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Tulip Trouncer Threat III - April Fool's Joke


Baroclinic Zone

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I still don't know what your point is? The call for NYC is pretty easy IMO as is the call for your backyard.

I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to say "Well it's an easy call for NYC, even HFD is just a couple inches slop at this point" which makes the classic inference that Hartford is a colder clime than NYC metro and thus the latter would consequently get less. The whole storm is way colder to the west, like Dec 2000 or 2/25/10, so you have to take that into account...Greenwich could get more than Hartford in this case...12z ECM definitely puts some life into those that previously gave up in SW CT/SE NY/NYC etc.

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I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to say "Well it's an easy call for NYC, even HFD is just a couple inches slop at this point" which makes the classic inference that Hartford is a colder clime than NYC metro and thus the latter would consequently get less. The whole storm is way colder to the west, like Dec 2000 or 2/25/10, so you have to take that into account...Greenwich could get more than Hartford in this case...12z ECM definitely puts some life into those that previously gave up in SW CT/SE NY/NYC etc.

50 miles from being a significant event is a really close call.... let's see if this trends further.

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I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to say "Well it's an easy call for NYC, even HFD is just a couple inches slop at this point" which makes the classic inference that Hartford is a colder clime than NYC metro and thus the latter would consequently get less. The whole storm is way colder to the west, like Dec 2000 or 2/25/10, so you have to take that into account...Greenwich could get more than Hartford in this case...12z ECM definitely puts some life into those that previously gave up in SW CT/SE NY/NYC etc.

NYC is not colder than Hartford. Maybe they are colder than Groton CT at 48h. HFD is like 33-34F at the sfc at 12z while NYC is probably upper 30s.

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Yeah Euro probably starts it around midnight but I won't be shocked if there's a few hours of weenie snow before that time...models have been showing some lighter qpf extending well ahead of the main show. Heaviest looks between about 06z and 15z.

So actually it's about a 75% nighttime snowfall..that is perfect timing dude.. Perfect to max out amounts.. Things are setting up ideally it would appear.

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Watch that -NAO dropping to neutral, it could help the weenie trendz

Wow dude you're in full out troll mode. I made a coherent post that argued your point with facts and you reply with an incidental mis-statement which was obvious what I meant meaning that the NAO was becoming less negative to neutral which is a strong sign for an east coast storm.

Mods?

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We'll we still have several model runs to go through over the next several hours. Does anyone think the NWS will issue winter wx adv or winter storm warnings for interior SNE? I know we are still walking a fine line between a driving rainstorm and a late season heavy, wet snowstorm.

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NYC is not colder than Hartford. Maybe they are colder than Groton CT at 48h. HFD is like 33-34F at the sfc at 12z while NYC is probably upper 30s.

I mean 850mb temps, looking at 48hrs. Looks like a warm surge into CT while NYC metro is in the CCB. I also wouldn't compare Hartford surface temps to NYC as that's just unfair given the heat island...I'd think the surface temp here and Hartford could be the same despite HFD being much further north.

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No reason to think the east shift by all the globals at 0z wont continue. Someone said a 50 mile shift is all that's needed.

At this point it's not as much an east/west shift that concerns me it's being able to develop a strong cold conveyorbelt as the mid level lows close and deepen. The models are jogging east a touch but they're also slower in wrapping the system up. For CT/SE NY/NYC that's a big deal and a huge problem... once you get to ORH/GAY it's not as much of a problem.

And those aren't my numbers that's just what the Euro tells me.

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I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to say "Well it's an easy call for NYC, even HFD is just a couple inches slop at this point" which makes the classic inference that Hartford is a colder clime than NYC metro and thus the latter would consequently get less. The whole storm is way colder to the west, like Dec 2000 or 2/25/10, so you have to take that into account...Greenwich could get more than Hartford in this case...12z ECM definitely puts some life into those that previously gave up in SW CT/SE NY/NYC etc.

We'll just have to agree to disagree you're making no sense to me.

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I mean 850mb temps, looking at 48hrs. Looks like a warm surge into CT while NYC metro is in the CCB. I also wouldn't compare Hartford surface temps to NYC as that's just unfair given the heat island...I'd think the surface temp here and Hartford could be the same despite HFD being much further north.

The 0C line at 850mb at 48 hours is pretty much right over NYC, maybe just a tick SE. HFD is probably like -1 or -2C.

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Interesting set of runs with the Euro a 6-12 for the hills in my area. Reading Ryan I often wonder how it ever snows in Hartford in April, so much going against them. Tough spot but JMHO they do better than he thinks.

HFD is not some snow pit in April. As I've said many times squeezing out 4 or 5" of slop is not exciting at all for me so I'm not all that excited. Unfortunately the possibility of a blockbuster in this area is exceptionally low now and I think the odds of little accumulation are just as good as a 2-4 or 3-5 kind of deal here.

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Thanks, Will. Socks is rambling here.

He might be using the crude plymouth state map which shows the 850 line much further NW than what I am staring at on WSI. Those maps have a low resolution and are often erroneous, so that might be where he is getting this weird idea of snow in NYC and rain in HFD, lol.

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He might be using the crude plymouth state map which shows the 850 line much further NW than what I am staring at on WSI. Those maps have a low resolution and are often erroneous, so that might be where he is getting this weird idea of snow in NYC and rain in HFD, lol.

Yeah I was using Plymouth, although even that keeps HFD all snow I think.

Even on the WSI maps, it looks like somewhere like Norwich CT could see boatloads of rain while Danbury, at the same latitude, gets hammered.

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