bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Anyone know what the Euro ensembles are looking like? ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Not liking this at all since I'm in BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What an FU to the coast..lol. Pretty bullish for ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Really depressing for the coast. What an FU to the coast..lol. Pretty bullish for ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Really depressing for the coast. I'm surprise it's such a sharp cutoff to be honest, but it could happen. Dec '96 had such a cutoff. Still time either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Oh man I'm just seeing the 00z models... wow the GFS is a big hit and the EURO looks purty as well. Winter Storm Watch from BTV for 7-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Pardon me as we on the Atlantic coast of Mass. seem less enthused Hoping for another shift SE -- something like the 00z NAM would be excellent. I'd settle for the Euro. Oh man I'm just seeing the 00z models... wow the GFS is a big hit and the EURO looks purty as well. Winter Storm Watch from BTV for 7-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Pardon me as we on the Atlantic coast of Mass. seem less enthused Hoping for another shift SE -- something like the 00z NAM would be excellent. I'd settle for the Euro. Haha yeah I posted that its going to be a battle between the far interior and the coastal zones... if one gets heavy snow the other is either getting nada or rain. The area that's getting crushed regardless seems to be the high terrain in the ORH hills back towards the east slopes and Berkshires. I highly doubt this tracks like the 00z GFS... a EURO is a much better climo track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 6z GFS looks about the same as 00z through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Sorry in advance for not being able to get the formatting to hold. INCORPORATED THE 18Z TUE GFS WITH THE 12Z TUE/0Z WED ECMWF TOWARDSTHE LATEST FCST. PUT GREATER WEIGHT TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH ITSBETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. FELT THE 0Z WED GFS WAS A STRONGOUTLIER AND THE 0Z NAM IS NOT IN ACCORDANCE WITH EXPECTED POSITIVENAO TREND. OVERALL...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS HAVEWOBBLED IN TERMS OF BOTH LOW TRACK AND TIMING. THIS WILL ULTIMATELYIMPACT THE OUTCOME OF PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW ISEXPECTED. ONE NOTEWORTHY TREND CONCERNS FORECAST MODEL H85-H7THICKNESSES WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED A WARMING TREND TO THE WEST AND AMORE WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE THRU WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEWENGLAND. DETAILS NOREASTER (THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY)... THURSDAY NIGHT...TROF AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ASUPR LVL DIV PARENT TO THE SFC LOW ENHANCES WITH A STRONG H3 JETSTREAK ALOFT AND LEFT-EXIT RGN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT COUPLED WITHENHANCED MOIST CONVERGENCE WILL PRESS N AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW LENDINGTO THE ONSET OF PRECIP AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLANDIN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THESHORELINE... COLDER AIR WILL WRAP S BEHIND THE LOW LENDING TO PRECIPTO TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS IN CENTRAL CT/MA ANDINTO S NH. WET BULB TEMPS THRU THIS RGN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SOAS PRECIP FALLS IT APPEARS DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES WILL AID ASWELL TOWARDS THE TRANSITION TO SNOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE STRONG ONSHOREE/NE WINDS WITH A H925 LLJ 50KTS...WITH SFC FLOW POTENTIAL OF AROUND30KTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. *COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES WILL BE COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO FRIMORNING. E/NE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS E MA WILL RANGE FROM 25-30 MPHWITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. WITH SEAS NEAR THE SHORE OF POTENTIALLYAROUND 10 FEET...WITH SUGGESTED FCST SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2 FEET...THERESTILL EXISTS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING MINOR COASTAL FLOODINGALONG THE SHORE. *WINDS...WILL SEE E/NE FLOW WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35 MPH...PERHAPSGREATER ALONG THE CAPE...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE SFC AND ALOFTWILL BE STRONG IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DEEPENING AND APPROACHING SFCLOW PRES. *SNOW...WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRALINTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FCST RGN WILL CONSEQUENTIALLY IMPACT TRAVELTHRU DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL LIKELYSEE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THESE AREAS OF UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES FOR THEINITIAL PERIOD. FRIDAY...AMPLIFICATION OF THE STORM CONTINUES...NOTABLY WRAPPING DRIER AIRFROM THE SW. ITS QUITE PSBL TO SEE AN EARLY END OF PRECIP ACROSS SENEW ENGLAND AND POTENTIAL CLEARING AS A RESULT OF THE DRY SLOTWRAPPING INTO THE STORM. OTHERWISE...WARM CONVEYOR BELT OFISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL WRAP ALOFT AROUND THE SYS AND TO THE WESTLENDING TO A TROWAL AXIS STRUCTURE PARENT TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ANDDEFORMATION AXIS TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICSCENTERED TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG WARM ANDMOIST AIR CONV ALOFT OVER A MUCH COLDER LOWER ATMOS...THE BESTSNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND EXTENDINGE INTO CENTRAL MA...S NH...AND THE CT VALLEY. HAVE POSTED A WINTERSTORM WATCH IN ACCORDANCE FOR THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE ANTICIPATIONOF 6 TO 12 INCHES TO FALL MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE IS THEPOSSIBILITY OF SEEING SO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. AS THE SFC LOWLIFTS NE THRU THE DAY AND DEEPENS...WILL SEE VERY STRONG NW LOW-LVLWINDS AND MODEST CAA. ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOMELOCALES ALONG THE SHORELINE REACHING POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORYCRITERIA WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. CAA PROCESSES WILL RESULTIN THE GRADUAL TRANSITION W TO E OF RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR MUCH OFTHE FCST RGN EXCLUDING THE CAPE. *WINDS...STRONG NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THESYS AS IT RIDES NE ALONG THE E MA SHORELINE. CAA THRU THE LOW-MIDLVLS WILL LEND TO STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE MIXING OFFASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SFC. WILL LIKELY SEE THE INCREASE INWINDS TOWARDS THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE E FCST RGN WITH THESTRONGEST WINDS OUT ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. *SNOW...UNCERTAINTY STILL REVOLVES AROUND THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THESFC LOW AND RESULTANT RAIN/SNOW LINE. CAN EXPECT THE HEAVIER WETSNOWS TO BE NEAR THE TRANSITION LINE AND ADJACENT TO THE W WITHLESSER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS. FEEL BEST ACCUMS WILL STILL BE ACROSSTHE NW FCST RGN...INCORPORATING THE CT VLY...NW AND CENTRALMA...INTO S NH. SNOW WILL TAPER INTO THE EVNG HRS WITH THE TOTALACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLYFOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That's probably the short term. Congrats Kevin, Will, and Ray on the Winter Storm Watch. Me too.lol Oh man I'm just seeing the 00z models... wow the GFS is a big hit and the EURO looks purty as well. Winter Storm Watch from BTV for 7-14". Almost makes me want to stay.Almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Me too.lol Almost makes me want to stay.Almost. Ehhh ... there'll be another in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ick. Me too.lol Almost makes me want to stay.Almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man..many of us in the hills and interior are gonna get crushed. I love how BOX has the little dot of 12 inches right over MT Tolland.. I am so amped up for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ick. You pulled an all nighter...congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ehhh ... there'll be another in a few weeks. Quite sure that is the case. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man..many of us in the hills and interior are gonna get crushed. I love how BOX has the little dot of 12 inches right over MT Tolland.. I am so amped up for this Remember when you lost the faith and I told you it would be alright and that the big snows would return? You can thank me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Was hoping for a miracle. Would rather see this on the GFS too: You pulled an all nighter...congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man..many of us in the hills and interior are gonna get crushed. I love how BOX has the little dot of 12 inches right over MT Tolland.. I am so amped up for this I'd give it one more set of model runs, just to make sure. This is really walking a razor thin line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Kevin is going to jump into one of his death buckets with the chipmunks. Why? We're all snow here..if you correct for Euro warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'd give it one more set of model runs, just to make sure. This is really walking a razor thin line. I know..no locks yet. But I am excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 WCVB 5 in Bahston had me at 4 inches or so... BOX has me at 14"... hmmmmmmmm Still time for shifts to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 We usually see these west trends trickle east the last 24 hours...let's hope that continues with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Monadnocks get destroyed on the 6z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS sucks for most of us. Hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Monadnocks get destroyed on the 6z GFS... GFS is going to be wrong on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Warm all of a sudden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Was hoping for a miracle. Would rather see this on the GFS too: Remember the double E rule which in the old days was the ETA/ECMWF. NAM in those days was the ETA. NAM/ECWMF are good snows for us. I'll take that combo over GFS/Crazy Uncle Ukie any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Why? We're all snow here..if you correct for Euro warm bias LOL. It's looking real good up here but if I was down there and so far east I'd keep the rope and chair nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro argues for a dryslot to come flying in by 12z, which would be good since the mild air is working in, but even the euro is very marginal after looking at the weenie maps..esp south of the Pike. Hopefully it ticks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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