Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wxwatcher91 hit the nail on the head. The kicker is just starting to be sampled. It was at this point a week or so ago that the nam insisted on a lesser event in spite of every other model being more significant. We know how that ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM still offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM is a strung out pos as it goes SE of the cape. Maybe will be enough for NNE but it is pedestrian to sh*tful for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 lol wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wxwatcher91 hit the nail on the head. The kicker is just starting to be sampled. It was at this point a week or so ago that the nam insisted on a lesser event in spite of every other model being more significant. We know how that ended Just one of several reasons to wait and see how we look by 2:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That post was winning. Truly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wish I could bump the posts I made in the two other threads. Over the Cape with the best snow NW CT, Will, Foothills of Maine has been my thoughts. Victory bumps 48 hrs out....GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will is awake... prepare to be slapped into reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I see signs it is trending toward the other models.... now maybe it will end up being a compromise. NAM still offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I do think this surface track looks better for NNE through 48 despite less qpf.. too lazy to look at ML's on phone... 54 will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wxwatcher91 hit the nail on the head. The kicker is just starting to be sampled. It was at this point a week or so ago that the nam insisted on a lesser event in spite of every other model being more significant. We know how that ended That was a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 SREF probs for snow aren't all that hot, south of the Pike FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM is going with the theory of not enough separation and therefore not enough digging to get a big bomb. Maybe a big boob. NAM doesn't give more than pedestrian amounts to anyone in SNE/NNE save for areas down east from BHB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Glad Steve is already doing victory laps...forecast is obviously a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, the NAM at least starts spinning around 54... blech otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I do think this surface track looks better for NNE through 48 despite less qpf.. too lazy to look at ML's on phone... 54 will be interesting Bridgeton gets 3-6 if they're lucky per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Congrats Nova Scotia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Inverted trof down into SNE at 60 hours. Ray's favorite. What a waste if this transpires like this...glad we're on DST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Bridgeton gets 3-6 if they're lucky per this run. I think more 4-8"... regardless step in right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Any earth shattering changes? Berks get smoked? New NAM mainly shows a whiff but most other guidance shows a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I noticed the low levels say near 950 are more of the issue there. It looks like a big isothermal layer near 0C or just a bit below for a while, but that's probably going to be lift dependent too. Based on the vv's progged, it looked like it might do the trick, but there isn't really wiggle room..maybe a few tenths of a degree C..lol. Eh, we'll see. I already got asked about HFD. I said the one thing that is clear is that we won't have freezing rain..lol. Yeah that's why for something like this I really want to see -2 or -3c at 850mb. Flirting with 0c at 850 spells doom in the boundary layer this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The NAM is better in the midlevels than the GFS is... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Inverted trof down into SNE at 60 hours. Ray's favorite. What a waste if this transpires like this...glad we're on DST! I'd take this over what the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That was a good point. except that the energy in question came ashore well north of cyzt...which is why that theory sucks donkey balls so much and satellite data is fine. there's been a storm progged for the east coast for like 8 days. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah we have uncharacteristic no shows..... LOL! I'm in clinic too Jerry... likewise enjoying a no-show. NAM looks somewhat warmer and weaker... could have been worse, and still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 He's baaaaack... What light can you shine on this situation Mr. Smarty Pants? Just about now is when weenies begin banking on a sub 980mb low to "generate it's own cold" and "stay closer to the natural baroclinic zone" or whatever talking point... Common sense...I'm still looking for something in this global pattern that would argue a BM track and I-95 heavy snowstorm/blizzard. I do not see it and would love for someone to shed some light on that.. The whole deal reminds me much more of April 07 than April 97. A blizzard would be a great end to the colder months, but I haven't heard or seen any convincing evidence in the past 48 hours that would lock in a great solution, esp for the coast. Like Ryan said, we want a bulletproof solution at this point (48-60 hrs out). It isn't. Hopefully something good happens, but look at the past month and a half...there have been many chances and none have really worked out, esp for SNE. Having said that, weaker/ less amplified could probably further east with the 850/700 track which would help some. But that'd also play into the dynamics available, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I am glad it came east some, Now maybe the others follow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At this point, I would certainly cut back a little over extreme eastern MA from my map yesterday, but otherwise no changes IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I am glad it came east some, Now maybe the others follow... We'll see ... you usually don't see the globals following the NAM ... more often the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.