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Tulip Trouncer Threat III - April Fool's Joke


Baroclinic Zone

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Eh, the theme over night that is leaping out to me is that this is a weaker system over all, and one that is running up into an April sun neutralized thermal field. Cold rain. Still time - and of course dynamic cooling wouldn't necessarily be the best modeled behavior.

Weaker system?

At least the data relay is now being sampled accurately... and right after that came on-shore in the west, it appears the models have trended towards a coastal track vs. an off-shore/out-to-sea track.

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Weaker system?

At least the data relay is now being sampled accurately... and right after that came on-shore in the west, it appears the models have trended towards a coastal track.

Hpc's tracks the low from just inside the BM thru the Bay of Fundy at 975 mb

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Nice pic, Andy. :)

Could this possibly be the big one of the season? I'm probably just googly eyed based on the gfs qpf.

Would be bizzare if ALB gets 14 inches from this and winds up with 100 for the season! I only need 4 @ GFL for 100". Elevations will do very well. ALL snow tools show snow AAA 1K feet for ENY and the northern Berkshires and SVT. Below 1K will start as a mix or rain before a change to all snow by pre-dawn hours of Friday. How big still depends on the two aspects of the forecast that I still don't feel too confident on 1) track 2) Strength. The UK has been the most consistent model IMO on this storm and the GFS is similar to it. The 850 and 700 LP tracks favor a Catskill-CD Crusher and a S'rn Green N'rn Berkshires thump as well. If go with EC and ECEN blend, still looks good for WNE but only modest accums across ENY.

Due to the wx as of late I have decided to go incognito!

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What a disaster set of 00z/06z runs last night.

Starting to go back to my previous expectation of mainly rain for many of us. As I said before these things need to go perfectly and a west trend is horrible news for many of us. This isn't January when we can tickle the 850 0c isotherm... you want a solid margin of cold this time of year.

Ouch.

Hopefully the 12z runs reverse the trend but I doubt it.

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Would be bizzare if ALB gets 14 inches from this and winds up with 100 for the season! I only need 4 @ GFL for 100". Elevations will do very well. ALL snow tools show snow AAA 1K feet for ENY and the northern Berkshires and SVT. Below 1K will start as a mix or rain before a change to all snow by pre-dawn hours of Friday. How big still depends on the two aspects of the forecast that I still don't feel too confident on 1) track 2) Strength. The UK has been the most consistent model IMO on this storm and the GFS is similar to it. The 850 and 700 LP tracks favor a Catskill-CD Crusher and a S'rn Green N'rn Berkshires thump as well. If go with EC and ECEN blend, still looks good for WNE but only modest accums across ENY.

Due to the wx as of late I have decided to go incognito!

:lol:

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Hpc's tracks the low from just inside the BM thru the Bay of Fundy at 975 mb

Yeah... I'd bet you anything that track comes west with their afternoon update.

I really think the 00z EURO is pretty close to accurate given the spread right now with the GFS and UKMET warmer/west, and the GGEM nearby... its really only the ensembles, NOGAPS, and NAM that are further east.

Still a lot of time left though and if it doesn't develop quick enough, then an eastward track would be likely.

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What a disaster set of 00z/06z runs last night.

Starting to go back to my previous expectation of mainly rain for many of us. As I said before these things need to go perfectly and a west trend is horrible news for many of us. This isn't January when we can tickle the 850 0c isotherm... you want a solid margin of cold this time of year.

Ouch.

Hopefully the 12z runs reverse the trend but I doubt it.

I wish you would step back from that ledge, my frriiieeennnddd

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So Stormtracker IS coming to Maine after all.

Maybe I will say hello to him if he does... I do get out Friday.

All jokes aside maintenance is doing some kind of spring work on the grass. Removing all the dirt and piles of sand from trucks that went on grass on sides of road where snowpack was. They are using some kind of machine that is like throwing up dirt from the grass... are they aerating? (like golf)

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Yeah... I'd bet you anything that track comes west with their afternoon update.

I really think the 00z EURO is pretty close to accurate given the spread right now with the GFS and UKMET warmer/west, and the GGEM nearby... its really only the ensembles, NOGAPS, and NAM that are further east.

Still a lot of time left though and if it doesn't develop quick enough, then an eastward track would be likely.

I did not go in and read there discussion but it looks pretty weighted towards a Euro track

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John, I hear prozac is pretty good at stabilizing emotional fields.

Speaking of others I would hope. I have NO dogs in this race; I'd much rather it rained - rain rain rain.... Then sunny and mild... Then sunny and warm. Then sunny warm and humid, with thunderstorms and severe. Followed by beach weather and 2-pieces.

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Maybe I will say hello to him if he does... I do get out Friday.

All jokes aside maintenance is doing some kind of spring work on the grass. Removing all the dirt and piles of sand from trucks that went on grass on sides of road where snowpack was. They are using some kind of machine that is like throwing up dirt from the grass... are they aerating? (like golf)

Unless it has a drum with like 3" tines, Then No

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