moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 2011 Lawn Thread cancel. Guess there will be some snow in the region. I guess we'll have a much better idea about how this will play out in about 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I might get to pass Scooter, Ray and some others in the totals if this verifies like BOX thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS is going to be wrong on this Monadnocks are still getting crushed regardless. The one thing I do like is that we are finally warming up way up here... that last storm I knew was missing everyone south when the confluence was so strong that we started running 5-10F colder than guidance up this way (especially at the summit H87-H85 level). This morning the summit is 15F warmer than it was yesterday morning and all elevations are running 5-7F warmer than our 24 hour guidance. I saw that, and then wasn't surprised at the overnight shift slightly westward in the models. Also, 3 days of intense NNW winds drilling cold air in from Canada have abated and we now are seeing a light return flow. Everyone may laugh, but if the summit here (also watch MWN) starts running colder than 24 hour guidance, it usually means there's a push south on the models and low tracks (when lows are forecast to track under us)... if we are running warmer than guidance, there's usually a model shift north and westward. It doesn't always matter, but it definitely was a good precursor to that last event that completely missed everyone north of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro argues for a dryslot to come flying in by 12z, which would be good since the mild air is working in, but even the euro is very marginal after looking at the weenie maps..esp south of the Pike. Hopefully it ticks east. Was the op run east or west of the Euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Was the op run east or west of the Euro ens? West of the euro ensembles. That's usually what you expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 West of the euro ensembles. That's usually what you expect. So upon verification time..do the storms typically end up tracking closer to the op or ensemble mean? Assuming they typically are never on top of each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 From HPC: BY THURS... YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHRTWV WILL INDUCE ANOTHER SFC REFLECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL FOLLOW ROUGHLY THE SAME PATH AS THE FIRST BUT BECOMES MUCH STRONGER MUCH MORE QUICKLY. THIS TREND HAS BEEN NOTED FROM 24 HOURS AGO... BUT THE TRACK/TIMING/DEPTH CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE... AND LOOSE CONSENSUS CLUSTERS WITH THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z-00Z ECMWF SO HPC USED MAINLY THOSE IN THE BLEND THIS PD. THIS LED TO SIGNIFICANT SNWO TOTALS TO NEW-ENG... INCLUDING 15-18 INCHES IN CT/MA AND OVER A FOOT TO A LARGE SURROUNDING SECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So upon verification time..do the storms typically end up tracking closer to the op or ensemble mean? Assuming they typically are never on top of each other I think in this setup, usually the op wins because the higher resolution allows the models to depict the dynamics better. However, it doesn't mean it can't adjust 30 or 40 miles in either direction. The thing about the euro ensembles, is that they are high resolution for ensembles...I think even better resolution than the GFS op. I'd feel a lot better if the 12z runs adjust slightly east. The 06z GFS op went a pube east, but it's still pretty warm. The euro is probably a tree top disaster for Tolland...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think in this setup, usually the op wins because the higher resolution allows the models to depict the dynamics better. However, it doesn't mean it can't adjust 30 or 40 miles in either direction. The thing about the euro ensembles, is that they are high resolution for ensembles...I think even better resolution than the GFS op. I'd feel a lot better if the 12z runs adjust slightly east. The 06z GFS op went a pube east, but it's still pretty warm. The euro is probably a tree top disaster for Tolland...lol. I should say that many times we see the models sort of adjust towards each other, but whether it's towards the ensembles or op depends on how dynamic that setup is. I'd have to hedge towards the op run in this, but like I said...it doesn't mean that the op run won't wobble 50 miles in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think in this setup, usually the op wins because the higher resolution allows the models to depict the dynamics better. However, it doesn't mean it can't adjust 30 or 40 miles in either direction. The thing about the euro ensembles, is that they are high resolution for ensembles...I think even better resolution than the GFS op. I'd feel a lot better if the 12z runs adjust slightly east. The 06z GFS op went a pube east, but it's still pretty warm. The euro is probably a tree top disaster for Tolland...lol. LOL...hopefully every OAk in my yard is torn apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 From HPC: BY THURS... YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHRTWV WILL INDUCE ANOTHER SFC REFLECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL FOLLOW ROUGHLY THE SAME PATH AS THE FIRST BUT BECOMES MUCH STRONGER MUCH MORE QUICKLY. THIS TREND HAS BEEN NOTED FROM 24 HOURS AGO... BUT THE TRACK/TIMING/DEPTH CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE... AND LOOSE CONSENSUS CLUSTERS WITH THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z-00Z ECMWF SO HPC USED MAINLY THOSE IN THE BLEND THIS PD. THIS LED TO SIGNIFICANT SNWO TOTALS TO NEW-ENG... INCLUDING 15-18 INCHES IN CT/MA AND OVER A FOOT TO A LARGE SURROUNDING SECTION. Nudity..pure frontal nudity right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Cautious for some interior areas it seems........ 28.7/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Congrats 06z ensembles for getting a clue. Looks like the go just east of the Cape, but a big shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Congrats 06z ensembles for getting a clue. Looks like the go just east of the Cape, but a big shift west. Thats another big jump west, 0z Ensembles were a smidge east of the BM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thats another big jump west, 0z Ensembles were a smidge east of the BM.. I'm fully prepared for a 36F rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Cautious for some interior areas it seems........ 28.7/21 Yeah but I think those probabilities look low because of the time frame the snow falls... its sort of split between day 2 and day 3 on their maps. Day 2 has a small probability of 8"+ over Kevin's house. I think they don't have moderate probabilities just because its spread out over the two periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm fully prepared for a 36F rain. You are definitely, definitely still in the game. Looking at the ensembles if this does tick east, BOS has a blue snow bomb. Just hope on Thursday it isn't 40 degrees when the clouds roll in... it'd be much better to start this after some radiational cooling in the early evening. I'd still love to be either at Kevin's or Will's... both near 1,000ft in the sweet spot. Actually HubbDave might be in a slightly better position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm fully prepared for a 36F rain. I think we see things tick back SE today, Looks like most of the models have made and are done with NW trend,(Hopefully) Most of the storms this year came back SE in the last 24-48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah but I think those probabilities look low because of the time frame the snow falls... its sort of split between day 2 and day 3 on their maps. Day 2 has a small probability of 8"+ over Kevin's house. I think they don't have moderate probabilities just because its spread out over the two periods. Makes sense--especially in light of the 12-18" they reference in their discussion for parts of the region (hmmmmm, where could that be?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think we see things tick back SE today, Looks like most of the models have made and are done with NW trend,(Hopefully) Most of the storms this year came nack SE in the last 24-48 hrs Most have lately but I'm not counting on it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You are definitely, definitely still in the game. Looking at the ensembles if this does tick east, BOS has a blue snow bomb. Just hope on Thursday it isn't 40 degrees when the clouds roll in... it'd be much better to start this after some radiational cooling in the early evening. I'd still love to be either at Kevin's or Will's... both near 1,000ft in the sweet spot. Actually HubbDave might be in a slightly better position I think we see things tick back SE today, Looks like most of the models have made and are done with NW trend,(Hopefully) Most of the storms this year came back SE in the last 24-48 hrs Yeah they could...but I'm prepared for it. It's a very dynamic system, but any hope of a se trend is going to depend on the kicker. Hopefully that feature is a little faster moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Most have lately but I'm not counting on it here. We shall see, It has marginal effect here, As long as we don't see another NW shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, even the warm gfs gives me a few inches so I'm in a good spot I guess. Can't complain for early April. 20-30 mile shift east on the 12 runs today and no change or a slight move west on the nam and then we'll be good. But as long as the euro doesn't warm more then last run I'll be ok. It's close though. The BOX map has me at 8" and not to far to my east has 1"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah they could...but I'm prepared for it. It's a very dynamic system, but any hope of a se trend is going to depend on the kicker. Hopefully that feature is a little faster moving in. I just dont think the GFS has the right idea, It would be very rare for LP to track over me here, But there could be a 1st, I think the track the Euro has over the canal or outer cape is where this ends up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm sure it's way too premature to answer accurately. But, best guess of when rain might flip to snow? The western zones have either 30 or 40 pop of rain on Thursday and have snow on Thursday night. No reference to timing. It would be funny if the gfs qpf played out. We'd have :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, even the warm gfs gives me a few inches so I'm in a good spot I guess. Can't complain for early April. 20-30 mile shift east on the 12 runs today and no change or a slight move west on the nam and then we'll be good. But as long as the euro doesn't warm more then last run I'll be ok. It's close though. The BOX map has me at 8" and not to far to my east has 1"... You generally don't look at the Euro for temps, Its usually always to warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I just dont think the GFS has the right idea, It would be very rare for LP to track over me here, But there could be a 1st, I think the track the Euro has over the canal or outer cape is where this ends up.. I hope so. I'll be happy with anything over 6". Need 15.1 to get to 100" so that's a bit of a challenge. It's interesting how quick tv changes with the models. 7 News today now has no accumulation at the coast with a few inches inland and 6+ in the hills...after saying a foot is likely in Boston yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I hope so. I'll be happy with anything over 6". Need 15.1 to get to 100" so that's a bit of a challenge. It's interesting how quick tv changes with the models. 7 News today now has no accumulation at the coast with a few inches inland and 6+ in the hills...after saying a foot is likely in Boston yesterday. Most like to rip and read the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I hope so. I'll be happy with anything over 6". Need 15.1 to get to 100" so that's a bit of a challenge. It's interesting how quick tv changes with the models. 7 News today now has no accumulation at the coast with a few inches inland and 6+ in the hills...after saying a foot is likely in Boston yesterday. That forecast you just described is not a whole lot different than BOX's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The other thing we don't want is for that last piece of energy to trend stronger and dig the trough earlier. That would kick the s/w responsible for our cyclogenesis off to the north. We don't want that..we want to keep this somewhat progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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