40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just about now is when weenies begin banking on a sub 980mb low to "generate it's own cold" and "stay closer to the natural baroclinic zone" or whatever talking point... Common sense...I'm still looking for something in this global pattern that would argue a BM track and I-95 heavy snowstorm/blizzard. I do not see it and would love for someone to shed some light on that.. The whole deal reminds me much more of April 07 than April 97. A blizzard would be a great end to the colder months, but I haven't heard or seen any convincing evidence in the past 48 hours that would lock in a great solution, esp for the coast. Like Ryan said, we want a bulletproof solution at this point (48-60 hrs out). It isn't. Hopefully something good happens, but look at the past month and a half...there have been many chances and none have really worked out, esp for SNE. Who is arguing for a BM track at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I am glad it came east some, Now maybe the others follow... I'm not holding my breath on the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 except that the energy in question came ashore well north of cyzt...which is why that theory sucks donkey balls so much and satellite data is fine. there's been a storm progged for the east coast for like 8 days. LOL. Just a bit of a generalization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 We do NOT need a benchmark track for heavy snow along I95 in SNE. Dynamic cooling will produce several hours of heavy snow in these areas. There's no reason for anyone to be looking for a BM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The NAM means little to me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 We do NOT need a benchmark track for heavy snow along I95 in SNE. Dynamic cooling will produce several hours of heavy snow in these areas. There's no reason for anyone to be looking for a BM track. Right....immediate coast maybe tough, but....e MA would def. do much btr w a BM track, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just about now is when weenies begin banking on a sub 980mb low to "generate it's own cold" and "stay closer to the natural baroclinic zone" or whatever talking point... Common sense...I'm still looking for something in this global pattern that would argue a BM track and I-95 heavy snowstorm/blizzard. I do not see it and would love for someone to shed some light on that.. The whole deal reminds me much more of April 07 than April 97. A blizzard would be a great end to the colder months, but I haven't heard or seen any convincing evidence in the past 48 hours that would lock in a great solution, esp for the coast. Like Ryan said, we want a bulletproof solution at this point (48-60 hrs out). It isn't. Hopefully something good happens, but look at the past month and a half...there have been many chances and none have really worked out, esp for SNE. Long wave pattern + teleconnectors argue that it's possible. +PNA, Neg NAO dropping to neutral... very cold airmass relative to climo. It's all a question of timing and placement of S/W's as to where the axis of heavy snow sets up... cmon BIRV I know you're smarter than this. Euro was quite consistent on BM track around 72 hours out, so I think it would be foolish to throw in the towel at 48 hours. Obviously there's very small room for error so the 50-100 mile shift basically screws everyone near the coast, but that shift isn't locked in stone just yet. I think most reasonable people have a low expectation for major snows in april, but to say the pattern doesn't support an east coast snow storm is completely foolish in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just about now is when weenies begin banking on a sub 980mb low to "generate it's own cold" and "stay closer to the natural baroclinic zone" or whatever talking point... Common sense...I'm still looking for something in this global pattern that would argue a BM track and I-95 heavy snowstorm/blizzard. I do not see it and would love for someone to shed some light on that.. The whole deal reminds me much more of April 07 than April 97. A blizzard would be a great end to the colder months, but I haven't heard or seen any convincing evidence in the past 48 hours that would lock in a great solution, esp for the coast. Like Ryan said, we want a bulletproof solution at this point (48-60 hrs out). It isn't. Hopefully something good happens, but look at the past month and a half...there have been many chances and none have really worked out, esp for SNE. Having said that, weaker/ less amplified could probably further east with the 850/700 track which would help some. But that'd also play into the dynamics available, too... Good post. Not what I want to hear, but good nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ryan not pimping the NAM for his Eastern CT zones? Looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Things better change in a hurry else this is a largely unimpressive, forgettable and ultimately proven an unnecessary romp into getting Kevin's hopes up for pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Things better change in a hurry else this is a largely unimpressive, forgettable and ultimately proven an unnecessary romp into getting Kevin's hopes up for pretty much nothing. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ryan not pimping the NAM for his Eastern CT zones? Looks nice. I'm holding out until the 12z globals. As I said under 8" does nothing for me and that is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Things better change in a hurry else this is a largely unimpressive, forgettable and ultimately proven an unnecessary romp into getting Kevin's hopes up for pretty much nothing. Don't end it yet...at least wait until the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 except that the energy in question came ashore well north of cyzt...which is why that theory sucks donkey balls so much and satellite data is fine. there's been a storm progged for the east coast for like 8 days. LOL. Sure, and the various studies, some posted by jconsor some not, indicating your wrong suck too. The kicker was just coming ashore at 12z but most of the vorticity was still offshore. SpecifIcally the kicker is about 72 hours from the east coast....right in the questionable timeframe noted in the study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Don't end it yet...at least wait until the 12z Euro. which Red Line train will he jump in front of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm holding out until the 12z globals. As I said under 8" does nothing for me and that is the NAM. I will take any I get in April, but true dat on the NAM. Do not understand Tips post though, I do not see any signs of this not being a huge impacter for at least some of our posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah, id hold off on making map changes until about 4 or so this afternoon. I would cutback on the sne coast for sure right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow there is so much bridge jumping going on. Usually I'm the first one gone, and now I think I'm one of like three remaining lol. This is still a 6-12" event away from the immediate coast, and 12+" for the interior higher terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM is total garbage, very weak and comes together very poorly thats not going to get most any snow of importance, no matter where it shows the low. gonna need something a lot more impressive and dynamic IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 when was the NAM's coronation? I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Sure, and the various studies, some posted by jconsor some not, indicating your wrong suck too. The kicker was just coming ashore at 12z but most of the vorticity was still offshore. SpecifIcally the kicker is about 72 hours from the east coast....right in the questionable timeframe noted in the study. that's fine. there's another thread for that discussion anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow there is so much bridge jumping going on. Usually I'm the first one gone, and now I think I'm one of like three remaining lol. This is still a 6-12" event away from the immediate coast, and 12+" for the interior higher terrain I know WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow there is so much bridge jumping going on. Usually I'm the first one gone, and now I think I'm one of like three remaining lol. This is still a 6-12" event away from the immediate coast, and 12+" for the interior higher terrain I'm with you.. id rather be a bit west of where I am right now.. fryeburg.. whites.. conway area. Im a bit concerned with mid levels and a bit of sneaky warmth around 950 for this area. Regarding SNE I could see framingham getting several inches while a place like belmont is pouring rain or by don in the heights. I would be 3-6 for ray at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow there is so much bridge jumping going on. Usually I'm the first one gone, and now I think I'm one of like three remaining lol. This is still a 6-12" event away from the immediate coast, and 12+" for the interior higher terrain It's all perspective based on ones location. It's easier for you to be optimistic up in ctrl NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 that's fine. there's another thread for that discussion anyway. I'm not saying it's having a definitive influence, just saying it fits very well to my own observations the last several years. What I perceived as an improvement when the main trigger s/w got east of the Rockies may actually be the kicker coming into better range. I think the conversation fits fine here and wxforecaster was justified in bringing it up considering stark guidance differences still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's all perspective based on one's location. It's easier for you to be optimistic up in ctrl NH. If you pretend the NAM never ran. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 nice 55F torch per the NAM on saturday for the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow there is so much bridge jumping going on. Usually I'm the first one gone, and now I think I'm one of like three remaining lol. This is still a 6-12" event away from the immediate coast, and 12+" for the interior higher terrain I agree...even Will is sending me disparaging texts and I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Don't end it yet...at least wait until the 12z Euro. Not ending.... "Things better change in a hurry" - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 nice 55F torch per the NAM on saturday for the cp. That is not a torch by April standards, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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