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Tulip Trouncer Threat III - April Fool's Joke


Baroclinic Zone

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My gut says snow-rain-snow there in NE CT...the rain part is the tough variable...how long does it switch to rain? Maybe we get lucky and have it SE enough that no rain is in the picture for you.

Thanks for your thoughts.

That would be a nice end to a rather dull mid-winter that of which followed an epic, early winter onslaught.

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Every little tick east is huge. It's not necessarily for temps in the lower levels, but it gets very close to tipping over, aloft. We want to get that 850 0C line off to the east, not overhead. I could see a few ticks east as well, but we better keep the dynamics because that is also trying all it can to not allow the warmth overtake us. Lift is key.

I think it also really pays to know local climo..in these marginal storms..we know who snows at 32.2 and who rains at 33.0...Not saying tt happens this time..but it goes a long long way.

Seeing the Ukie and GFS trickle east was huge today..and lends credence to the idea that the trend east some of us have been expecting is indeed starting to happen as models sense the 3rd s/w kicker.

I have a feeling many of us are going to end up happy with the final result

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Will and Scott are probably going to make fun of me for commenting on an event over D7 like this .... buuuuut, if those parametrics come together that way, you would be all snow - period, bank it. Done deal, with no exception. That's Meteorological correction talking.

By the way folks, this current storm kind of has that appeal for me where the core of the precipitaiton shield is blue at Intellicast's p-type, but the edges... say 20-50 miles in is cold green rain. Couldn't you see that as a possible outcome? And ... whom ever is in that core would be getting some big huge hammer aggregates with occasional thunder!

re: the D7 192hr GFS bible storm, I'm getting nervous about dryslot issues here in Boston metro...

(joke)

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We need about a 50 mile shift or a change in the intensity but congrats on announcing that you've given up. Agree that we are on the edge though.

We are living on the edge, but I wouldn't be shocked if we had a 5" paste bomb..esp just inland, based on the GFS soundings.

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One of the key differences on the GGEM vs. the 00z run is that the 700 mb and 850 mb lows trended about 50 miles east.

Wow, the GGEM is an absolute nail-biter for NYC suburbs as well. Both major cities are basically bisected by the 0C line...interesting to see it's that cold with the low well tucked into CT, showing the dynamics here.

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One of the key differences on the GGEM vs. the 00z run is that the 700 mb and 850 mb lows trended about 50 miles east.

It looks like the GEM wants to try to pass H7 a bit south of NYC compared to the GFS being farther north in the metro. That definitely implies a colder storm with the NW suburbs being on the cold side of the mid-level gradient. GEM also looks like it just thinks the GFS is too warm all around with the surface low being in a pretty similar spot. Hardcore nailbiter for NYC and BOS burbs.

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