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Tulip Trouncer Threat III - April Fool's Joke


Baroclinic Zone

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I'm starting to think a decent portion of this could fall during the predawn and early morning hours where the sun angle will be less of a factor...especially down in S CT where it will come in sooner. It seems the models have been speeding up the timing of this a bit.

Oh yeah I agree... especially if the timing speeds up by a couple of hours. And I also think, as you mentioned, timing looks better for most of CT than it does for the remainder of New England.

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Bouch going with a more euro thermal profile it seems.

More 0Z than 12Z... He still keeps mostly snow in Boston metro... frankly surprised they're delineating such clear maps already with crazy uncle and few other 12z models showing more hugger of a track

See my earlier post with Bouchard's and Noyes' maps

Earliest of public teasers... looks like Noyes and Bouchard leaning snow in Boston metro...

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Both him and Noyes look similar on ptype. I think it looks pretty good for Boston, though obviously a bit less wiggle room there.

Pretty good ageostrophic flow perhaps saving the BOS area....what else is new..lol.

I took a peak at 925 temps and it had a classic dynamic cooling over most areas nw of the canal. Looks like temps 25-30F at 925mb.

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More 0Z than 12Z... He still keeps mostly snow in Boston metro... frankly surprised they're delineating such clear maps already with crazy uncle and few other 12z models showing more hugger of a track

See my earlier post with Bouchard's and Noyes' maps

I give them credit I certainly wouldn't be tonight. Tomorrow night certainly but I could see this thing jogging a good bit in either direction which is going to create huge differences. It's not Feb 15... it's Apr 1.... not much wiggle room for places outside of the hills.

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Pretty good ageostrophic flow perhaps saving the BOS area....what else is new..lol.

I took a peak at 925 temps and it had a classic dynamic cooling over most areas nw of the canal. Looks like temps 25-30F at 925mb.

I was surprised how cold the Euro 2M temps were even as the event begins.

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Pretty good ageostrophic flow perhaps saving the BOS area....what else is new..lol.

I took a peak at 925 temps and it had a classic dynamic cooling over most areas nw of the canal. Looks like temps 25-30F at 925mb.

I like the antecedent airmass a lot. Its cold and dry. Dry is definitely a good thing giving a lot of evap cooling potential.

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I was surprised how cold the Euro 2M temps were even as the event begins.

Well 4/1/97 and even 4/10/96 showed me how you can go from 40 to 32-33 pretty quickly, so I don't doubt the cooling, especially if we can keep the omega going. Lift is key..I don't want any dryslot issues, so I'd actually prefer something a little east of the euro op..just to be sure. The only thing that might offset this is some sort of CF, but frontogenesis from a CF this time of year isn't all that impressive I would think. It's mostly convergence.

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Well 4/1/97 and even 4/10/96 showed me how you can go from 40 to 32-33 pretty quickly, so I don't doubt the cooling, especially if we can keep the omega going. Lift is key..I don't want any dryslot issues, so I'd actually prefer something a little east of the euro op..just to be sure. The only thing that might offset this is some sort of CF, but frontogenesis from a CF this time of year isn't all that impressive I would think. It's mostly convergence.

omega trumps everything

the april 03 event occurred entirely during the day, yet still stuck to roads

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Well 4/1/97 and even 4/10/96 showed me how you can go from 40 to 32-33 pretty quickly, so I don't doubt the cooling, especially if we can keep the omega going. Lift is key..I don't want any dryslot issues, so I'd actually prefer something a little east of the euro op..just to be sure. The only thing that might offset this is some sort of CF, but frontogenesis from a CF this time of year isn't all that impressive I would think. It's mostly convergence.

Big omega will make up for most sins. I recall Mar 31, 1997...got out of school at 2pm to thundersnow with already 3" and it was covering every surface like mid winter. Roads were a disaster. We were down to 30F by 1pm and down to 29F by 4pm. That was max sun angle on Mar 31...so same time of year almost exactly.

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Well 4/1/97 and even 4/10/96 showed me how you can go from 40 to 32-33 pretty quickly, so I don't doubt the cooling, especially if we can keep the omega going. Lift is key..I don't want any dryslot issues, so I'd actually prefer something a little east of the euro op..just to be sure. The only thing that might offset this is some sort of CF, but frontogenesis from a CF this time of year isn't all that impressive I would think. It's mostly convergence.

Care to elaborate, Scott...

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Big omega will make up for most sins. I recall Mar 31, 1997...got out of school at 2pm to thundersnow with already 3" and it was covering every surface like mid winter. Roads were a disaster. We were down to 30F by 1pm and down to 29F by 4pm. That was max sun angle on Mar 31...so same time of year almost exactly.

If you're snowing 2 or 3" an hour oh yeah you're going to blitz. But 1/2SM or 3/4SM won't cut it this time of year.

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Big omega will make up for most sins. I recall Mar 31, 1997...got out of school at 2pm to thundersnow with already 3" and it was covering every surface like mid winter. Roads were a disaster. We were down to 30F by 1pm and down to 29F by 4pm. That was max sun angle on Mar 31...so same time of year almost exactly.

Yeah it stuck onto Rt 24 pretty quickly. I had to pull over twice because it was sticking to my wipers..lol. Omega rules..never doubt it.

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