Wx4cast Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah... I'd bet you anything that track comes west with their afternoon update. I really think the 00z EURO is pretty close to accurate given the spread right now with the GFS and UKMET warmer/west, and the GGEM nearby... its really only the ensembles, NOGAPS, and NAM that are further east. Still a lot of time left though and if it doesn't develop quick enough, then an eastward track would be likely. Absolutely agree with this. BUT if does develop quickly a UK/GFS blend will be the winner IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, it sucks that it doesn't look as good as it did last night....especially for my area. Maybe..but the Euro was good for many of us. GFS is too far west..12z will correct east. GGEM looks good. We're fine.. Ukie always too far west and amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man everything looks good..and yet some folks. are just slitting their throats..WSW's up..hills look to do well. and even some lower spots..and still death is in the air. Don't get it Even earlier in the week people we're talking west of Worcester/91 being the place to be, and that may very well be the case, so all of this talk of a bigger hit east of that area yesterday and last night was just setting people up for failure. A bit of snow, and enjoy the rain, and then the Uconn win this weekend. Be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Would be bizzare if ALB gets 14 inches from this and winds up with 100 for the season! I only need 4 @ GFL for 100". Elevations will do very well. ALL snow tools show snow AAA 1K feet for ENY and the northern Berkshires and SVT. Below 1K will start as a mix or rain before a change to all snow by pre-dawn hours of Friday. How big still depends on the two aspects of the forecast that I still don't feel too confident on 1) track 2) Strength. The UK has been the most consistent model IMO on this storm and the GFS is similar to it. The 850 and 700 LP tracks favor a Catskill-CD Crusher and a S'rn Green N'rn Berkshires thump as well. If go with EC and ECEN blend, still looks good for WNE but only modest accums across ENY. Due to the wx as of late I have decided to go incognito! Andy... always finding a way for the deep interior to snow. UK has been most consistent ever since it got rid of the Cincy/Buffalo track... but it definitely is prone to extreme solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man everything looks good..and yet some folks. are just slitting their throats..WSW's up..hills look to do well. and even some lower spots..and still death is in the air. Don't get it I really want this to do well IMBY (good chance), but I want my coastal peeps to bathe in the glory of wet pasty poweline downing, basketball hoop bending goodness. I have shear pins stockpiled, might even wheel the snowblower back out of the shed Thursday after skiing. I want Pete's flight to get out on time, but then BDL to shut down (is flying out of there ok? we have Jetblue tix for August) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Give it until 12z to solidify any trends. Whoa back up! Logic like that isn't allowed here. We don't want to hear anymore of your sensible propaganda in here again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Maybe..but the Euro was good for many of us. GFS is too far west..12z will correct east. GGEM looks good. We're fine.. Ukie always too far west and amped Contrary to what the weenies say the Euro sucked for you with probably only a couple slushy inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 All models showing a pretty windy event anyways... A wind driven rainstorm is so much more exciting than a mundane rainstorm I'm not expecting much wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If the 12z runs keep moving towards the GFS, many weenies are going to need heavy heavy prozac. Already noting some increased tension in people's posts. I know it's probably the last realistic threat for many of us so it's disappointing if it goes to hell especially when the model consensus was a big snowstorm within 72 hrs but that's just the way it goes, not worth getting upset over really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I want Pete's flight to get out on time, but then BDL to shut down (is flying out of there ok? we have Jetblue tix for August) I think BDL will re-open by August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Unless it has a drum with like 3" tines, Then No It was like rotating fast and throwing stuff up. Just took a look at a couple locations for tomorrow... on twisterdata for 06z GFS... Looks like I warm aloft right after precip ends... pretty near perfect lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Contrary to what the weenies say the Euro sucked for you with probably only a couple slushy inches It was borderline up that way. Something like one degree F is all the difference, possibly, but the lift he had and his elevation may help tip the scale. Either way, I'm just gonna wait and see what happens in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Andy... always finding a way for the deep interior to snow. UK has been most consistent ever since it got rid of the Cincy/Buffalo track... but it definitely is prone to extreme solutions. UK has a very good track record in late march thru early may...does well on cut-offs EUS. Also you have to know the systematic errors it has as well and make adjustments from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Andy... always finding a way for the deep interior to snow. UK has been most consistent ever since it got rid of the Cincy/Buffalo track... but it definitely is prone to extreme solutions. It went from: BTV-KBEV-CC-just outside of BM-back west over sne. Yea...solid as a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Contrary to what the weenies say the Euro sucked for you with probably only a couple slushy inches Will and Scooter both said it was mostly snow excpet for around hour 54... As you know it's always a bit too warm..esp in asetup like this in early april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 We need a strong system crossing the bm or just inside, outside of the mountains, the rest of us can lose in two scenarios, one obviously a west track and two a weaker storm, if we dont get the heavy precip we dont get the dynamical cooling......this time of year it better be thumping on the cp to get accumulations, light to moderate precip just wont cut it this time of year. Hopefully 12z solutions are wound up and near the bm, the srefs were a bad start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If the 12z runs keep moving towards the GFS, many weenies are going to need heavy heavy prozac. Already noting some increased tension in people's posts. I know it's probably the last realistic threat for many of us so it's disappointing if it goes to hell especially when the model consensus was a big snowstorm within 72 hrs but that's just the way it goes, not worth getting upset over really. Nothing is moving towards the GFS..The GFS was 100 miles east of the cape yesterday.. It moved towards other guidance as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Weaker system? At least the data relay is now being sampled accurately... and right after that came on-shore in the west, it appears the models have trended towards a coastal track vs. an off-shore/out-to-sea track. Not demonstratively so ...but there nonetheless. I do agree - also - that some system convergence may be related to said data initialization. But, I wouldn't hang one's hat on that statement I made; it was a snap observation. There is still plausibility on the table for more dynamical cooling and/or a combination of that with a slightly SE track of current thinking, and that razor measure of change would mean everything in terms of sensible impact here. That's the difficulty with marginatlity in the spring. One thing to remember is that the middle troposphere is cold at this time of year. That's kind of bankable - it's really a matter of "weather" it can be tapped into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Give it until 12z to solidify any trends. The trend seems to have been warmer and closer for the past couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Fitting end to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Nothing is moving towards the GFS..The GFS was 100 miles east of the cape yesterday.. It moved towards other guidance as always GFS op has been the most west solution over the last few runs, and it moved even further west at 6z compared to 0z. Every other model also moved west, i guess it's semantics to say that others are moving toward the GFS, but the other models moved in the wrong direction. Still time to get it right but I think there's a reason why Will and Scooter are throwing big time caution up, cause this trend might be hard to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 regional spectral model is a soaking rain at the coast with a blue bomb for the berks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The trend seems to have been warmer and closer for the past couple of runs. Yeah it has, but we'll have to see if 12z continues the trend or does it back off. The 09z SREFs look like they go over Chatham and east of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah it has, but we'll have to see if 12z continues the trend or does it back off. The 09z SREFs look like they go over Chatham and east of BOS. The SREFs, like the NAM, were over Africa yesterday and are still coming west, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah it has, but we'll have to see if 12z continues the trend or does it back off. The 09z SREFs look like they go over Chatham and east of BOS. The SREFs, like the NAM, were over Africa yesterday and are still coming west, though. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 HPC track is not "just inside the BM." They have the low just south of Montauk Point by 12z Fri. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php Hpc's tracks the low from just inside the BM thru the Bay of Fundy at 975 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 How'd that song go? 'Here comes the rain de de de de' Seriously it is the end of March/early April, we need everything to go absolutely perfect for us to get a big snow storm in here. There can't be any flirting with the 0 C line on this one. Plus we don't have the help of a strong high to our northwest to help usher in some cold air. I'm just going with the odds here and what my gut is telling me and I'm going to prepare for a lovely 35 degree rain storm. Can't wait till next week when we get back into some warmer temps. See you all on the golf course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NAM looks like it will stay the course more or less. Not enough separation from the 1st wave prevents as much digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 HPC track is not "just inside the BM." They have the low just south of Montauk Point by 12z Fri. http://www.hpc.ncep....basicwx_wbg.php Thx for posting....didn't look. Looks like the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will and Scooter both said it was mostly snow excpet for around hour 54... As you know it's always a bit too warm..esp in asetup like this in early april Listen to what you want but you should not want the Euro to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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