Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 T-51 hrs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You've been awful today? Ragging it? All I asked was for a met to answer me You just can't smell your own menstrual blood sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Earliest of public teasers... looks like Noyes and Bouchard leaning snow in Boston metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I wonder what the tone of this forum would be if the 18z GFS came in horrible. You just might find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Bouch going with a more euro thermal profile it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Man that 12z UKMET looks nice. Potential snowgasm but its still 2.5 days away. (That said it has been the most robust solution since this past weekend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Bouch going with a more euro thermal profile it seems. Both him and Noyes look similar on ptype. I think it looks pretty good for Boston, though obviously a bit less wiggle room there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm starting to think a decent portion of this could fall during the predawn and early morning hours where the sun angle will be less of a factor...especially down in S CT where it will come in sooner. It seems the models have been speeding up the timing of this a bit. Oh yeah I agree... especially if the timing speeds up by a couple of hours. And I also think, as you mentioned, timing looks better for most of CT than it does for the remainder of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Both him and Noyes look similar on ptype. I think it looks pretty good for Boston, though obviously a bit less wiggle room there. No! I won't hear it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You've been awful today? Ragging it? All I asked was for a met to answer me I know that's what you asked I still don't know why you haven't looked yourself instead of asking no less than 4 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Bouch going with a more euro thermal profile it seems. More 0Z than 12Z... He still keeps mostly snow in Boston metro... frankly surprised they're delineating such clear maps already with crazy uncle and few other 12z models showing more hugger of a track See my earlier post with Bouchard's and Noyes' maps Earliest of public teasers... looks like Noyes and Bouchard leaning snow in Boston metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Both him and Noyes look similar on ptype. I think it looks pretty good for Boston, though obviously a bit less wiggle room there. Pretty good ageostrophic flow perhaps saving the BOS area....what else is new..lol. I took a peak at 925 temps and it had a classic dynamic cooling over most areas nw of the canal. Looks like temps 25-30F at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 More 0Z than 12Z... He still keeps mostly snow in Boston metro... frankly surprised they're delineating such clear maps already with crazy uncle and few other 12z models showing more hugger of a track See my earlier post with Bouchard's and Noyes' maps I give them credit I certainly wouldn't be tonight. Tomorrow night certainly but I could see this thing jogging a good bit in either direction which is going to create huge differences. It's not Feb 15... it's Apr 1.... not much wiggle room for places outside of the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I know that's what you asked I still don't know why you haven't looked yourself instead of asking no less than 4 times. I'm trying to take care of a sick child. My apologies for not being able to look in detail. i won't ask again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Pretty good ageostrophic flow perhaps saving the BOS area....what else is new..lol. I took a peak at 925 temps and it had a classic dynamic cooling over most areas nw of the canal. Looks like temps 25-30F at 925mb. I was surprised how cold the Euro 2M temps were even as the event begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm trying to take care of a sick child. My apologies for not being able to look in detail. i won't ask again lol you're so dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 lol you're so dramatic Usually Will or Scooter answer these types of questions.. I guess it ends midday Friday for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Pretty good ageostrophic flow perhaps saving the BOS area....what else is new..lol. I took a peak at 925 temps and it had a classic dynamic cooling over most areas nw of the canal. Looks like temps 25-30F at 925mb. I like the antecedent airmass a lot. Its cold and dry. Dry is definitely a good thing giving a lot of evap cooling potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I was surprised how cold the Euro 2M temps were even as the event begins. Well 4/1/97 and even 4/10/96 showed me how you can go from 40 to 32-33 pretty quickly, so I don't doubt the cooling, especially if we can keep the omega going. Lift is key..I don't want any dryslot issues, so I'd actually prefer something a little east of the euro op..just to be sure. The only thing that might offset this is some sort of CF, but frontogenesis from a CF this time of year isn't all that impressive I would think. It's mostly convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Usually Will or Scooter answer these types of questions.. I guess it ends midday Friday for most What was your question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well 4/1/97 and even 4/10/96 showed me how you can go from 40 to 32-33 pretty quickly, so I don't doubt the cooling, especially if we can keep the omega going. Lift is key..I don't want any dryslot issues, so I'd actually prefer something a little east of the euro op..just to be sure. The only thing that might offset this is some sort of CF, but frontogenesis from a CF this time of year isn't all that impressive I would think. It's mostly convergence. omega trumps everything the april 03 event occurred entirely during the day, yet still stuck to roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What was your question? Was just wondering when it ends. Friday or early Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well 4/1/97 and even 4/10/96 showed me how you can go from 40 to 32-33 pretty quickly, so I don't doubt the cooling, especially if we can keep the omega going. Lift is key..I don't want any dryslot issues, so I'd actually prefer something a little east of the euro op..just to be sure. The only thing that might offset this is some sort of CF, but frontogenesis from a CF this time of year isn't all that impressive I would think. It's mostly convergence. Big omega will make up for most sins. I recall Mar 31, 1997...got out of school at 2pm to thundersnow with already 3" and it was covering every surface like mid winter. Roads were a disaster. We were down to 30F by 1pm and down to 29F by 4pm. That was max sun angle on Mar 31...so same time of year almost exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well 4/1/97 and even 4/10/96 showed me how you can go from 40 to 32-33 pretty quickly, so I don't doubt the cooling, especially if we can keep the omega going. Lift is key..I don't want any dryslot issues, so I'd actually prefer something a little east of the euro op..just to be sure. The only thing that might offset this is some sort of CF, but frontogenesis from a CF this time of year isn't all that impressive I would think. It's mostly convergence. Care to elaborate, Scott... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Big omega will make up for most sins. I recall Mar 31, 1997...got out of school at 2pm to thundersnow with already 3" and it was covering every surface like mid winter. Roads were a disaster. We were down to 30F by 1pm and down to 29F by 4pm. That was max sun angle on Mar 31...so same time of year almost exactly. If you're snowing 2 or 3" an hour oh yeah you're going to blitz. But 1/2SM or 3/4SM won't cut it this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Was just wondering when it ends. Friday or early Sat? Depends on the models, but I would say it tapers off late day on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I know that's what you asked I still don't know why you haven't looked yourself instead of asking no less than 4 times. He's on Midol it makes even more dysfunctional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What exactly is omega....is it lift in the atmosphere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Depends on the models, but I would say it tapers off late day on Friday. Thanks for taking the time to answer..when others couldn't. Much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Big omega will make up for most sins. I recall Mar 31, 1997...got out of school at 2pm to thundersnow with already 3" and it was covering every surface like mid winter. Roads were a disaster. We were down to 30F by 1pm and down to 29F by 4pm. That was max sun angle on Mar 31...so same time of year almost exactly. Yeah it stuck onto Rt 24 pretty quickly. I had to pull over twice because it was sticking to my wipers..lol. Omega rules..never doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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