TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, I'm now balls deep into this one. Checking out 500 plots GFS vs. NAM... such vast differences with the energy over ND... and even TN.. NAM just looks plain messy. GFS is a smashing storm here but 5h is far from an ideal position, same with 7. 700 actually argues for a dry slot here.... Red flags raised there for substantial amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The SREFs, like the NAM, were over Africa yesterday and are still coming west, though. They were a joke, but they usually are laughable until inside 48 hrs or so. They absolutely had to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM looks like it will stay the course more or less. Not enough separation from the 1st wave prevents as much digging. Good.....even a 10% capitulation towards the NAM by the EURO is good for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Listen to what you want but you should not want the Euro to verify. Verbatim it's so close there, but I figured the lift might be just enough to help him out..at least for 6-8 hrs. But there can't be a tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, I'm now balls deep into this one. Checking out 500 plots GFS vs. NAM... such vast differences with the energy over ND... and even TN.. NAM just looks plain messy. GFS is a smashing storm here but 5h is far from an ideal position, same with 7. 700 actually argues for a dry slot here.... Red flags raised there for substantial amounts Red flag for over 1', but I'd call 6-12" in April "substantial"...even up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 HPC track is not "just inside the BM." They have the low just south of Montauk Point by 12z Fri. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php Really, Does not look like it to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM looks like it may be rather similar to 0Z....which is just fine with me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Contrary to what the weenies say the Euro sucked for you with probably only a couple slushy inches you can come park the news van at my house when I get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 HPC track is not "just inside the BM." They have the low just south of Montauk Point by 12z Fri. http://www.hpc.ncep....basicwx_wbg.php He's talking about this track: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Verbatim it's so close there, but I figured the lift might be just enough to help him out..at least for 6-8 hrs. But there can't be a tick west. If there is ever ANY doubt, whatsoever, Ryan will defer to Dr death. Alot of the disagreements on here are more attributable to perceptions, than actual data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 He's talking about this track: http://www.hpc.ncep....k_ensembles.gif That actually looks as though it's a hair outside of the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It was like rotating fast and throwing stuff up. Just took a look at a couple locations for tomorrow... on twisterdata for 06z GFS... Looks like I warm aloft right after precip ends... pretty near perfect lol. it's a power broom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM is pretty far east at 30 hours with H5 digging getting better at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM is pretty far east at 30 hours with H5 digging getting better at that point. Guess you won't be needing that text lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 100% reliance upon the models = fail. Enjoy your spring cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That actually looks as though it's a hair outside of the bm. moot point anyways there not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 EURO is a near perfect surface track for here... 12+... 5h still goes overhead like the GFS.. 700 is much better than GFS.. the dryslot knocks on dryslut's (the member) doorstep but never gets here of IZG... verbatim looks pretty intense here with probably big time banding for the mtns.. as BOX noted awesome cooling wrapped down into SNE on the backside at 850mb.. pretty cool on the plots perfect comma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Guess you won't be needing that text lol Yeah we have uncharacteristic no shows..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 One thought: Not sure if John mentioned it yet, but going along with his sparse data fetish, the s/w responsible for the storm is just now being sampled, and most likely that is producing a more potent representation in the models. Meanwhile, the kicker s/w is still offshore, so it is not getting sampled as well, and is being under-represented. So this has resulted in less of a kicker to push the storm eastward. So a good idea would be to WAIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Red flag for over 1', but I'd call 6-12" in April "substantial"...even up there. No doubt... at the same time thats a red flag for that run... I do not think the GFS is right... off to doctors for allergy issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I really don't see why everyone is jumping ship.. models have been terrible all year 48 hours out, why would they nail this one 48 hours out? Just think back to last storm for gods sake..what was that? A 100 mile shift 12 hours out with ALL models? What we need Is a stop in the trend west in 12 of the gfs and globals..it has to at some point cause of the kicker is there and not going anywhere.. I'm not jumping until radar reaches CT NAM still SE great sign IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Verbatim it's so close there, but I figured the lift might be just enough to help him out..at least for 6-8 hrs. But there can't be a tick west. Even with great dynamics this time of year you want everything 1 or 2 ticks colder than you would in January or February IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow NAM is really hanging onto an eastern solution now inside of 48 hours. Hmmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 100% reliance upon the models = fail. Enjoy your spring cut off. He's baaaaack... What light can you shine on this situation Mr. Smarty Pants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow NAM is really hanging onto an eastern solution now inside of 48 hours. Hmmmmm... Well, the NAM was the savior for the other HECS....we need it to pull a nother weenie out of it's hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Any earth shattering changes? Berks get smoked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Best CCB is out toward ALB, but there is a hellecious WCB that crushes interior SNE and even toward BOS. Ekster's call of a sfc low over the canal was right. Looks like it tracks right over there. But it def tucked the 850 low enough to keep most areas from BOS and westward all or mostly snow. Wish I could bump the posts I made in the two other threads. Over the Cape with the best snow NW CT, Will, Foothills of Maine has been my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 He's baaaaack... What light can you shine on this situation Mr. Smarty Pants? That post was winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Even with great dynamics this time of year you want everything 1 or 2 ticks colder than you would in January or February IMO. I noticed the low levels say near 950 are more of the issue there. It looks like a big isothermal layer near 0C or just a bit below for a while, but that's probably going to be lift dependent too. Based on the vv's progged, it looked like it might do the trick, but there isn't really wiggle room..maybe a few tenths of a degree C..lol. Eh, we'll see. I already got asked about HFD. I said the one thing that is clear is that we won't have freezing rain..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 When do you leave for Alaska? Any earth shattering changes? Berks get smoked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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