ChrisM Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 going home this weekend again, should be a 9-12" job I think for my location at 1000'. School's gonna get the shaft a little bit I think though, 4-8 for storrs. 5-10 tolland. 4-8 bdl. 3-5 hfd...slushy accumulation down toward HVN and Bridgeport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 on the wxrisk fb page (as of yesterday). firewall blocks fb here I think Here it is anyway... May not happen, but provided some rub fodder, anywho....gotta clear the pipes in the mornin', 'ya know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I best warn my sister. ....I'll have to enjoy it vicariously from VA/MD....... Logan, Very high porbability for the Hilltowns to get CRUSHED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Dylan Drier's blog on WHDH from 6AM: Amount of precip: A lot of water...1-2" of water likely Precip Type: Ahh...there's the rub. A storm crossing SE of Nantucket would give us 6-12" of snow (about 8" in Boston) and that would be a heavy, wet snow that sticks to trees and power lines and with gusty winds, power outages would be likely. A storm crossing through CT would produce 1-2" of heavy rain and winds would still be gusty, but power outages would not be as likely. As of right now I think we'll see rain showers late Thursday into Thursday night. Heavy rain is possible in most areas early Friday morning. Then as colder air works in and winds gust out of the NW, rain should change to snow through the morning. This obviously would cut back on accumulations, but even 3-6" of heavy, wet snow could create damage. Higher elevations, closer to the colder part of the atmosphere, have the best chance of seeing more snow than rain and accumulations could be higher than 6". Heavy downpours of snow (thundersnow if it develops) will be the wrench in the forecast because if that develops, it pulls down the colder air from the higher levels of the atmosphere, and more towns (even lower elevations) would see accumulating snow. Precipitation should lighten up significantly after 2pm Friday. We'll see increasing sunshine over the weekend.Please know that I'm giving you my best forecast based on the information as I see it now and based on the trend in the data. A new model comes out every 6 hours, so I'm anxiously waiting for them to be able to provide updates. Trust me...it's my Friday too so I wanna know what the heck is going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Storm will meet my expectations as consensus modeled. Maybe a few flakes before mucho raino here. Plenty of time for the inevitable shift inside of 24-48 either direction. Models had "ensemble" and sref support last bust too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Storm will meet my expectations as consensus modeled. Maybe a few flakes before mucho raino here. Plenty of time for the inevitable shift inside of 24-48 either direction. Models had "ensemble" and sref support last bust too. Any hunches east, west, or current? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Dylan Drier's blog on WHDH from 6AM: Amount of precip: A lot of water...1-2" of water likely Precip Type: Ahh...there's the rub. A storm crossing SE of Nantucket would give us 6-12" of snow (about 8" in Boston) and that would be a heavy, wet snow that sticks to trees and power lines and with gusty winds, power outages would be likely. A storm crossing through CT would produce 1-2" of heavy rain and winds would still be gusty, but power outages would not be as likely. As of right now I think we'll see rain showers late Thursday into Thursday night. Heavy rain is possible in most areas early Friday morning. Then as colder air works in and winds gust out of the NW, rain should change to snow through the morning. This obviously would cut back on accumulations, but even 3-6" of heavy, wet snow could create damage. Higher elevations, closer to the colder part of the atmosphere, have the best chance of seeing more snow than rain and accumulations could be higher than 6". Heavy downpours of snow (thundersnow if it develops) will be the wrench in the forecast because if that develops, it pulls down the colder air from the higher levels of the atmosphere, and more towns (even lower elevations) would see accumulating snow. Precipitation should lighten up significantly after 2pm Friday. We'll see increasing sunshine over the weekend.Please know that I'm giving you my best forecast based on the information as I see it now and based on the trend in the data. A new model comes out every 6 hours, so I'm anxiously waiting for them to be able to provide updates. Trust me...it's my Friday too so I wanna know what the heck is going on Dylan "The GFS" Drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Might get 6.00000000001"... but that would be a suprise for me. No. I don't lose weather bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam038 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Dylan Drier's blog on WHDH from 6AM: Amount of precip: A lot of water...1-2" of water likely Precip Type: Ahh...there's the rub. A storm crossing SE of Nantucket would give us 6-12" of snow (about 8" in Boston) and that would be a heavy, wet snow that sticks to trees and power lines and with gusty winds, power outages would be likely. A storm crossing through CT would produce 1-2" of heavy rain and winds would still be gusty, but power outages would not be as likely. As of right now I think we'll see rain showers late Thursday into Thursday night. Heavy rain is possible in most areas early Friday morning. Then as colder air works in and winds gust out of the NW, rain should change to snow through the morning. This obviously would cut back on accumulations, but even 3-6" of heavy, wet snow could create damage. Higher elevations, closer to the colder part of the atmosphere, have the best chance of seeing more snow than rain and accumulations could be higher than 6". Heavy downpours of snow (thundersnow if it develops) will be the wrench in the forecast because if that develops, it pulls down the colder air from the higher levels of the atmosphere, and more towns (even lower elevations) would see accumulating snow. Precipitation should lighten up significantly after 2pm Friday. We'll see increasing sunshine over the weekend.Please know that I'm giving you my best forecast based on the information as I see it now and based on the trend in the data. A new model comes out every 6 hours, so I'm anxiously waiting for them to be able to provide updates. Trust me...it's my Friday too so I wanna know what the heck is going on Ahhhhhh...as if the seniors at my school need another reason to continue their case of Senioritis. Can't wait for the snow day questions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Melissa Mack of WBZ Boston blog: With that being said, let’s talk about this April Fools Day 2011. We are watching the newest model runs closely as a coastal low is now being depicted by the 3 most reliable model sources – NAM, GFSx, and the EURO. However, it’s the track of the storm that is becoming very tricky. The NAM shows the coldest (farthest east) solution while the EURO has the surface low passing across eastern Mass and the GFSx has the warmest solution with the vortex of the low passing through central Mass. If we take a model blend, it would turn out as a rain/snow mix for southeastern Mass/Cape/Islands… mix and snow for the North Shore through Boston down to Worcester… and an all-snow event for areas north and west of 495. There are QPF amounts of 1-2″ amongst the models which could mean a 6-12″ snow event (~ 10:1 ratio) for areas that maintain all snow. As you know, we are still 36-48 hours out from this storm which is plenty of time for models to fluctuate. However, it’s important to be prepared for a nor’easter. Winds will gust from 25-50 mph from the northeast as well. As we say for many winter storms, ‘nowcasting’ is going to be key for this storm that departs quickly Friday evening/night. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 WCVBs Mike Wankum (I think): However, a second storm will form along The Carolina Coast and that one is not likely to miss us. It will come much closer to us, causing precipitation to overspread our area later Thursday or Thursday Night. Right now, it looks like a close call between heavy, wet snow and heavy rain. As of now, I would say the very best chance for a significant amount of heavy, wet snow (6-12"+) would be across The Berkshires, The Monadnock Region of N.H. (in fact all of Vt., most of N.H and much of Maine will likely get a very heavy, wet snowstorm), and the higher elevations of Worcester County. The risk of power outages in those areas will be high. But, closer to Boston, heavy, wet snow or a mix of heavy wet, snow and rain MAY change to rain (not certain at this time) sometime during Thursday Night, limiting accumulations some. South and East of I 95 has a somewhat stronger chance of a change to rain and Cape Cod should get mainly rain. Winds will also become strong from the E-NE along the coast late Thursday and Thursday Night. Precipitation will come to an end sometime during the day on Friday or Friday evening at the latest. Skies will partially clear over the weekend, but it will be windy and chilly Saturday (41-49) and somewhat sunnier, breezy and a bit milder Sunday (48-56). THE TRACK OF THE STORM WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE, so please follow our updates, as this is subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Dylan "The GFS" Drier But she's hawt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Any hunches east, west, or current? No hunches haven't been following closely. I have zero trust in the models outside of 12-24 hours. I think all solutions have equal weight from a miss to a west track. There are points to be made for each Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That Zany Ski and Surf Wxman Tim Kelley via his twitter: I prefer double digits for This storm, 15"-25". Berkshires Bull's Eye of 31" at Savoy 26 minutes ago via web Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Noyes on Twitter: @JWandLori @DanielleNiles Still waiting to see who the joke's really on. Gonna b tuf 2 hold cold in Boston proper w/this setup sfc & aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 If the NAM comes in looking like the GFS, then I'd be concerned. Absolutely no way that happens... it would at least do it gradually over time. I think the 00z EURO is a good compromise... track over the Canal would probably bring snows to a very widespread spatial area of New England. With a track like that, at least 80% of New England gets significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Eh, the theme over night that is leaping out to me is that this is a weaker system over all, and one that is running up into an April sun neutralized thermal field. Cold rain. Still time - and of course dynamic cooling wouldn't necessarily be the best modeled behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Eh, the theme over night that is leaping out to me is that this is a weaker system over all, and one that is running up into an April sun neutralized thermal field. Cold rain. Still time - and of course dynamic cooling wouldn't necessarily be the best modeled behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Eh, the theme over night that is leaping out to me is that this is a weaker system over all, and one that is running up into an April sun neutralized thermal field. Cold rain. Still time - and of course dynamic cooling wouldn't necessarily be the best modeled behavior. I have my toaster ready... Still an issue at 1000 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 No hunches haven't been following closely. I have zero trust in the models outside of 12-24 hours. I think all solutions have equal weight from a miss to a west track. There are points to be made for each I think we can rule out the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Eh, the theme over night that is leaping out to me is that this is a weaker system over all, and one that is running up into an April sun neutralized thermal field. Cold rain. Still time - and of course dynamic cooling wouldn't necessarily be the best modeled behavior. John, I hear prozac is pretty good at stabilizing emotional fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I need Will and Scooter to talk me off the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ALY snowfall map on their web page nails the Berks hardest and over a foot for Pete. Has 10" in my area..... If your area gets 10" out just west of ALB, the coastal plain will likely have trouble. Given that none of the meso-scale models look anything like the Globals, something has to give. All meso-scale models are still a big hit for the coastal plain and adjacent hills, but as you head into the deeper interior, some of the Globals are a better hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Eh, the theme over night that is leaping out to me is that this is a weaker system over all, and one that is running up into an April sun neutralized thermal field. Cold rain. Still time - and of course dynamic cooling wouldn't necessarily be the best modeled behavior. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I need Will and Scooter to talk me off the ledge There's no ledge..those of us in the elevated interior are in good shape. ..If the Euro comes west again..then we can re-evaluate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I need Will and Scooter to talk me off the ledge Kidding right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I need Will and Scooter to talk me off the ledge I don't think you need to worry about that right now. Evaluate after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Kidding right? If I am not guaranteed 12"+, there might be lives at stake! yes I am kidding. But I do hope that much of New England gets clobbered. Not just elevation Power issues could be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 anyone west of 91 above 1k looks golden, GOLDEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Jamming out to zepplin getting amped for a rare late season smashing... just talked to a maintenance guy on campus who has a beard of ten men.. he is convinced the storm is coming and coming hard... game on at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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