dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Reliable sources tell me at least 9". I want to see what the good Doc has to say. Your first guess totals (10-14) seem like a nice range. Yeah, Hold off until the doc speaks, I would like to see this bomb a little later for us here, But i think it holds or goes slight SE like the rest did, But i think i am good with what i have right now, I will lock it up after tonights runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I don't think the GFS verbatim is as good for you as you think it is. That said there certainly is room for this to wiggle east. It gives me about 3" of QPF and about 1\3 of it is a 33* blue-bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I don't think the GFS verbatim is as good for you as you think it is. That said there certainly is room for this to wiggle east. yoooohoooooo I know you see my posts what are you thinking for NW corner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 WCB snows can and have produced huge totals in April. They are generally rarer because in April you usually do not have the wiggle room to get much WAA and still be cold enough for snow in the mid-levels....however, in this particular setup we do have some wiggle room for that. Not much, but enough to get a monster omega WCB thump. It might not pan out that way and we see something different 2 days from now, but as modeled, I think its plausible. The April 1987 bomb that dumped 17" here (and like 9-10" at your place) was almost totally WCB with the 700 low back in NY State. I'd feel a lot better if things ticked another few miles SE, but we can still survive a GFS scenario. It's all about the lift. Sure we might dryslot quicker, but if you have massive lift in the column that's below 0C..your good. Now figuring out where the haves and have nots are, is a different story, but just give me the big lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 yoooohoooooo I know you see my posts what are you thinking for NW corner? Are you Kev's son lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow, that's just a sick storm at 180 as Tip mentioned. 946mb Aleutian low, looks like a classic -EPO/+PNA type block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Links plz http://www.weatherof...ast/611_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GGEM is a blue nuke for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ast/611_100.gif http://www.weatherof...ast/622_100.gif Looks to pass over cc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ast/611_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gif Game on interior... Good consensus rgem/ggem/gfs... lets get the euro and i'll be grinning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GGEM is a blue nuke for the interior How would Kev I and do on that.....graphics blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow, that's just a sick storm at 180 as Tip mentioned. 946mb Aleutian low, looks like a classic -EPO/+PNA type block. ... yeah, it deepens madly over that next 12 hours.... Pretty much off the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Are you Kev's son lol haha no, I just never know when he's referring to "us/me" if he's talking about WeHa or CT as a whole. I really think the euro should be taken into account before anyone jumps one way or another. that and im on a phone so I can't look at anything for myself, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS ensemble mean goes over ACK it looks like. A bit colder than the OP run which isn't surprising...usually the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 yeah, it deepens madly over that next 12 hours.... Pretty much off the charts Ironically the 0C line exactly straddles my county, basically a cruel repeat of this storm as depicted on the 12z GFS. I could do without a redux of what it's now showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GGEM is a blue nuke for the interior "Take us to Defcon one - we may have to go through with this thing" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 haha no, I just never know when he's referring to "us/me" if he's talking about WeHa or CT as a whole. I really think the euro should be taken into account before anyone jumps one way or another. I haven't actually "forecasted" anything here... but I would feel better if I lived by you. But I think the odds of a major storm are pretty low for most of CT. Better for Litchfield County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 How would Kev I and do on that.....graphics blow. Probably a toaster in bathtub storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GEFS brings the low over CHH...cooler than the op, but not by a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ironically the 0C line exactly straddles my county, basically a cruel repeat of this storm as depicted on the 12z GFS. I could do without a redux of what it's now showing. I'm relatively certain Westchester County doesn't see much from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ast/611_100.gif http://www.weatherof...ast/622_100.gif Holy sh*t we get destroyed up here... that second one is just absolutely ridiculous. Game on! Can we get 2 feet of snow in a 7 day period between the two storms? It would be nice to see the snowpack go back up to near 40" in early April. 18-20" currently on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Probably a toaster in bathtub storm. It's usually too warm, anyway. Ryan, Kev says him FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ast/611_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/622_100.gif Well, After analyzing those ancient hieroglyphics, It looks like we would do well here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm relatively certain Westchester County doesn't see much from this. It's going to be hard if the H7 low tracks right over NYC, and backside snows on NW winds are usually overmodeled here due to the downsloping factor. But I could definitely see the rain/snow line setting up over Westchester/Putnam border and pounding the crap out of the high terrain in the Hudson Highlands. Pretty optimistic for our vacation home in the Northern Poconos now, think they might see more QPF than shown with that mid level track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ironically the 0C line exactly straddles my county, basically a cruel repeat of this storm as depicted on the 12z GFS. I could do without a redux of what it's now showing. Will and Scott are probably going to make fun of me for commenting on an event over D7 like this .... buuuuut, if those parametrics come together that way, you would be all snow - period, bank it. Done deal, with no exception. That's Meteorological correction talking. By the way folks, this current storm kind of has that appeal for me where the core of the precipitaiton shield is blue at Intellicast's p-type, but the edges... say 20-50 miles in is cold green rain. Couldn't you see that as a possible outcome? And ... whom ever is in that core would be getting some big huge hammer aggregates with occasional thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Holy sh*t we get destroyed up here... that second one is just absolutely ridiculous. Game on! Can we get 2 feet of snow in a 7 day period between the two storms? It would be nice to see the snowpack go back up to near 40" in early April. 18-20" currently on the ground. How is the 12z GFS looking for qpf up this way (northern VT)? Was the SE tick enough to take us out of the heavier amounts or will ratio improvement keep this a warning + event? GGEM certainly looks nice for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's going to be hard if the H7 low tracks right over NYC, and backside snows on NW winds are usually overmodeled here due to the downsloping factor. But I could definitely see the rain/snow line setting up over Westchester/Putnam border and pounding the crap out of the high terrain in the Hudson Highlands. Pretty optimistic for our vacation home in the Northern Poconos now, think they might see more QPF than shown with that mid level track. Going to be a nail bitter for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's usually too warm, anyway. Ryan, Kev says him FTW FTW about a rainstorm in Tolland on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 FTW about a rainstorm in Tolland on the GFS? He'd probably take an electrical bath if the GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm sensing Ray at 32 and S+ and me at 34 and R+ The pain of VD part II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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