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Tulip Trouncer Threat III - April Fool's Joke


Baroclinic Zone

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How is the 12z GFS looking for qpf up this way (northern VT)? Was the SE tick enough to take us out of the heavier amounts or will ratio improvement keep this a warning + event?

GGEM certainly looks nice for us.

All VT gets .75" or more with the Southern Greens getting 1.25" or so...All snow for everybody. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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I would hate to be a meteorologist in Poughkeepsie right now. You feel pretty safe calling for rain in NYC and snow in ALB, but that area could go either way, with one potential being 20" of dangerously heavy snow.

A tight call. The slight track shift of 20-30 miles either way makes a big difference for thousands of folks. Going to come down to "nowcasting"

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That gives me 6 inches. And we're not done trending east yet. Looks like some major power problems..and maybe no Uconn game for me Saturday if power isn't back on

Looks like 6" is only confined to N Windham county and maybe Union on that map...your closer to 4".

But agreed on the 2nd part, we're probably not trending.

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Looks like 6" is only confined to N Windham county and maybe Union on that map...your closer to 4".

But agreed on the 2nd part, we're probably not trending.

I 'm doubtful that area in Windham CTY lower in elev than me and farther east would get more than my area. I know we're just talking verbatim what that clown map says..but if you factor in climate and climatology it doesn't add up.

Glad to hear you think this thing is still gonna go east. I'd bet the Euro is a major hit..esp with Ukie heading east..though weaker

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How is this going to play out for the most part,

snow - rain - snow?

snow -rain?

etc.

My gut says snow-rain-snow there in NE CT...the rain part is the tough variable...how long does it switch to rain? Maybe we get lucky and have it SE enough that no rain is in the picture for you.

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I 'm doubtful that area in Windham CTY lower in elev than me and farther east would get more than my area. I know we're just talking verbatim what that clown map says..but if you factor in climate and climatology it doesn't add up.

Glad to hear you think this thing is still gonna go east. I'd bet the Euro is a major hit..esp with Ukie heading east..though weaker

Every little tick east is huge. It's not necessarily for temps in the lower levels, but it gets very close to tipping over, aloft. We want to get that 850 0C line off to the east, not overhead. I could see a few ticks east as well, but we better keep the dynamics because that is also trying all it can to not allow the warmth overtake us. Lift is key.

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