ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM looks pretty good for areas just N and W of boston as well as CNE. looks like a pretty big beating actually. It has snow as the ptype here at 48h, but its close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It was interesting to me how the 00z UKMET passed a rather paltry by comparison low pressure between CC and the BM, only to bomb it out like was originally thought for us, up near NS - I just saw that before any other guidance and pretty much was ready to throw my hands to this. Now the NAM has that deepening too late vibe about it, too - maybe the model has sucked up to this point, but joins the party by ripping Kevin's heart out. The UKMET, if one goes to the NCEP verificaiton page, boast some pretty lofty scores - which is one reason why I have some trouble understanding this whole "crazy unkle" mystique that goes on around here. Having said that, if the scores are that good and we are at or inside 72 hours, ...I saw that run and felt pretty good that I actually DON'T want snow, and therefore, am far less disappointed by what it implies. Basically: 'haha, hope you enjoyed getting your hopes up for nothing' At this point, I hope it all whiffs sufficiently E that my buds and I can get some DG in this weekend. Sunday, if the NAM is correct, may actually turn out to be a pretty darn nice day, with back side light NW breezes, down slope, in -3C - probably 47 for a high under blue skies. Unfortunately, the NAM has sucked on this system up to this point so can't bank on that either. Sadly your Barre Falls Dam trip will have to be postponed due to impassable roads in Hubbardston. 12-14" incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I was gonna say....the lat and long sounded similar to the EURO, but then Scott said "horrific".... It had the 850 0C isotherm over Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM looks pretty good for areas just N and W of boston as well as CNE. looks like a pretty big beating actually. Anyone care to post images? (or a site that updates rgem quickly) I haven't done a really good job making bookmarks since I got this laptop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I was gonna say....the lat and long sounded similar to the EURO, but then Scott said "horrific".... well if you look at the 4 chart maps, it doesnt look great wrt to profiles but the ptype maps are showing snow very close to the areas N and W of boston. its obiously implying that dynamics would overcome . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Oh...man, it makes me laugh... Someone makes a cogent anti-snow thetic conversation piece, and although folks are in general polite about it, there is immediately a multi-posted reasons why said cogent point can be winnowed down to meaning nothing. Look, I'm not saying the NAM was right…. It’s just another solution with this. If I were a betting man I’d have to go with the Euro because it’s just a better tool, period. Just be aware that 2wice this last year it performed colossally bad. Although, I was looking over the UKMET… what it is actually doing is just bombing the storm too late to get us into the type of dynamics that would cool the column for snow – that’s the big difference. The low track guidance is acceptable in terms of continuity, and is between CC and the BM. But, by comparison it is a vastly paltry intensity compared to earlier runs for that lat/lon… LOOK OUT Nova Scotia and eastern ME with the UKIE/NAM blend. Those places get rocked. The NAM is kind of doing the same thing in all honesty, which is an interesting union. We’ll see… If the 12z Euro holds serve, we can equally suspect these other emerging trends. Hell, may just have to now cast this baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It had the 850 0C isotherm over Pete. It looks like that is the 1000-700mb thickness line...the snow line would probably be a ways SE of that...maybe 50 mi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM is going with the theory of not enough separation and therefore not enough digging to get a big bomb. Maybe a big boob. NAM doesn't give more than pedestrian amounts to anyone in SNE/NNE save for areas down east from BHB. NAM has no idea what's going on yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Does not suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Barring some kind of bizarre jog... that destroys the same areas at the EURO almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It looks like that is the 1000-700mb thickness line...the snow line would probably be a ways SE of that...maybe 50 mi? I always thought it was the 850 0C line for whatever reason. Well in that case, it probably would be snow up by your way, but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It has snow as the ptype here at 48h, but its close. Wouldn't expect it any other way at this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well time to see what the big dog models have for us. Get your popcorn ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It had the 850 0C isotherm over Pete. Obviously biased warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks ok to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah it runs warm...the reality is that it is a great track for western NE and actually a bit too far east for optimum in ENY. It would be colder than the RGEM shows and ORH west to Pete would get buried if that verified. I'll wait on the EURO before grabbing the umbrella, but that isn't good. RGEM usually runs a bit warm, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Obviously biased warm. It was the 1000-700 thickness, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The RGEM is essentially the one soloution that would prompt me to slit my wrists; Dec 1996. I'll take east of that or west of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah it runs warm...the reality is that it is a great track for western NE and actually a bit too far east for optimum in ENY. It would be colder than the RGEM shows and ORH west to Pete would get buried if that verified. RGEM would probably be a good hit down here...it has Westchester on the snow/rain line but we know the warm bias.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It was the 1000-700 thickness, my bad. I'd rather you were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 12Z GFS is running, crossing fingers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM would probably be a good hit down here...it has Westchester on the snow/rain line but we know the warm bias.. People come on it's April 1... borderline will not cut it for 95% of us. We need a PERFECT track of the sfc and mid level lows and 850 temps that aren't hovering around 0c but are solidly below 0c. At 1000ft you may get lucky with a borderline situation but for most of us no. The BIG hits from yesterday had a surge of -4c 850 temps on the backside of the deepening 850/700mb low as we cranked big lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd rather you were right. It's a broad brush way of looking at the thermal profile of a layer, but in Canada..the lower levels usually aren't the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 certainly not a fat lady singing. the 2 concerning trends since 0z: 1) obviously the NW trend 2) too late SLP deepening, and consequently reduced qpf and insufficient dynamics for cooling all models i've seen (NAM, GFS, EURO, UK, RGEM) have pushed trend #1 to varying degrees not all models agree with trend #2 while it took a hit, don't think the big snow potential is over... we are 48 hrs away and have seen things fluctuate in the 48-36 hr timeframe throughout this winter. 50 mile shift east will make a huge difference, and that's definitely in margin of error this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 First look through 18 my first guess is slightly s or se of 06z... we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 First look through 18 my first guess is slightly s or se of 06z... we shall see That was my completely amateur take on it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think the GFS is going to be hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 OT, it's amazing to me that the teleconnectors depicted here: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png ...could ever portend a 00z Euro notion on D8 or 9 next week... The 12z GGEM had that yesterday, too, but since last night it has it back W - which is actually a better fit. Am still wondering if the deterministic models kind of 'all at once' start lifting the westerlies and allowing real warmth at some point post this weekend's debacle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS is not as amped up as 06z so far...not sure if verbatim it will be a huge help yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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