moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ALY snowfall map on their web page nails the Berks hardest and over a foot for Pete. Has 10" in my area..... YEah--extrapolating that to my neck of the woods (10m south of VT, 13 miles E of Berkshire County) makes me feel pretty good. 33.8/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If I am not guaranteed 12"+, there might be lives at stake! yes I am kidding. But I do hope that much of New England gets clobbered. Not just elevation Power issues could be a problem You sit in a very good spot barring any jumps in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Logan, Very high porbability for the Hilltowns to get CRUSHED! Nice pic, Andy. Could this possibly be the big one of the season? I'm probably just googly eyed based on the gfs qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 anyone west of 91 above 1k looks golden, GOLDEN. oh hey there how ya doin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 DT is a c*nt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, I will say it again before the Nam comes out, I think we will see it come west to be more inline with the other guidance, But, I don't think that will be a good indicator of what the rest of 12z suite does going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 anyone west of 91 above 1k looks golden, GOLDEN. Wow, you're really going out on a limb with that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Jamming out to dudes getting amped for a rare late season smashing... just talked to a maintenance guy on campus who has a gangbang of ten men.. he is convinced the im cuming and cuming hard... game on at 12z Remind me to stay away from the pinetree state around 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow, you're really going out on a limb with that call. I already put out my snow amounts last night, whats your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Eh, the theme over night that is leaping out to me is that this is a weaker system over all, and one that is running up into an April sun neutralized thermal field. Cold rain. Still time - and of course dynamic cooling wouldn't necessarily be the best modeled behavior. Weaker system? At least the data relay is now being sampled accurately... and right after that came on-shore in the west, it appears the models have trended towards a coastal track vs. an off-shore/out-to-sea track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Weaker system? At least the data relay is now being sampled accurately... and right after that came on-shore in the west, it appears the models have trended towards a coastal track. Hpc's tracks the low from just inside the BM thru the Bay of Fundy at 975 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If I pick up 2 inches I will be lucky, and satisfied, considering the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Nice pic, Andy. Could this possibly be the big one of the season? I'm probably just googly eyed based on the gfs qpf. Would be bizzare if ALB gets 14 inches from this and winds up with 100 for the season! I only need 4 @ GFL for 100". Elevations will do very well. ALL snow tools show snow AAA 1K feet for ENY and the northern Berkshires and SVT. Below 1K will start as a mix or rain before a change to all snow by pre-dawn hours of Friday. How big still depends on the two aspects of the forecast that I still don't feel too confident on 1) track 2) Strength. The UK has been the most consistent model IMO on this storm and the GFS is similar to it. The 850 and 700 LP tracks favor a Catskill-CD Crusher and a S'rn Green N'rn Berkshires thump as well. If go with EC and ECEN blend, still looks good for WNE but only modest accums across ENY. Due to the wx as of late I have decided to go incognito! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hpc's tracks the low from just inside the BM thru the Bay of Fundy at 975 mb Always behind the curve....they cower there because it's safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What a disaster set of 00z/06z runs last night. Starting to go back to my previous expectation of mainly rain for many of us. As I said before these things need to go perfectly and a west trend is horrible news for many of us. This isn't January when we can tickle the 850 0c isotherm... you want a solid margin of cold this time of year. Ouch. Hopefully the 12z runs reverse the trend but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Would be bizzare if ALB gets 14 inches from this and winds up with 100 for the season! I only need 4 @ GFL for 100". Elevations will do very well. ALL snow tools show snow AAA 1K feet for ENY and the northern Berkshires and SVT. Below 1K will start as a mix or rain before a change to all snow by pre-dawn hours of Friday. How big still depends on the two aspects of the forecast that I still don't feel too confident on 1) track 2) Strength. The UK has been the most consistent model IMO on this storm and the GFS is similar to it. The 850 and 700 LP tracks favor a Catskill-CD Crusher and a S'rn Green N'rn Berkshires thump as well. If go with EC and ECEN blend, still looks good for WNE but only modest accums across ENY. Due to the wx as of late I have decided to go incognito! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If I pick up 2 inches I will be lucky, and satisfied, considering the time of year. I guess we only need .5" to crack 80", so that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hpc's tracks the low from just inside the BM thru the Bay of Fundy at 975 mb Yeah... I'd bet you anything that track comes west with their afternoon update. I really think the 00z EURO is pretty close to accurate given the spread right now with the GFS and UKMET warmer/west, and the GGEM nearby... its really only the ensembles, NOGAPS, and NAM that are further east. Still a lot of time left though and if it doesn't develop quick enough, then an eastward track would be likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Remind me to stay away from the pinetree state around 12z.... So Stormtracker IS coming to Maine after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What a disaster set of 00z/06z runs last night. Starting to go back to my previous expectation of mainly rain for many of us. As I said before these things need to go perfectly and a west trend is horrible news for many of us. This isn't January when we can tickle the 850 0c isotherm... you want a solid margin of cold this time of year. Ouch. Hopefully the 12z runs reverse the trend but I doubt it. I wish you would step back from that ledge, my frriiieeennnddd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Always behind the curve....they cower there because it's safe. Being coservative gives them less of a black eye in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man everything looks good..and yet some folks. are just slitting their throats..WSW's up..hills look to do well. and even some lower spots..and still death is in the air. Don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 All models showing a pretty windy event anyways... A wind driven rainstorm is so much more exciting than a mundane rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So Stormtracker IS coming to Maine after all. Maybe I will say hello to him if he does... I do get out Friday. All jokes aside maintenance is doing some kind of spring work on the grass. Removing all the dirt and piles of sand from trucks that went on grass on sides of road where snowpack was. They are using some kind of machine that is like throwing up dirt from the grass... are they aerating? (like golf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah... I'd bet you anything that track comes west with their afternoon update. I really think the 00z EURO is pretty close to accurate given the spread right now with the GFS and UKMET warmer/west, and the GGEM nearby... its really only the ensembles, NOGAPS, and NAM that are further east. Still a lot of time left though and if it doesn't develop quick enough, then an eastward track would be likely. I did not go in and read there discussion but it looks pretty weighted towards a Euro track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 John, I hear prozac is pretty good at stabilizing emotional fields. Speaking of others I would hope. I have NO dogs in this race; I'd much rather it rained - rain rain rain.... Then sunny and mild... Then sunny and warm. Then sunny warm and humid, with thunderstorms and severe. Followed by beach weather and 2-pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man everything looks good..and yet some folks. are just slitting their throats..WSW's up..hills look to do well. and even some lower spots..and still death is in the air. Don't get it Well, it sucks that it doesn't look as good as it did last night....especially for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Give it until 12z to solidify any trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I did not go in and read there discussion but it looks pretty weighted towards a Euro/Nam track It looks weighted towards a 12 hour old consensus, like it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Maybe I will say hello to him if he does... I do get out Friday. All jokes aside maintenance is doing some kind of spring work on the grass. Removing all the dirt and piles of sand from trucks that went on grass on sides of road where snowpack was. They are using some kind of machine that is like throwing up dirt from the grass... are they aerating? (like golf) Unless it has a drum with like 3" tines, Then No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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