40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Not ending.... "Things better change in a hurry" - So you're just parked along side the Tobin in wait, not at the ledge. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think what we hope for is that the models over trended a bit at 00z...its not uncommon to see that. However, I think its equally likely that they have latched onto a correct idea...we just can't answer that yet. I think we'll find out soon enough here at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think what we hope for is that the models over trended a bit at 00z...its not uncommon to see that. However, I think its equally likely that they have latched onto a correct idea...we just can't answer that yet. I think we'll find out soon enough here at 12z. 6-12" for most lower elevations....this season won't go out any other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That is not a torch by April standards, dude. no, but a significant turnaround from a day or two ago with snow on the ground and low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I agree...even Will is sending me disparaging texts and I don't get it. Maybe I'll have to eat my words in a few hours, but I think you're easily good for 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 no, but a significant turnaround from a day or two ago with snow on the ground and low 40s Yes...not enough of a turn around for me....snow like hell, then by 70* is my preference. SV subscription will be put into moth balls and focus shifts to baseball, after this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Looks like a few more snow threats on the 6z GFS...really liking the storm at 168 with -10C 850s parked over NNE. A lot more confluence for that one, a key ingredient for a late-season event...let's see if the coastal can get squashed south of NYC. Even if this one doesn't go our way, plenty of chances before real spring begins, especially if you ski up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Maybe I'll have to eat my words in a few hours, but I think you're easily good for 6-12" I agree....first call was 9-15"...2nd call after the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 hi res might be killing the MAN at this point. It did score a coup with that strung-out two piece system a month or so ago, but that was a southern stream feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think what we hope for is that the models over trended a bit at 00z...its not uncommon to see that. However, I think its equally likely that they have latched onto a correct idea...we just can't answer that yet. I think we'll find out soon enough here at 12z. It was interesting to me how the 00z UKMET passed a rather paltry by comparison low pressure between CC and the BM, only to bomb it out like was originally thought for us, up near NS - I just saw that before any other guidance and pretty much was ready to throw my hands to this. Now the NAM has that deepening too late vibe about it, too - maybe the model has sucked up to this point, but joins the party by ripping Kevin's heart out. The UKMET, if one goes to the NCEP verificaiton page, boast some pretty lofty scores - which is one reason why I have some trouble understanding this whole "crazy unkle" mystique that goes on around here. Having said that, if the scores are that good and we are at or inside 72 hours, ...I saw that run and felt pretty good that I actually DON'T want snow, and therefore, am far less disappointed by what it implies. Basically: 'haha, hope you enjoyed getting your hopes up for nothing' At this point, I hope it all whiffs sufficiently E that my buds and I can get some DG in this weekend. Sunday, if the NAM is correct, may actually turn out to be a pretty darn nice day, with back side light NW breezes, down slope, in -3C - probably 47 for a high under blue skies. Unfortunately, the NAM has sucked on this system up to this point so can't bank on that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So you're just parked along side the Tobin in wait, not at the ledge. lol Dude, ....I don't want snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The UK is certainly prone to extreme soloutions....I think it verifes so well because the avg of it's extremes is a pretty damn good forecast, most of the time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yes...not enough of a turn around for me....snow like hell, then by 70* is my preference. SV subscription will be put into moth balls and focus shifts to baseball, after this event. My subscription goes into moth balls as well here soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The UK is certainly prone to extreme soloutions....I think it verifes so well because the avg of it's extremes is a pretty damn good forecast, most of the time. lol That model waffles around so much. It's hard to take a model seriously that can go hundreds of miles in one run. I don't care what the stats are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 My subscription goes into moth balls as well here soon... I was dumb enough to pay up front to get the free month. Not doing that next time around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That model waffles around so much. It's hard to take a model seriously that can go hundreds of miles in one run. I don't care what the stats are. UKMET may have a high 500mb verification score but it sucks at handling U.S. Nor'easters, and that's what we care about. Nobody gives a damn whether it correctly placed the 576dm height line over Morocco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That model waffles around so much. It's hard to take a model seriously that can go hundreds of miles in one run. I don't care what the stats are. Stats can sometime belie the dailies... Ray does bring up an interesting discussion point that the mean of its standard deviations ring truer than any given model run. Buuuut, I haven't heard or read anything formal on the matter. I was just siting what NCEP reports - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It was interesting to me how the 00z UKMET passed a rather paltry by comparison low pressure between CC and the BM, only to bomb it out like was originally thought for us, up near NS - I just saw that before any other guidance and pretty much was ready to throw my hands to this. Now the NAM has that deepening too late vibe about it, too - maybe the model has sucked up to this point, but joins the party by ripping Kevin's heart out. The UKMET, if one goes to the NCEP verificaiton page, boast some pretty lofty scores - which is one reason why I have some trouble understanding this whole "crazy unkle" mystique that goes on around here. Having said that, if the scores are that good and we are at or inside 72 hours, ...I saw that run and felt pretty good that I actually DON'T want snow, and therefore, am far less disappointed by what it implies. Basically: 'haha, hope you enjoyed getting your hopes up for nothing' At this point, I hope it all whiffs sufficiently E that my buds and I can get some DG in this weekend. Sunday, if the NAM is correct, may actually turn out to be a pretty darn nice day, with back side light NW breezes, down slope, in -3C - probably 47 for a high under blue skies. Unfortunately, the NAM has sucked on this system up to this point so can't bank on that either. I named it crazy uncle Ukie and it's because of it's propensity to have ridulously amped solutions jumping all over the place. Everyone talks about it's skill scores but I find it not all that useful for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's gonna be tough letting go of the storm threats as we get deep into April and great upper level set-ups lead to 38F and rain. But for a few more weeks it is still do-able. Looks like a few more snow threats on the 6z GFS...really liking the storm at 168 with -10C 850s parked over NNE. A lot more confluence for that one, a key ingredient for a late-season event...let's see if the coastal can get squashed south of NYC. Even if this one doesn't go our way, plenty of chances before real spring begins, especially if you ski up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 UKMET may have a high 500mb verification score but it sucks at handling U.S. Nor'easters, and that's what we care about. Nobody gives a damn whether it correctly placed the 576dm height line over Morocco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I was dumb enough to pay up front to get the free month. Not doing that next time around.. Yeah, Jerry, I go month to month and usually suspend it in April until around October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's like you hacked into Nate's laptop. I agree with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM has a 986 low 40/72 at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM has a 986 low 40/72 at 48 hours. It's horrific looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 UKMET has the AGW-induced extremes factored into its algorithms. I think the model uses a defunct gulf stream as its D7 climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's horrific looking. 44 mm max in messenger's BY. Few get untainted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 44 mm max in messenger's BY. Few get untainted. I'll wait on the EURO before grabbing the umbrella, but that isn't good. RGEM usually runs a bit warm, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM has a 986 low 40/72 at 48 hours. I'm 42.6/72.8. Hopefully that has a nice easterly component to its movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM looks pretty good for areas just N and W of boston as well as CNE. looks like a pretty big beating actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 RGEM looks pretty good for areas just N and W of boston as well as CNE. looks like a pretty big beating actually. I was gonna say....the lat and long sounded similar to the EURO, but then Scott said "horrific".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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