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Tulip Trouncer Threat III - April Fool's Joke


Baroclinic Zone

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Easy. No accumulation.

Even on the Euro I think Hartford is hard pressed to get more than a 2-4 of slop kind of deal.

It's not the same storm for Hartford though, the warmth is more intense further east. So at the same latitude you're much colder in NYC metro than the CT coastline. The 0C 850mb line runs on a NE-SW line...I wouldn't call for accumulations in NYC yet either, but I'm not surprised Upton went with a warning. Probably will be too warm for them because of the surface and low closing a bit late but you can't exactly be sure when you've got -1C 850s and a 988mb low to your SE.

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If this can bomb and move east with big vv's it could, esp if 850s can get to near -4C. I'd still expect a pretty wet snow.

I'd like to see the vortmax go a little more nuts as it passes near E LI 48-54h...but I guess beggars can't be choosers. Still plenty of time for this to wobble and vary in intensity. Euro does have sfc temps around 32F here at 18z on Friday which is impressive.

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I'd like to see the vortmax go a little more nuts as it passes near E LI 48-54h...but I guess beggars can't be choosers. Still plenty of time for this to wobble and vary in intensity. Euro does have sfc temps around 32F here at 18z on Friday which is impressive.

Yeah it tucks that down nicely..especially given how it loves to sometimes go nuts with temps during the daytime. That's a nice comma head hit for the Berks, despite MPM QPF fetish.

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Start time after midnight tomorrow night and ending late evening or night??? Sound good?

Yeah Euro probably starts it around midnight but I won't be shocked if there's a few hours of weenie snow before that time...models have been showing some lighter qpf extending well ahead of the main show. Heaviest looks between about 06z and 15z.

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It's not the same storm for Hartford though, the warmth is more intense further east. So at the same latitude you're much colder in NYC metro than the CT coastline. The 0C 850mb line runs on a NE-SW line...I wouldn't call for accumulations in NYC yet either, but I'm not surprised Upton went with a warning. Probably will be too warm for them because of the surface and low closing a bit late but you can't exactly be sure when you've got -1C 850s and a 988mb low to your SE.

I still don't know what your point is? The call for NYC is pretty easy IMO as is the call for your backyard.

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for MOST of those areas that it snows, with most falling in the daytime, it's likely too that most streets will just be wet....

Most of the qpf probably falls between about 06z and 15z. I don't think the majority will be in the daytime.

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Easy. No accumulation.

Even on the Euro I think Hartford is hard pressed to get more than a 2-4 of slop kind of deal.

No reason to think the east shift by all the globals at 0z wont continue. Someone said a 50 mile shift is all that's needed.

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