ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 East Slope of Berks? All snow 1.1-1.2" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 All snow 1.1-1.2" of qpf. Thanks Will, this is making a mess of my travel plans.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Most of the snow on this run for SNE comes from an absolutely hellacious WCB...ala Dec '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Most of the snow on this run for SNE comes from an absolutely hellacious WCB...ala Dec '96. How's it look in southern Litchfield Co. Will? I assume based on what you told Paul I'd be dealing with like 60% rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Also.. if it bombs any farther south I'd think we would just get more prolonged E and ENE winds bringing in maritime air prior to the event. I'd think the standard idea of having it occlude as it passes by would apply. You don't want it bombing until the winds have turned NE, I think. I seem to remember a lot of storms and/or model runs where storms that bombed too far south would push warmer air into the coastal areas and would dump their heaviest precip farther south anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Most of the snow on this run for SNE comes from an absolutely hellacious WCB...ala Dec '96. Does BDL go to rain for long on Friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Another hour till the 6z NAM -- predictions? Thanks Will, this is making a mess of my travel plans.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Another hour till the 6z NAM -- predictions? I'll be asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 How's it look in southern Litchfield Co. Will? I assume based on what you told Paul I'd be dealing with like 60% rain? They have issues at 54h...but they would flip back to snow pretty darn quick. I think its a pretty big event there on the Euro, but there is def some rain/sleet contamination. The 850 0C isotherm almost goes horizontal at 54h from 20 mi S of BOS to Norfolk, CT before collapsing rapidly back to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 They have issues at 54h...but they would flip back to snow pretty darn quick. I think its a pretty big event there on the Euro, but there is def some rain/sleet contamination. The 850 0C isotherm almost goes horizontal at 54h from 20 mi S of BOS to Norfolk, CT before collapsing rapidly back to the SE. Thanks Will, man this is going to be close. I would definitely feel good about things if I were you though with your good elevation and generally superb SNE climo. spot. It is really odd to see how none of the GFS ensemble members are even close to the intensity (at least in terms of development of CCB) or track of the OP. Have you seen this happen before where the OP differs this much from the ensembles? I feel like it's something that happened once before this winter just can't remember when. Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks Will, man this is going to be close. I would definitely feel good about things if I were you though with your good elevation and generally superb SNE climo. spot. It is really odd to see how none of the GFS ensemble members are even close to the intensity or track of the OP. Have you seen this happen before where the OP differs this much from the ensembles? I feel like it's something that happened once before this winter just can't remember when. Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day that's for sure. It was a few years back but I remember in Vday 2007 the GFS ensembles stayed so far east of the OP until the last second. 12/16/07 they did the same thing as well. I do not believe the GFS ensembles right now. Maybe they are right, but I'd want to see a wobble back SE in the operational global models to believe them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, hopefully the 12z runs come in colder or at least hold. I wont complain if i get 5-6" then rain since it is april. I just hope it doesnt trend so much I get all rain. Back to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Also.. if it bombs any farther south I'd think we would just get more prolonged E and ENE winds bringing in maritime air prior to the event. I'd think the standard idea of having it occlude as it passes by would apply. You don't want it bombing until the winds have turned NE, I think. I seem to remember a lot of storms and/or model runs where storms that bombed too far south would push warmer air into the coastal areas and would dump their heaviest precip farther south anyways. I wouldn't be too worried about ENE winds since SSTs are so cold right now...probably at their seasonal minimum. But of course, you'd want the low to close off just as it comes near you since that's when you tend to get the heaviest snows. We saw this in the Boxing Day storm where most meteorologists were predicting the heaviest amounts in New England due to the track of the surface low, but it was actually Central NJ that jackpotted due to where H5 closed off as well as the H7 track, while Eastern New England had a secondary maximum that wasn't as intense. I think what we really need is the Euro's track with the GFS intensity....sounds like the CCB is a day late and a dollar short on the Euro and instead wraps around to Albany since it develops late. Interestingly, the ECM and NAM are in agreement with the late development but the 0z NAM does it in such an odd-ball way you have to wonder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, hopefully the 12z runs come in colder or at least hold. I wont complain if i get 5-6" then rain since it is april. I just hope it doesnt trend so much I get all rain. Back to bed No, you should get greedy here. Go big or go home. You are in the ORH hills...even if you are one of the lower spots in them. I'll be pretty disappointed with 5" and then rain...it would be nice to add onto the seasonal total. But I really won't be satisfied unless we get a big hit because this March sucked. Time for some climo payback. I haven't gotten emotionally attached to a big hit yet though, I'm still skeptical...but as for being satisfied, 5" and then a dumping 34F rain wont do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will, will southern NH do ok, or will it surpress like the boxer day storm did? Just curious It was a few years back but I remember in Vday 2007 the GFS ensembles stayed so far east of the OP until the last second. 12/16/07 they did the same thing as well. I do not believe the GFS ensembles right now. Maybe they are right, but I'd want to see a wobble back SE in the operational global models to believe them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will, will southern NH do ok, or will it surpress like the boxer day storm did? Just curious Suppression is the least of your worries I think. I've always been on board with the idea that a too far west track is more worrisome than a whiff SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 No, you should get greedy here. Go big or go home. You are in the ORH hills...even if you are one of the lower spots in them. I'll be pretty disappointed with 5" and then rain...it would be nice to add onto the seasonal total. But I really won't be satisfied unless we get a big hit because this March sucked. Time for some climo payback. I haven't gotten emotionally attached to a big hit yet though, I'm still skeptical...but as for being satisfied, 5" and then a dumping 34F rain wont do it. Do you think theres a realistic chance in it becoming a mostly rain event?What do you think is worst case? I'll see your answer in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Do you think theres a realistic chance in it becoming a mostly rain event?What do you think is worst case? I'll see your answer in the morning. I think worst case scenario for our area is 2-3" on the front end and then a huge rainstorm to wash it away. Best case is something pretty awesome. I'm holding out hope for a tick back SE...but if you offered me the Euro right now, I'd run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I think worst case scenario for our area is 2-3" on the front end and then a huge rainstorm to wash it away. Best case is something pretty awesome. I'm holding out hope for a tick back SE...but if you offered me the Euro right now, I'd run with it. 4/1/97? How much did ORH get again? 33"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 4/1/97? How much did ORH get again? 33"? Yes, 33"...that is a pipe dream. We'll go probably go a century or more before matching that again in April. Probably not in our lifetimes. Though technically some of that was on Mar 31. I'll probably be satisfied if we get crack double digits in this one. It seems to be trending sour for that, but the Euro not nuking way NW gives some legit hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yes, 33"...that is a pipe dream. We'll go probably go a century or more before matching that again in April. Probably not in our lifetimes. Though technically some of that was on Mar 31. I'll probably be satisfied if we get crack double digits in this one. It seems to be trending sour for that, but the Euro not nuking way NW gives some legit hope. That's incredible, I wish I had had the chance to witness that. I can't even imagine. That's the most ever in one storm for ORH right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will, you are da man delivering the euro for us owls.... My fears for the 0z nam instead came out in the gfs and euro... a deeper low with a further NW track. Thoughts: 1) again, deeper lows tend to track further NW on models --- seems a good rule for years, haven't seen any good explanations 2) compared to april 1, 1997, not seeing that big fat cold H --- let's hope that's not our achilles heel 3) the 18Z --> 0Z trend has not been our friend tonight (for SNE), but plenty of time for adjustment back SE --- it certainly has happened this year 4) was the bump NW at 0Z, that "72 hour hurdle", due to more data sampling in West coast? --- Tip? 5) I'm scared of the 6Z nam... i'll be safely asleep until Jerry's computer is back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I wouldn't be too worried about ENE winds since SSTs are so cold right now...probably at their seasonal minimum. But of course, you'd want the low to close off just as it comes near you since that's when you tend to get the heaviest snows. We saw this in the Boxing Day storm where most meteorologists were predicting the heaviest amounts in New England due to the track of the surface low, but it was actually Central NJ that jackpotted due to where H5 closed off as well as the H7 track, while Eastern New England had a secondary maximum that wasn't as intense. I think what we really need is the Euro's track with the GFS intensity....sounds like the CCB is a day late and a dollar short on the Euro and instead wraps around to Albany since it develops late. Interestingly, the ECM and NAM are in agreement with the late development but the 0z NAM does it in such an odd-ball way you have to wonder... Right.. and that's when the Euro is closing it off, as it passes by. East winds always matter, even at the seasonal minimum, and we are past the SST minimum and surface temps are marginal. Best case scenario for SNE is it shifts east and I get a couple inches on the grass at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 That's incredible, I wish I had had the chance to witness that. I can't even imagine. That's the most ever in one storm for ORH right? Yes, though I personally still maintain that we got more in December 1992. I measured more in that storm...though I wasn't at the airport obviously. Dec '92 was more like 35" for me when I stuck a yardstick in the ground at the end while it was like 29-30" for April '97...the snow isn't measured at the end for official amounts, but getting more on the ground at the end would suggest that Dec '92 was greater. Its possible there was more blowing of the snow in that storm up at the airport and maybe they had trouble measuring...certainly a possible reason. At any rate though, they were both fooking monster storms, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Right.. and that's when the Euro is closing it off, as it passes by. East winds always matter, even at the seasonal minimum, and we are past the SST minimum. Maybe it matters more that way, but we don't usually run into trouble until winds shift south of east...heck we even managed over 1" of snow on 3/21 with 30mph SElies and very marginal 850s with surface temperatures running near 40F...don't know if you got some decent snow from that. It just depends on whether you get the omega to crack through the warmth. The Euro seems like it might be a bit better for your area than mine, as we really need that 500mb low to close off the NJ coast to have a major snowfall in April here. I always question the warmer temp profiles on the ECM at this range, which is why I'd like to get the storm into the NAM's wheelhouse so we can see how dynamic cooling and any weak CAA behind the first wave affect the positioning of the rain/snow line. NAM actually did a nice job of the 3/24 storm compared to the globals, keeping the track and the 850 line well south, especially compared to the GFS. So I'd be hesitant to forecast all rain yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yes, though I personally still maintain that we got more in December 1992. I measured more in that storm...though I wasn't at the airport obviously. Dec '92 was more like 35" for me when I stuck a yardstick in the ground at the end while it was like 29-30" for April '97...the snow isn't measured at the end for official amounts, but getting more on the ground at the end would suggest that Dec '92 was greater. Its possible there was more blowing of the snow in that storm up at the airport and maybe they had trouble measuring...certainly a possible reason. At any rate though, they were both fooking monster storms, lol. Yeah that makes sense. You were in HS for that right? What a weenie storm to have while you're in high school. The best storms I had in high school were 12/9/05 and 2/12/06 freshman year. Then it was all downhill from there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah that makes sense. You were in HS for that right? What a weenie storm to have while you're in high school. The best stormsI had in high school were 12/9/05 and 2/12/06 freshman year. Then it was all downhill from there lol. Yep, I was sophmore in HS for the '97 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I don't remember the april fool's storm .. maybe I'll be able to remember it but it looks like SE CT got screwed on that one so it doesn't stand out. 10-20 for all of SE mass all the way to the canal, and for central RI... but 1-4 for SE CT. Ouch. Glad I didn't know much about weather then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I don't remember the april fool's storm .. maybe I'll be able to remember it but it looks like SE CT got screwed on that one so it doesn't stand out. 10-20 for all of SE mass all the way to the canal, and for central RI... but 1-4 for SE CT. Ouch. Glad I didn't know much about weather then It was a lot of 20"+ in SE MA actually...at least N of the south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I remember I had to travel to Hudson Ma, on 4/1/97 for work. We got like 17" here in Waterbury...as I traveled toward ORH, it was incredible how much was on the ground...If I'm not mistaken, wasn't it like in the 60's right before that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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