ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I remember I had to travel to Hudson Ma, on 4/1/97 for work. We got like 17" here in Waterbury...as I traveled toward ORH, it was incredible how much was on the ground...If I'm not mistaken, wasn't it like in the 60's right before that storm? I was at the driving range hitting golf balls in anticipation for varsity golf tryouts the day before the storm hit. I was in short sleeves. It was around 60F and warmer on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It was a lot of 20"+ in SE MA actually...at least N of the south coast amazing that much of the qpf fell as heavy rain before the epic changeover, and the above snowtotals are built of heavy wet snow... what a monster of a storm that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I was at the driving range hitting golf balls in anticipation for varsity golf tryouts the day before the storm hit. I was in short sleeves. It was around 60F and warmer on the coastal plain. I knew it...Is that grinder place still in Hudson, I think the name was TC Landos or something to that effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 amazing that much of the qpf fell as heavy rain before the epic changeover, and the above snowtotals are built of heavy wet snow... what a monster of a storm that was I always wonder how big that storm would have been if we didn't start of as heavy rain...even here we must have gotten an inch of rain before it flipped. Dec '92 has the same problem. Started as heavy rain except up above 1100 feet just N of here. I guess that's why Princeton, MA got 42" in Dec '92 and we "only" got 32-34". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I knew it...Is that grinder place still in Hudson, I think the name was TC Landos or something to that effect? I've probably spent about 20 minutes of my life in Hudson MA despite how close it is to here...so I couldn't tell you much about it. You have to want to go there to be in that town because its off 495 to the east. I'm always in Marlborough or Sudbury, but Hudson seems a bit more out of the way than those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It was a lot of 20"+ in SE MA actually...at least N of the south coast Cool, yeah I was just using the nesis map I think, looks like I got between 4 and 8 on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Cool, yeah I was just using the nesis map I think, looks like I got between 4 and 8 on that map. I hate the NESIS maps...they seem to under estimate the snow compared to the maps in the KU book. And its not being a snow weenie either, they definitely seem to under estimate snow, when a place gets 20", they will put a little bullseye over them and not assume anyone around them also got over 20". The map I posted is an online version of the Kocin map...no longer online, but I saved it back when I was in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I always wonder how big that storm would have been if we didn't start of as heavy rain...even here we must have gotten an inch of rain before it flipped. Dec '92 has the same problem. Started as heavy rain except up above 1100 feet just N of here. I guess that's why Princeton, MA got 42" in Dec '92 and we "only" got 32-34". The one I always wonder about is the late Feb storm last year Middlebury started with 20" of snow then got like 1-2" of rain in marginal conditions in the second half. I think some of the mountains got 60"+. Some of the models were keeping the second half of that storm as snow but then they trended warmer. A lot of QPF for February... probably around 3" total and was close to being all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack Suslak Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will what's the latest trends looking like for the Coastal plain and Boston metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will what's the latest trends looking like for the Coastal plain and Boston metro? Not good. Tonight's 00z runs trended well NW...Euro still gives BOS pretty good snow, but of course we have to worry about it trending NW again in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The one I always wonder about is the late Feb storm last year Middlebury started with 20" of snow then got like 1-2" of rain in marginal conditions in the second half. I think some of the mountains got 60"+. Some of the models were keeping the second half of that storm as snow but then they trended warmer. A lot of QPF for February... probably around 3" total and was close to being all snow. That storm was terrible...we had a foot of snow and then got over an inch of RAIN. Almost impossible to pull off. The Euro said it would be almost all snow that 00z run when it started and we'd get 2 feet. I didn't believe it, but still was hoping. Then the retro storm right on its heals dumped another 2 inches of rain. Total disaster. It really wasnt that far off from being like 5 feet of snow here. If everything had worked out just a shade different. But last year wasn't to be. Just an epic screw winter is what it was despite getting around avg snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That storm was terrible...we had a foot of snow and then got over an inch of RAIN. Almost impossible to pull off. The Euro said it would be almost all snow that 00z run when it started and we'd get 2 feet. I didn't believe it, but still was hoping. Then the retro storm right on its heals dumped another 2 inches of rain. Total disaster. It really wasnt that far off from being like 5 feet of snow here. If everything had worked out just a shade different. But last year wasn't to be. Just an epic screw winter is what it was despite getting around avg snowfall. I always fantasize about that perfect hit.. so many things have to go right but statistically it's got to happen sometimes. If the retro storm had hit the same spots that the first one hit that would have been epic 5'+ even in the valleys, both of them had huge qpf. Logan11 might have made out well in both. 1 in 500 year event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I always fantasize about that perfect hit.. so many things have to go right but statistically it's got to happen sometimes. If the retro storm had hit the same spots that the first one hit that would have been epic 5'+ even in the valleys, both of them had huge qpf. Logan11 might have made out well in both. 1 in 500 year event? Logan11 said he got 46" from the two storms. Pretty epic. But I def fantasize about what would have happend if it all was about 150 miles east. Probably 5 feet here. And you are right, it will happen sometime, but probably not in our lifetime. I hope it is though. It would be quite a sight. I know in old writings and papers, they talk about 5 feet of snow over 2 days here in the 1700s and mid 1800s. You never know how exaggerated they are, but some of them probably have a semblance of truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 SREFs are very late. Not sure I can stay up for the 06z NAM, but it probably doesn't matter anyway. Its going to be SE still of other guidance. Probably showing a dream solution for a good chunk of SNE. The key is the 12z runs. We need to see some stabilizing in the NW shift or hopefully even a wobble back SE, but not feeling very confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro ensembles seem to take it right over Chatham perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At least the euro is sort of ok I guess, but the GFS scares me..and we still have time for a nw trend. Hopefully it stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 At least the euro is sort of ok I guess, but the GFS scares me..and we still have time for a nw trend. Hopefully it stops. I still find it hard to believe that there won't be at least some sort of interaction with the first s/w coming through the Mid Atlantic tomorrow night, and especially from the 3rd s/w, aka the kicker, behind our storm. There have been many times in the past where models don't handle shortwave interaction, or lack there-of, very well when they are in close proximity with each other. It seems like models often over-amplify storms in the presence of a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You missed out on the NAM At least the euro is sort of ok I guess, but the GFS scares me..and we still have time for a nw trend. Hopefully it stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Box AFD favors snow with intense dynamic cooling, even with track slightly west of BM... also answer my question about better sampling in SW British columbia in 0Z models tonight: Model discussion... long range guidance already beginning to show signs of agreement through the weekend. All models...save for maybe 09z sref agree that first wave is unable to affect the region and shunted well S...so will keep probability of precipitation low to start. After that...the models diverge somewhat with a vigorous shortwave moving east-northeast from Ohio Valley Thursday night. NAM and sref keep the low well S...which generally is not favored given pattern shift suggested by nao trending positive...and pna trending neutral to negative. Also...observations beginning to Sample this wave as it is appearing in SW British Columbia per latest WV img. GFS and European model (ecmwf) capturing this wave well at this time...and so favor a blend of these...which are the most robust solutions. Have maintained this blend...which remain in good agreement through early next week. Friday into Sat... with models generally in fair agreement for the timing and nature of a shortwave approaching and deepening from the Ohio Valley...have used a blend of GFS and European model (ecmwf) long range guidance for forecast. Both suggest strong cyclogenesis as the wave approaches the coast and begins to affect a low level coastal front. The upper level jet associated with the front strengthens somewhat in response to significant height falls from upstream...enhancing low level baroclinicity and assisting in low level height falls. The trough aloft takes on a very negative tilt and begins to deepen to a cutoff overnight. This will aid in significant dynamic height falls thanks to the formation of diffluence aloft downstream of the trough and the upper jet increasing and sliding such that the left exit region is located on top of the surface low. Due to model agreement in this strong synoptically forced lifting...expect dynamic cooling to be significant even though the low passes west of the benchmark into Friday...yielding low level temperatures cool enough for snow across much of the forecast area. Liked the midnight crews assessment of potential impacts so will break it down again here...however note that confidence is still generally low in timing and final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I still find it hard to believe that there won't be at least some sort of interaction with the first s/w coming through the Mid Atlantic tomorrow night, and especially from the 3rd s/w, aka the kicker, behind our storm. There have been many times in the past where models don't handle shortwave interaction, or lack there-of, very well when they are in close proximity with each other. It seems like models often over-amplify storms in the presence of a kicker. Yeah you would think that, but the first low weakens in time for the next shortwave to come around and amplify. The NAO is turning + and confluence is not really there so given the s/w rounding the bend..it's not hard to disagree with a GFS type solution....perhaps not as wound up, but you get the idea. We just have to hope the GFS was to generous with that second wave, but I wouldn't say it's unreasonable. SREFs look like inside the BM and east of ACK and CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You missed out on the NAM Probably a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Box AFD favors snow with intense dynamic cooling, even with track slightly west of BM... also answer my question about better sampling in SW British columbia in 0Z models tonight: Model discussion... long range guidance already beginning to show signs of agreement through the weekend. All models...save for maybe 09z sref agree that first wave is unable to affect the region and shunted well S...so will keep probability of precipitation low to start. After that...the models diverge somewhat with a vigorous shortwave moving east-northeast from Ohio Valley Thursday night. NAM and sref keep the low well S...which generally is not favored given pattern shift suggested by nao trending positive...and pna trending neutral to negative. Also...observations beginning to Sample this wave as it is appearing in SW British Columbia per latest WV img. GFS and European model (ecmwf) capturing this wave well at this time...and so favor a blend of these...which are the most robust solutions. Have maintained this blend...which remain in good agreement through early next week. Friday into Sat... with models generally in fair agreement for the timing and nature of a shortwave approaching and deepening from the Ohio Valley...have used a blend of GFS and European model (ecmwf) long range guidance for forecast. Both suggest strong cyclogenesis as the wave approaches the coast and begins to affect a low level coastal front. The upper level jet associated with the front strengthens somewhat in response to significant height falls from upstream...enhancing low level baroclinicity and assisting in low level height falls. The trough aloft takes on a very negative tilt and begins to deepen to a cutoff overnight. This will aid in significant dynamic height falls thanks to the formation of diffluence aloft downstream of the trough and the upper jet increasing and sliding such that the left exit region is located on top of the surface low. Due to model agreement in this strong synoptically forced lifting...expect dynamic cooling to be significant even though the low passes west of the benchmark into Friday...yielding low level temperatures cool enough for snow across much of the forecast area. Liked the midnight crews assessment of potential impacts so will break it down again here...however note that confidence is still generally low in timing and final outcome. I don't think it's updated. Looks like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Was updated at 4am but it does look like yesterday. Confusing. I don't think it's updated. Looks like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Was updated at 4am but it does look like yesterday. Confusing. That's probably the short term. Congrats Kevin, Will, and Ray on the Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 6z track similar to 0z nam, good for eastern SNE... let's hope 0z was the worst of the NW push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 6z NAM seems Northwest of 00z. Continuing the trend in the wrong direction. Was updated at 4am but it does look like yesterday. Confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's red when you highlight changed discussion. That's probably the short term. Congrats Kevin, Will, and Ray on the Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 6Z is still a great run for SNE, and only a hair NW It's red when you highlight changed discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's red when you highlight changed discussion. New one should be out soon for you guys, I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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