal and a huge problem... once you get to ORH/GAY it's not as much of a problem. And those aren't my numbers that's just what the Euro tells me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to say "Well it's an easy call for NYC, even HFD is just a couple inches slop at this point" which makes the classic inference that Hartford is a colder clime than NYC metro and thus the latter would consequently get less. The whole storm is way colder to the west, like Dec 2000 or 2/25/10, so you have to take that into account...Greenwich could get more than Hartford in this case...12z ECM definitely puts some life into those that previously gave up in SW CT/SE NY/NYC etc. We'll just have to agree to disagree you're making no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I mean 850mb temps, looking at 48hrs. Looks like a warm surge into CT while NYC metro is in the CCB. I also wouldn't compare Hartford surface temps to NYC as that's just unfair given the heat island...I'd think the surface temp here and Hartford could be the same despite HFD being much further north. The 0C line at 850mb at 48 hours is pretty much right over NYC, maybe just a tick SE. HFD is probably like -1 or -2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So actually it's about a 75% nighttime snowfall..that is perfect timing dude.. Perfect to max out amounts.. Things are setting up ideally it would appear. Timing has definitely improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The 0C line at 850mb at 48 hours is pretty much right over NYC, maybe just a tick SE. HFD is probably like -2C. Thanks, Will. Socks is rambling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That 10-14 call of Jeff's is looking mighty fine right about now. Yeah, I think that is a good call We are good to go verbatium for here on the Euro, Thats a real good track for snow, Now we need to hold it, We don't need any further trends east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Interesting set of runs with the Euro a 6-12 for the hills in my area. Reading Ryan I often wonder how it ever snows in Hartford in April, so much going against them. Tough spot but JMHO they do better than he thinks. HFD is not some snow pit in April. As I've said many times squeezing out 4 or 5" of slop is not exciting at all for me so I'm not all that excited. Unfortunately the possibility of a blockbuster in this area is exceptionally low now and I think the odds of little accumulation are just as good as a 2-4 or 3-5 kind of deal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks, Will. Socks is rambling here. Maybe he's got his socks pulled up over his eyes?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 50 miles from being a significant event is a really close call.... let's see if this trends further. I'd like the east movement to stop and maybe take a bit of a step back. I'm being greed. I admit it. 46.4/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The 0C line at 850mb at 48 hours is pretty much right over NYC, maybe just a tick SE. HFD is probably like -1 or -2C. All I'm saying is an equivalent latitude of eastern/central CT has warmer 850 temps than western CT/southeast NY. Hartford is fine for a big snow, we both agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Still think 3.5"... Yes. But like I said I hope you get pasted!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks, Will. Socks is rambling here. He might be using the crude plymouth state map which shows the 850 line much further NW than what I am staring at on WSI. Those maps have a low resolution and are often erroneous, so that might be where he is getting this weird idea of snow in NYC and rain in HFD, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 He might be using the crude plymouth state map which shows the 850 line much further NW than what I am staring at on WSI. Those maps have a low resolution and are often erroneous, so that might be where he is getting this weird idea of snow in NYC and rain in HFD, lol. Yeah I was using Plymouth, although even that keeps HFD all snow I think. Even on the WSI maps, it looks like somewhere like Norwich CT could see boatloads of rain while Danbury, at the same latitude, gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 about the 32F hang up ... I've seen 6" fall in just 4 hours at 34F. It doesn't have to be ideal at the surface folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 since waterbury, ct is in the hilly terrain with many parts of town 500-700ft above sea level will we see big snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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